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  • #7,781
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:31am Jul 10, 2012 1:31am
Quoting vandigo
Hi guys. Any ideas on how eur/usd is to perform in euro session today?
today eu session same as yesterday, let PA lead the way.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,782
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:35am Jul 10, 2012 1:35am
Hi emmanuel. Do you mean it would be a bullish bias.
  • #7,783
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:51am Jul 10, 2012 2:51am
Quoting vandigo
Hi emmanuel. Do you mean it would be a bullish bias.
hi,
yes, on H4, I look to trade a possible retracement back into last week' high low.
since yesterday I was looking S3 for EU H1 buy setup but did not see a good one. market is ranging with little momentum and low volatility.
I think those who trade off the M15 chart may have caught something yesterday, smaller range smaller expectation for TP.

Did anyone catch anything today?

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,784
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:24am Jul 10, 2012 5:24am
Hi,

I shorted Eurusd due to the the reasons stated in my chart.

I have closed half lot at 20 pips alr. Hoping it will break the low range of the asian range and see whether there is a chance to add position.

hope fellow traders will share their opinion on my entry.

regards,
wqiang
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 10 july EURUSD 1 HR.jpg Size: 141 KB
  • #7,785
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:38am Jul 10, 2012 5:38am
Well i opened 2 shorts this morning as it bounced off the supply zone and a TDI crossover, both trades hit TP50. I am now watching as it just hit the demand zone and TDI confirmation, could possibly go back up, will see.
By the way, i got up to late to catch the upside move that's why i was able to catch the downward move.

Good Luck
  • #7,786
  • Jul 10, 2012 6:06am Jul 10, 2012 6:06am
Quoting emmanuel7788
hi,
yes, on H4, I look to trade a possible retracement back into last week' high low.
since yesterday I was looking S3 for EU H1 buy setup but did not see a good one. market is ranging with little momentum and low volatility.
I think those who trade off the M15 chart may have caught something yesterday, smaller range smaller expectation for TP.

Did anyone catch anything today?

regards,
Not this morning only this afternoon GU.

Both GU and EUR have some S levels which they are bouncing off. Happy to be in/out quickly today.
  • #7,787
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:06am Jul 10, 2012 7:06am
Quoting Wqiang
Hi,

I shorted Eurusd due to the the reasons stated in my chart.

I have closed half lot at 20 pips alr. Hoping it will break the low range of the asian range and see whether there is a chance to add position.

hope fellow traders will share their opinion on my entry.

regards,
wqiang

hi wiqiang,

that was a good setup condition for short.
- price pullback from prev D high, also Asian session high
- bearish engulfing candle
- TDI bounce off upper BB, hook down 4 o'clock position
- good potental for breakout below prev D low.

manage well.

regards

Note: suggest you change the bar colour to see bull and bear bar in green and red.


-
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,788
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:19am Jul 10, 2012 7:19am
Hi,
Just my observation on EU H4.
Price may fall below last week' low and watch if it will push lower below fibr-e 127%. If not, look for bullish reversal pattern to go long.

Spend time and study the price behaviour and the TDI movement within the BB. Post your observations.

Trade Well!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD week 28 H4 10 Jul 10-7-2012 10-11-16 PM.png Size: 43 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,789
  • Jul 11, 2012 12:53am Jul 11, 2012 12:53am
hi emmanuel7788,

thanks for your advice and it keeps me going!
  • #7,790
  • Jul 11, 2012 1:30am Jul 11, 2012 1:30am
Hi,
Just to share one AU trade I took yesterday and highlight a few points.
- market condition is ranging,
- volatility is there but swings are 'killers' making trade management very difficult,
- look for some setup conditions and document them and use these to look for trades daily,
- consider single entry mutlple exits in your trade management, this way, you can secure smaller wins of 30~50pips easier under such ranging condition.

See attached chart.
I did not manage to post this early this morning due to poor internet connection. But this trade got stopped out at BE during the Tokyo session. Could only manage 30pips for one position, so that make it a 0.5R trade, and not good.


Regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD week 28 H1 10 Jul 11-7-2012 6-50-22 AM.png Size: 38 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,791
  • Jul 11, 2012 1:32am Jul 11, 2012 1:32am
Quoting Wqiang
hi emmanuel7788,

thanks for your advice and it keeps me going!

you are always welcome.
just post you trades and/or questions and someone here will help give comments and also answer them.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,792
  • Jul 11, 2012 2:43am Jul 11, 2012 2:43am
Hi E
I enjoy your on going contributions. Personally I am still anti eur CT moves even if 4hr signals, still not believing this market operating 'normally'. The generally very poor recent 1hr pullbacks I feel is evidence of that. Should COT data continue to show big dogs offloading their massive short positions and pa supports a change then fine. Happy to miss CT set ups until a little more solid.

