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AUD/USD

  • #49,081
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:14am Jul 11, 2012 11:14am
Quoting omadivi
i think understanding the fundamentals is the key for any AUD bear...when the drop begins,it will be too obvious,i cant say the aud is due for any correction, because in its climb it has done some dips...right now,am staying clear...maybe till the china data is due,depending on how high it climbs..but i have to agree that fundamentally the AUD looks very good..
Indeed, you can be in the trade technically but it is best to understand the reason for the technical move ASAP so that you can best protect yourself from changing market conditions.

I've taken my AUD bull bias to other pairs in which I think are going to have a less than optimistic outlook. They are all doing very, very well.

Going to let the USD hype settle down first. It's only gaining strength due to its perceived "safe haven" status but how safe is the USD really? Or even the JPY for that matter.

The only thing that is keeping it alive is the herd mentality.
  • #49,082
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:17am Jul 11, 2012 11:17am
Quoting Esssex
Don't look at the Aussie just as the Aussie itself. Look at the Aussie as part of the world economy and compare the Aussie with the other economies as well as the prevailing economic climate.

See if you see what I am seeing. Sure, Australia will be hit but everyone is being hit so hard it's a matter of who isn't wounded til the brink of death.

My bets will be on the Australian dollar but then again I am on a TF of weeks to even months and beyond.
I'm looking at fundamental catalysts as well as technicals.

Australia will be hit hardest, trust me, it may not suffer to the extent a direct Emerging Market will......but the US>AUS in the next couple years in this economic malaise.....Technically 1.02-1.03 has been a really good level, if it breaks here to 1.03+ best to go LONG....if it holds, best to short. This seems to be a replay of last year exactly.
  • #49,083
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:25am Jul 11, 2012 11:25am
It's not contradictory If fundamentals were in line with expectations than you would not see bubbles this is what drives markets. Expectations get out of line from what are plausible causing inflated asset bubbles and at times to pessimistic values on certain assets.
1. Reflexivity is best observed under special conditions where investor bias grows and spreads throughout the investment arena. Examples of factors that may give rise to this bias include (a) equity leveraging or (b) the trend-following habits of speculators.
2. Reflexivity appears intermittently since it is most likely to be revealed under certain conditions; i.e., the character of the equilibrium process is best considered in terms of probabilities.
3. Investors' observation of and participation in the capital markets may at times influence valuations and fundamental conditions or outcomes
I apoligize for going off topic on AUD/USD i was just trying to explain that underlying fundemntals sometimes get put on the back burner when you have expectations and a prevaling bias all betting on one side of a move which causes an extreme optimism or pessimism to take hold only to have the underlying come back when expectations exceed the underlying value.

  • #49,084
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:27am Jul 11, 2012 11:27am
Quoting Esssex

I've taken my AUD bull bias to other pairs in which I think are going to have a less than optimistic outlook. They are all doing very, very well.
Nice. Earning positive interest while sitting on profitable trades is about as good as it gets.
  • #49,085
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:30am Jul 11, 2012 11:30am
Quoting irfandbl
I know, but it would be great to go long from 1.0126
We discussed how to get rid of fear during Forex trading before. Now, I have an answer for you. Don't go to the bathroom without a map! Period.

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #49,086
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:34am Jul 11, 2012 11:34am
Quoting DaddyBear
We discussed how to get rid of fear before. Now, I have an answer for you. Don't go to the bathroom without a map! Period.

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.

HAHA omgwtfbbq, engage ROFLcopter
  • #49,087
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:35am Jul 11, 2012 11:35am
Quoting jplazard
all betting on one side of a move
Do you think thats the case with AUD/USD? I don't really see it, sentiment seems pretty divided, if anything, I would say more people are bearish on this pair right now.
  • #49,088
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:35am Jul 11, 2012 11:35am
Quoting DaddyBear
We discussed how to get rid of fear before. Now, I have an answer for you. Don't go to the bathroom without a map! Period.

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
OK Papa, will do
  • #49,089
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:39am Jul 11, 2012 11:39am
Quoting DaddyBear
We discussed how to get rid of fear during Forex trading before. Now, I have an answer for you. Don't go to the bathroom without a map! Period.

