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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,241
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:52am Jul 10, 2012 3:52am
Quoting Skynet
Personally, i wait for them to break below support solidly...then take short at retracement test of support now turn resistance.

ON gbp/aud. (UNFORTUNATELY...i miss this trade...but it clearly illustrate what i was taking about here...about breaking support and turning it into resistance.

anyways...GBP/AUD chart attached below with illustrations.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-10_04-48_OANDA.jpg Size: 65 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-10_04-48_OANDA(2).jpg Size: 57 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,242
  • Edited 7:43am Jul 10, 2012 3:58am | Edited 7:43am
Quoting Skynet
ON gbp/aud. (UNFORTUNATELY...i miss this trade...but it clearly illustrate what i was taking about here...about breaking support and turning it into resistance.

anyways...GBP/AUD chart attached below with illustrations.
Here is the same for GBP/CAD. bear in mind the monthly consolidation range...and of course, the H4 s/r in front of the bearish move.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-10_04-57_OANDA.jpg Size: 77 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,243
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:38am Jul 10, 2012 7:38am
Quoting Skynet
like i said, i posted those pairs yesterday...here is the current ongoing trade.

EUR/SGD.
2nd update

Quoting Skynet
UPDATE ON eur/sgd....THIS trade is also progressing very nicely...already b/e the trade because of that silly "gap".
3rd update:

EUR/SGD has moved nicely down. currently at 1.5555. which means a risk/reward of 1:4. i dumped some cargo there...leaving some left to ride this to whatever.

charts with annotations attached
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-10_08-28_OANDA.jpg Size: 75 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-10_08-37_OANDA.jpg Size: 74 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,244
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:45am Jul 10, 2012 7:45am
Quoting Skynet
ON gbp/aud. (UNFORTUNATELY...i miss this trade...but it clearly illustrate what i was taking about here...about breaking support and turning it into resistance.

anyways...GBP/AUD chart attached below with illustrations.
this one is going well. dropped by +80 pips...unfortunately...i was too late to get in.....


Quoting Skynet
UPDATE ON XAG/CAD. here is how the trade is progressing nicely...i always keep my entry point as close to the confluence spot as possible....anyways, due to that H4 resistance...i B/E the trade.

XAG/CAD has retraced on me to B/E +3 pips. shite happens...luckily...my EUR/SGD is taking no prisoners....

Quoting Skynet
Here is the same for GBP/CAD. bear in mind the monthly consolidation range...and of course, the H4 s/r in front of the bearish move.
nOT bad too...gained +53 pips,....not as good as GBP/AUD...but still....
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,245
  • Jul 10, 2012 8:32am Jul 10, 2012 8:32am
Quoting kamifx
This pair, before London Market seems to swing between 0.9740 and 0.9780 till one of the level will be broken
As the trend is mostly Up-Trend ( according to H4 pattern)
Strong level for Buy
Buy: 0.9740 (Strong Level) (above this level is so risky)
S/L:0.9730
T/P1:0.9758
T/P2:0.9777
T/P3:0.9843
Sell Stop:0.9720
S/L:0.9735
T/P1:0.9705
T/P2:0.9685
T/P3:0.9663
Buy Position returned near T/P3 and return i guess second position will be activated soon (after 3:00)
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,246
  • Jul 10, 2012 9:23am Jul 10, 2012 9:23am
In e/a, e/n, g/a, g/n SHORT (again)
Now this pisses me off. I fell aslpeep for a while after work and I had 3 JPy trades open for entry. c/j, a/j, and g/j ALL triggered , then abruptly turned against me for a loss of 169.8p. So annoying !!! I forgot to cancel my entries before I fell asleep!!!!
F*%CKING< AS&*^$E, MOT*#$FU&^ER< SH(@#EAD !!!!

AAAAAhhhh,Breathe,........

LOL,I know, a little dramatic, but a seriously rookie ass move.
Oh ya, the real reason I wanted to write this post is because GENTLEMEN, the article below, is something you should read, and FULLY absorb. I believe we"re going into a PROLONGED downturn in the global economy. DECOUPLING !!! HA !!!! Can't happen for 50 years !!!! Sorry OUTSOURCERS !! HAHA, RUN BACK HOME TO DADDY NOW !!! HAHAHA!!