Anyway Mrs V has scalped gu buy.
  • #7,793
  • Jul 11, 2012 4:39am Jul 11, 2012 4:39am
Quoting Vantage
Hi E
I enjoy your on going contributions. Personally I am still anti eur CT moves even if 4hr signals, still not believing this market operating 'normally'. The generally very poor recent 1hr pullbacks I feel is evidence of that. Should COT data continue to show big dogs offloading their massive short positions and pa supports a change then fine. Happy to miss CT set ups until a little more solid.

Anyway Mrs V has scalped gu buy.

Hi Vantage,

Thanks for your insight. I am taking a cautious approach on EU H4 and not jumping into short term swing trade. I see the TDI behaviour inside the BB will slowly erode away with low volatility sideway movements.
Have gone down to M15 for some small trades of 25~30pips and not follow the H1 method here for a while until I see the light at the end of the tunnel.

Likewise, I am sure many members here appreciate your dropping by here and sharing your knowledge and experience with us.
Thank you.

Kind regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #7,794
  • Jul 12, 2012 3:01am Jul 12, 2012 3:01am
Hi,

there are lesser H4 system posted nowadays. I would like to ask some questions and hope fellow traders can help.

I have posted two set-ups but the first one ended up as a losser but the second one ended up as a winner.

I was wondering whether the candles indicated with yellow arrow, are considered a pullback candles?

If both are pullback candles, i believe H4 setup should be correct.
And how to minimise the losses made in setup one?

regards,
wiqiang
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD H4 12 July 2012.jpg Size: 156 KB
  • #7,795
  • Jul 12, 2012 6:26am Jul 12, 2012 6:26am
Hi, I am no expert, but I would have waited to confirm the Price action on both these points. there is no conformation that the 1st candle was a correction or the start of a change of direction. Perhaps a look at the Daily direction would have given you more insight.

I have made many bad trades by being too hasty in jumping in. so now I wait for confirmation of Price Action and look for high quality trades. so prefer to trade lower time frame H1, as I can get at least 1 trade a day
"It always seems impossible until it is done" Nelson Mandela
  • #7,796
  • Jul 12, 2012 9:12am Jul 12, 2012 9:12am
I woould like to share my lesson learned from one of my last trades. I entered on the first red vertical line. My TP was at the longer white horizontal line. the second entry would have been at the second red vertical line with the same TP. I could not follow the position and the price turneda and as soon as I could get to my terminal I had to close it manually. It missed the TP by 12 pips.

My lesson learned is: you should follow your position. I know this is very basic, even then... Fortunatelly it as on demo account.

thrax
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD_H4_strategy name_20120712190428.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,797
  • Edited 10:22am Jul 12, 2012 10:16am | Edited 10:22am
Quoting thrax
My lesson learned is: you should follow your position. I know this is very basic, even then... Fortunatelly it as on demo account.
thrax
Just an observation..... There was a strong line of previous resistance, and I would be hard pressed to place my TP above that
Attached Image
"It always seems impossible until it is done" Nelson Mandela
  • #7,798
  • Jul 12, 2012 3:31pm Jul 12, 2012 3:31pm
Hello friends

I'm reading all posts...

Is it still a good system?

Thanks
  • #7,799
  • Jul 12, 2012 9:30pm Jul 12, 2012 9:30pm
Hi all

I've posted charts for my downside targets elsewhere but I have GU 5350-5335 then 5270. EUR 1900.

By then I'd expect those massive EUR COT shorts to have been sold off, surely, to allow a move back up? Anyway thats a little while off at least.
  • #7,800
  • Edited 10:38pm Jul 12, 2012 10:01pm | Edited 10:38pm
Quoting Wqiang
Hi,

there are lesser H4 system posted nowadays. I would like to ask some questions and hope fellow traders can help.

I have posted two set-ups but the first one ended up as a losser but the second one ended up as a winner.

I was wondering whether the candles indicated with yellow arrow, are considered a pullback candles?

If both are pullback candles, i believe H4 setup should be correct.
And how to minimise the losses made in setup one?

regards,
wiqiang

Hi wiqiang,

Good post and questions.

See my comments made on your chart.

We must be cautious when there are extreme price volatility which will show up in momentum indicators such as RSI.
You first H4 entry was on a Monday and the previous Friday was very bullish with strong D close. Such condtion, I would expect a strong reversal type setup before I take a sell trade. Normally wait for consolidation, and it actually showed up 2 days later with Day IB.
I did mention in my prev posts about the TDI re-entry into the BB and how price pullback or consolidates before market decide the next move.

This is evident again this week 28 with EU.

Think of how you will trade such condition and manage your trades.

regards,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: wq GBPUSD H4 12 July 2012.jpg Size: 211 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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