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AUD/USD

  • #48,961
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:29pm Jul 9, 2012 11:29pm
Quoting pip_trader
Australia is hurting like every other country, and with it's strong dependence on commodities could weaken it further (unless the dollar gets dragged down, as well).
I have to disagree, yes the economy is dependent on commodity exports but they're not weakening in any form or sense, in fact it's physically impossible to dig them out to meet China's demand today, let alone in forseeable future.
Australia is fundamentally pretty much shielded from US and Europe's worries.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,962
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:47pm Jul 9, 2012 11:47pm
Quoting stulic
I have to disagree, yes the economy is dependent on commodity exports but they're not weakening in any form or sense, in fact it's physically impossible to dig them out to meet China's demand today, let alone in forseeable future.
Australia is fundamentally pretty much shielded from US and Europe's worries.
That is valid. However, China is showing indication that they are not growing like they once were. Sure 7-8 percent is great, but the global contraction will have an impact on China thus effecting Australia. Australia's unemployment is currently 5.1 percent, but this counts underemployed or part-time workers that clock-in at least 1 hour per week. The real unemployment rate is likely 14 percent, according to an IMF article I have read. Their production and manufacturing is down from the recent March 2012 quarter and their consumer price index is up 1.6 percent. Company gross profits are down 2.6 percent.

I am not saying Australia, at this moment, has the kind of issues the EU or the US may have. Nevertheless, we are seeing slowdown from the US to the EU and emerging markets. This, in return, will eventually hurt Australia. If nobody is in high-demand for their commodities, this can hurt. This is the globalization age, and everyone is connected. It will be interesting to see the numbers this week.
  • #48,963
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:56pm Jul 9, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting pip_trader
That is valid. However, China is showing indication that they are not growing like they once were. Sure 7-8 percent is great, but the global contraction will have an impact on China thus effecting Australia. Australia's unemployment is currently 5.1 percent, but this counts underemployed or part-time workers that clock-in at least 1 hour per week. The real unemployment rate is likely 14 percent, according to an IMF article I have read. Their production and manufacturing is down from the recent March 2012 quarter and their consumer price index is...
Part time workers get government benefits if they're not earning enough, 5% unemployment is very close to full employment and speaking from personal experience anybody looking for a job is going to find one very easy.
The richest women in the world, Gina Rinehart is importing 1700 foreign workers to get her new iron ore mine up and running because there's not enough work force available locally to start the project.

The only thing hurting the economy is the strength of the Aussie dollar and the only ones suffering are tourism and manufacturing.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,964
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:06am Jul 10, 2012 12:06am
Perfect 4 hour channel support comes in at 1.0063 level. All time frame looks
Bearish for Aussie. Closed below 1.0150 on daily basis will take us to bear ride
towards 0.9970. Just my 2 cents


Quoting Whimtradr
Agreed. In fact, I just went long
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  • #48,965
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:06am Jul 10, 2012 12:06am
Quoting stulic
Part time workers get government benefits if they're not earning enough, 5% unemployment is very close to full employment and speaking from personal experience anybody looking for a job is going to find one very easy.
The richest women in the world, Gina Rinehart is importing 1700 foreign workers to get her new iron ore mine up and running because there's not enough work force available locally to start the project.

The only thing hurting the economy is the strength of the Aussie dollar and the only ones suffering are tourism and manufacturing....
I just think it will eventually effect them is all. Although government assistance is nice, that would weigh on Australia wouldn't it? It is the largest expenditure of the US and European countries budget sheets swell due to entitlements. The mining opportunities would be nice for those would are employed. I watched a program about Australia's miners that make six figures annually.

I don't know. Never been to Australia but would love to some time.
  • #48,966
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:28am Jul 10, 2012 12:28am
Quoting pip_trader
I just think it will eventually effect them is all. Although government assistance is nice, that would weigh on Australia wouldn't it? It is the largest expenditure of the US and European countries budget sheets swell due to entitlements. The mining opportunities would be nice for those would are employed. I watched a program about Australia's miners that make six figures annually.