Anyways, GOOGLE: "decoupling".and "Emerging market decoupling theory". That's what ALL the western corporations thought would make them big money over the long term, after they outsourced all their home country jobs off shore, and abandoned their fellow countrymen. Thought the billions of (grossly underpaid) workers would pick up the slack in demand from western nations having their middle class workforces jobs outsourced. NOW LOOK AT EM!!!! GOOD!!! Now that they realize that a china man they pay 2 dollars a month will never afford the cars they build, they wanna start coming back home. Pay higher wage union labor, because you know what ? The American (German, Swiss, Danish) worker may cost more to employ. BUT AT LEAST HE'LL BE ABLE TO AFFORD THE CARS HE'S BUILDING. GUARANTEEING COMPANY SALES. They thought they could run "sweatshops" and sell their goods back home,to their countryme, at the same historically high prices. The one thing they didn't calculate is that, if their coutrymen don't have jobs, they won't buy your products. If everyones jobs are outsourced, theirs noone left with a job, thus, money to buy your goods.
So, anyways, now we are seeing US companies starting to rush home and restart their domestic manufaturing operations again. But will it be already to late?

The truth is, these poiticians are being led like cattle by th big bankers and campaign finance contributors. The truth though is, WITHOUT DEMAND, YOU HAVE NOTHING !!!. it's the consumer that needs to be propped up, not banks and corporations. If they bailed out MORTGAGE holders, insteead of banks, all the subprime CDS would still be "valid", and the governments could have set fixed interest rates for the borrowers to pay back the government the money, thus rescuing the banks, consumers, and the housing sector, in one fell swoop. Instead what did we get, the argument of the "moral hazard" of bailing out the consumer, because it woud encourage them to take out loans they can't afford, with the expectation, of being "bailed out". But for the banks it was all OOOOOOOKKKKAAAYYYY!!!! Wow.
Anyways, I'm upset I lost those JPy trades, and maybe that's why I'm rambling, like a drunken homeless man who used to be a millionaire before (whatever) happened to him.

Here's the article

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2012...ef=global-home

PS: GOOGLE : "EMERGING MARKETS AND DECOUPLING", ALSO, "DECOUPLING".
  • #11,247
  • Edited 10:52am Jul 10, 2012 9:41am | Edited 10:52am
Quoting vladutz112
what happend today? no move in any currency? some fundamental problem?
They're analyzing the EU finance minister meeting decisions. To tell you the truth, the plan looks promisig. They're finally getting serious about the problems.

Segregating bank bailout funds, from sovereign bailout fuds, is a great step (even though the sovereign has guaranteed the loans).This means the ECB will buy bonds directly from strugglig governments, instead of the governments making their national banks do it. This means the banks wil be operating with "hig grade" capital, and the governments will pay back their bond purchases from the ECB seperatley, after they save from their fiscal measuures (austerity). But even the austerity measures are being softened,with the FiMins agreeing to lengthen the time countries have to reach their debt targets.

So, over all, pretty good stuff. Basically just doing what everyone knew they HAD to do. FOLOW THE U.S. EXAMPLE !!!

But until we see th Chinese numbers later this week, the true direction of this market, is still UNCERTAIN.
  • #11,248
  • Jul 10, 2012 9:59am Jul 10, 2012 9:59am
Quoting 4rexx
Originally Posted by Vladutz112

what happend today? no move in any currency? some fundamental problem?


I'm not sure if it is the case right now but July - August historically the markets do slow down. This is the time when many of the hedge fund managers, commodity traders and investment bankers go on holiday. However, the good news is that on their return stronger trends should start to appear again as big money re-enters the market as these big traders will have to position themselves for the rest of the year.

Seasonality plays a key role...

While seasonaL analysis over the last 30 years might quite possibly powerful data. the question is; is it relavent to the global environment we are in NOW?
I've said it before, and I wil say it again...WE ARE IN HISTORICAL TIMES!!
Never has a union of 17, 1st world countries, given up their monnetary control voluntarily to a central authority, just to have 1/3 of it's members go bust !!

UN-F#%KING-PRECE-DENTED !!

So basically, I'm trading ANY dominant trend !! NOW IS NOT THE TIME TO BE SHY, AND STRESS ABOUT S/R LEVELS AND SUCH. YOU SEE A TRADE, GO FOR THE KILL !!! (This ain't your daddys forex market anymore. lol).