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
Fear is what he'll probably get when he turns around to flush.
  • #49,090
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:41am Jul 11, 2012 11:41am
wow...
surprise to see so much talk about fundamental now.

Quote
If you truly think markets trade based solely off fundamentals than how is it housing prices or commodity prices shot up so high over perceived 'fundamental value'. If fundamentals were the main driver of charts than every stock would trade at book value always... The name of the game is can I get a bigger fool to offload my contracts before we top out or will I be left holding the bag. Bubbles occur solely based on overshooting fundamental values the market participants perceived bias comes in and reinforces the bubble until you have expectations...

simple explanation:

1. stock value, market value or book value... do you still think accountant can do valuation better than market??? how you value goodwill?

2. housing price & commodity price bubble, its start because of very low interest rate. carry trading (now AUDUSD) is also base on interest rate. this is the fundamental of fundamental forex imho...

3. herd behavior is also fundamental things because being fundamentalist, i see market as place where human doing transaction, not chart moving up and down, crossing the MA lines
  • #49,091
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:46am Jul 11, 2012 11:46am
Quoting Esssex
Fear is what he'll probably get when he turns around to flush.
If so, just walk away. Don't flush!
daddybearforex. com
  • #49,092
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:51am Jul 11, 2012 11:51am
The AUD is a bit divided at this level but it is reverred more than any major pair at the moment other than DX. The interest rate, low unemployment, IMF saying it will be the best performing economy for the next two years gives real money funds more reason to be long this pair than any other. I could be another victim in this pair screaming that it is a mark-to-market economy where their mining and financial service/lending sector are the main proponents of the boom and get cleaned out but unlike the GFC in 08 where Australia came unscathed thanks to singapore, South Korea, China this time when you start seeing data coming out of these places Australia will be just as hard as the US sending the pair to the mid 90's
  • #49,093
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:52am Jul 11, 2012 11:52am
Quoting DaddyBear
If so, just walk away. Don't flush!
Well, that works til it needs to use the toilet again and everything piles on and the vicious cycle repeats.

A constantly growing pile of faeces that it can just keeping walking away from til it is too much to handle or just suck it up face it like male bear would and flush it.
  • #49,094
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:52am Jul 11, 2012 11:52am
Quoting Aldente
Do you think thats the case with AUD/USD? I don't really see it, sentiment seems pretty divided, if anything, I would say more people are bearish on this pair right now.
traders are divided, but volume is pretty one side...
from trade explorer here
Attached Image
  • #49,095
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:58am Jul 11, 2012 11:58am
Quoting redbox
traders are divided, but volume is pretty one side...
from trade explorer here
Wow, nice graphic....I think that is very telling..
  • #49,096
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:00pm Jul 11, 2012 12:00pm
Quoting redbox
traders are divided, but volume is pretty one side...
from trade explorer here
Cause we know retail traders who connect their accounts to a trade explorer exhibit a a whopping load of influence! This 120 lots will surely show us where the big money is headed.
  • #49,097
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:03pm Jul 11, 2012 12:03pm
Quoting HotBiscuits
Cause we know retail traders who connect their accounts to a trade explorer exhibit a a whopping load of influence! This 120 lots will surely show us where the big money is headed.
Indeed, it pales in comparison to my 0.5 billion lots.
  • #49,098
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:03pm Jul 11, 2012 12:03pm
i think a lot of martingale user here....
anyway, they do provide liquidity to market
  • #49,099
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:07pm Jul 11, 2012 12:07pm
Quoting redbox
i think a lot of martingale user here....
anyway, they do provide liquidity to market
I doubt anyone with any decent amount of capital would be stupid enough to try implement martingale
  • #49,100
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:11pm Jul 11, 2012 12:11pm
Quoting jplazard
but unlike the GFC in 08 where Australia came unscathed thanks to singapore, South Korea, China this time when you start seeing data coming out of these places Australia will be just as hard as the US sending the pair to the mid 90's
i'm confuse with your knowledge...
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