Also, th thing about slow trading months ABSOLUTELY CORRECT !!! The only reason we're seeing nice clear trending markets, is because we are, globaly, in the middle of some HUUUUUGE financial problems. But if you look back over your charts from pre 2008, you'll notice the summer months brought real "choppy" and "incomplete" trade movements.

EXCELLENT POINT !!
  • #11,249
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:14am Jul 10, 2012 10:14am
T/P3 was also Touched (excuse me i forgot to put 0 between 0.98043 ) but,
Right now the situation for USDCHF has changed and 0.9778 has broken by H4 Candle

Now it’s important support and if it won’t be broken by H4 candle in the Down trend direction we have to see the pair for next AREA between 0.9846 – 0.9863 as strong resistance area to get 0.9911,also another resistance is 0.9825 which is not very strong but causes the pair returns to 0.9785
This is for daily traders and for those eager bigger picture I suggested the levels for next 2 months before, be glad to share with you.
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,250
  • Edited 10:56am Jul 10, 2012 10:24am | Edited 10:56am
Quoting Skynet
You put it very nicely. i have heard of george soros reflexivity. i first came across this idea, beleive it or not, in jim cramer's book "mad money" (that clown!)and investors business daily newspaper. (on the articles about looking for leaders and laggards.)

ON CHINA. yes, i am with you...however, unless i am trading a solid daily/weekly trendline break and retest/bounce...i will wait for clear technical deterioration in the AUD, NZD, SGD, HKD. If you will...throw in some commodities like copper, aluminium, coal....to top it off...i will keep...

e
Speaking of Cramer (Lamer) I don'tknow if you have this in your country, but there's a poitical comedian/satyrist here (US) named "John Stewart". After the financial collapse he did some hilarious assesmennts of CNBC and Bloomberg, about how none of them saw the bubble about to burst, but they're supposed to be financial experts. Hilarious (but also DEEEEEEPLY INSIGHTFUL !!! He brings Cramer on for an interview and busts him on all his wrong prognostications of the market prior to, and during, the 2008 collapse.
GOTO:
http://www.thedailyshow.com/videos/?...cramer&start=0
And check out these videos, comedic, yet veeeery revealing


Yeah, the China thing is more of an overall, macro event, which will kick off a downturn in comms (eventually). I'll be waiting to take advantage, once the "herd" realizes the implications of a massive downturn in manufacturing in China, and what that means for the countries dependent on commodity sales, to "the worlds manufacturer". George Soros style, LOL.

DECOUPLING WASA PIPE DREAM !!!

EVRYONE, GOOGLE: "DECOUPLING" AND "ASIAN MARKETS AND DECOUPLING", TO UNDERSTAND WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT.

BTW, reading your stock strategy.... talk about culling the herd.... niiiiice!! Like the precision of a preregrine falcon !!! DIRTY !!!
  • #11,251
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:27am Jul 10, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Skynet
I am afraid it is a bit hard to get hold of info about exotics...unlike majors.

the best site i have found so far on all the countries of the world are:

#1. tradingeconomics.com . It contains all the fundamental info about every country. Including the performance of the stock market. which i think is important.

#2. bloomberg news. do a search for whatever country tickles your fancy.
e.g. http://topics.bloomberg.com/singapore-dollar/

or this for[url="http://search1.bloomberg.com/search/?content_type=all&page=1&q=denmark%20krone"]...

Cool. I'm gonna check these out.

You da man, SKY !!
  • #11,252
  • Jul 10, 2012 10:41am Jul 10, 2012 10:41am
Quoting Skynet
holy cow and shomari,

on china.,..yes, china has been buying africa like crazy. heck they gifted a massive african union building to the whole of africa. FOR FREE. yes, they entire 200million dollars worth is free.

they know that resources are limited...and they want their hands in as many pies as possible...where do we have the most unexploited resources on this planet with zero geological disasters? AFRICA. The chinese have a long time...

You are a true MARKET ASSASSIN my friend !!!!

It's sound like you have your own hedge fund over there, fingers in every relavent market.

You're right about comms not showing weakness yet. Like I said before, we make money with the "herd" now, but we are poised to POUNCE, once reality/life/fundamentals, BECOME TRULY REALIZED.

GET READY TO AMBUSH THE MARKETS EVERYONE !! I GIVE SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM BEFORE RECOGNITION SETS IN; 3 - 6 MTHS, AND COMMS WILL FALL !!!

oh yeah, so I guess I thought everyone would have seen this China situation already, that's why I thought major movements this week. Guess I was to optimistic about the markets perceprions about facing REALITY, TRADING LIFE, oh well. But I don't think they can hide from the truth FOREVER. I think China's Fridays DEFINITIVE #'s will really get this market moving. I wouldn't be surprised to see comms gap down at the starting of the next trading week.
  • #11,253
  • Edited 10:59am Jul 10, 2012 10:47am | Edited 10:59am
Quoting Skynet
2nd update



3rd update:

EUR/SGD has moved nicely down. currently at 1.5555. which means a risk/reward of 1:4. i dumped some cargo there...leaving some left to ride this to whatever.

charts with annotations attached

We're gonna have to turn this thread into an 18 and up thread because you guys are posting some SEXY TRADES !!

**CONTENTS OF THIS THREAD MAY CONTAIN SEXY FOREX MATERAL, NOT SUITABLE FOR MINORS. TRADER DISCRETION IS ADVISED !!**

lol.
  • #11,254
  • Jul 10, 2012 11:05am Jul 10, 2012 11:05am
Quoting Skynet
2nd update

3rd update:

EUR/SGD has moved nicely down. currently at 1.5555. which means a risk/reward of 1:4. i dumped some cargo there...leaving some left to ride this to whatever.

charts with annotations attached
I WILL BE BACK LATER TO REPLY TO all of shomari wonderful posts....and of course, read the NYT article linked you posted.

for now...i need to run...dump another cargo here of EUR/SGD at 1.5522 for r/r 1:5.7....the previous one was r/r 1:4...the rest...a tiny fraction...is now in complete set and forget mode ....i only have a tiny fraction left...i am leaving to run...till kingdom come.

first alert was here.

final chart update attached below:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-07-10_11-52_OANDA.jpg Size: 63 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,255
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:00pm Jul 10, 2012 2:00pm
Quoting shomari
If anyone should make a course around here it's SKYNET. But , tell you what I'll do. In the next coupe of days I'll write a post and I'll put links to all the fundamental annalysis stuff I have and you guys can go nuts.

It's really important to know the fundamentals. I mean you could replace the word fundamental analysis for the word reality and it would be the same.

since I'm here let me say. got to www.babypips.com and READ THE WHOLE THING. Just this site alone put so many of the pieces of the puzzle...
Actually it's not enough knowing fundamentals, otherwise good economists would also be rich through the markets.
You have to get an idea how the markets react with regards to new events or whatever. Some things are already priced into the markets. Sometimes there aren't even any news out there and just rumors. No matter if they are based on anything "real" or not, rumors also affect the markets in a big way. It's rather easy to assess the fundamental situation, but not as easy to estimate the effects on the markets.

Actually george soros mentions that as well. The markets tend to be irrational, not rational. And it can take a while until the markets are rational again and interpret the news in such a way that the markets drop or rise to finally reflect the real fundamental situation. He made really big money buying into bubbles and selling when it burst, but knowing when and how fundamentals are finally recognized by the markets is a big challenge. How are you gonna go about that? I think that's a big challenge that everybody needs to think really hard about.
  • #11,256
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:23am Jul 11, 2012 4:23am
short in usdcad at 1.0190 target 1.0140


http://spartan-trader.blogspot.in
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,257
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:22am Jul 11, 2012 8:22am
Today there is an important News in USA market but in general we have to see the USDCAD pair near 1.0250 (According to the Price Pattern) so my analysis is to buy deep and stick to this position till that level of course there is strong Level in the Up-Trend 1.0200
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,258
  • Jul 11, 2012 8:40am Jul 11, 2012 8:40am
Buy Limit:1.0180
S/L: 1.0160
T/P1:1.0200
T/P2:1.0230
T/P3;1.0250
Kami
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UC.PNG Size: 33 KB
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,259
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:14am Jul 11, 2012 11:14am
Maybe this is a good setup? enter after the pullback??

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #11,260
  • Jul 11, 2012 11:20am Jul 11, 2012 11:20am
Quoting mkb1272
Maybe this is a good setup? enter after the pullback??

Attachment
I make my trading decisions off fundamentals and I have been selling every pullback/rally for this pair since last week.

It sure helps when technicals confirm my analysis with a downtrend. It also makes as a very good carry trade.
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