I don't know. Never been to Australia but would love to some time.
Yeah the miners make good money and mining companies even more so, that's why the Labor government introduced the Super Profits Resource Rent Tax this month, to take more money off profitable mining companies and cut taxes for lower income earners and increase pensions.
Six figures is nothing special BTW, my girlfriend makes $110k a year by sitting in an office editing speeches for AUSAID officials... A simple welder in an iron ore mine in WA makes $250k a year easy.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,967
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:32am Jul 10, 2012 12:32am
Quoting stulic
Yeah the miners make good money and mining companies even more so, that's why the Labor government introduced the Super Profits Resource Rent Tax this month, to take more money off profitable mining companies and cut taxes for lower income earners and increase pensions.
Six figures is nothing special BTW, my girlfriend makes $110k a year by sitting in an office editing speeches for AUSAID officials... A simple welder in an iron ore mine in WA makes $250k a year easy.
That is crazy lol. How is the cost of living?
  • #48,968
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:40am Jul 10, 2012 12:40am
Quoting pip_trader
That is crazy lol. How is the cost of living?
Depends where, around mining towns you spend 15 bucks for a loaf of bread and 1l of milk I heard, in western Sydney $3.
Rent is high pretty much everywhere something goes on and unless you're living in some outback Boganville or shaggy Syd/Mel outer suburbs, a third of your income might have to go on rent or mortgage.
Petrol is around $1.20 a liter ATM...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,969
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:40am Jul 10, 2012 12:40am
Quoting stulic
Yeah the miners make good money and mining companies even more so, that's why the Labor government introduced the Super Profits Resource Rent Tax this month, to take more money off profitable mining companies and cut taxes for lower income earners and increase pensions.
Six figures is nothing special BTW, my girlfriend makes $110k a year by sitting in an office editing speeches for AUSAID officials... A simple welder in an iron ore mine in WA makes $250k a year easy.
If she makes over $100k, marry her
Mind you $100k aint what it used to be. A great country, Aussie.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #48,970
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:42am Jul 10, 2012 12:42am
Plenty of Irishman around here BTW, heaps working in construction, even backpackers... You should give it a go
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,971
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:49am Jul 10, 2012 12:49am
Quoting stulic
Plenty of Irishman around here BTW, heaps working in construction, even backpackers... You should give it a go
Lol. No thanks man. Labour just aint my thing! Much rather trade all day! plus my pasty self would crisp up
  • #48,972
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:55am Jul 10, 2012 12:55am
Hi!

I have short position and I see that on D1 the SMA 20 is working as a great support. If it can close today under 1.015x then it can reach 1.0145 (fib50) and 1.0103(fib61,8). What do u think?
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"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #48,973
  • Edited 1:31am Jul 10, 2012 1:19am | Edited 1:31am
Quoting littlemole
Hi!

I have short position and I see that on D1 the SMA 20 is working as a great support. If it can close today under 1.015x then it can reach 1.0145 (fib50) and 1.0103(fib61,8). What do u think?
Attachment
Too early for shorts.
She need to break a canal first.
I will short @ 1.0145, but now i think about long @ 1.0165 s/l 1.0145.
  • #48,974
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:43am Jul 10, 2012 2:43am
Quoting pip_trader
That is valid. However, China is showing indication that they are not growing like they once were. Sure 7-8 percent is great, but the global contraction will have an impact on China thus effecting Australia. Australia's unemployment is currently 5.1 percent, but this counts underemployed or part-time workers that clock-in at least 1 hour per week. The real unemployment rate is likely 14 percent, according to an IMF article I have read. Their production and manufacturing is down from the recent March 2012 quarter and their consumer price index is...
Just chiming in because I am one of them who is bullish on Australia as a whole.

See Australia and compare them to other countries in the current global climate. Almost every country is slowing but look at which countries are hurting more and offset them.

You will find the Australia's fundamentals are very strong in the prevailing market conditions. It is good that you understand the effects of US/EU on China and China on Australia.

But you need to see everything at the current conditions on a macro level and not on a micro level.

Look at China's government policies, look at their focus on shifting to boosting domestic consumption for growth to balance out their export orientated economy. Look at ASEAN who is a significant Aussie trading partner. Then look at Australia's economic policy.

China's inflation rate and Japan shows they have a lot of room for more monetary stimulus.

In a world where everyone is in the shit, people will look for the places where there is less shit and stay there.

As I have a TF of 1-4 years, I am snapping up AUD anywhere near parity.
  • #48,975
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:15am Jul 10, 2012 3:15am
In my view
the zone 1.0180 - 1.0210 good to add sell for my Plan
As i posted before my view down trend in weekly and daily and i will trade with the trend.
  • #48,976
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:56am Jul 10, 2012 4:56am
Quoting egkid
In my view
the zone 1.0180 - 1.0210 good to add sell for my Plan
As i posted before my view down trend in weekly and daily and i will trade with the trend.
Tomorrow maybe, but for today it's too high for sell.
http://rghost.net/39132954/image.png
  • #48,977
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:05am Jul 10, 2012 5:05am
Quoting Jonh
Tomorrow maybe, but for today it's too high for sell.
http://rghost.net/39132954/image.png
Started to sell at 1.02400 tight sl tp 1.01500 or below
  • #48,978
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:45am Jul 10, 2012 5:45am
Quoting DaddyBear
ATTENTION BEARS: (ON BEHALF OF THE BULLS)

AFTER BREAKING THE SEESAW, THE BULL DECIDED TO TAKE A TRIP ON BALLOON TO THE HIGH COUNTRY. HE IS WILLING TO SHARE THE TINY GONDOLA WITH ONE OF YOU IF YOU DON'T MIND. FIRST COME FIRST SERVE!

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
Morning there
Like you Cartoons
Which program do u use ?

I add sell @1.040 , 1.035

my view the same- above 1.0280 will be worry above 1.0320 will review my chart
  • #48,979
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:47am Jul 10, 2012 5:47am
Quoting DaddyBear
Aussie will drop one more time before she rises again.
Quoting stulic
To where, like 1.014x area?
Quoting DaddyBear
Around 1.01537 or higher.
Quoting stulic
Anything below 1.0120 I'd give up on longs, anything else I'd have to quote your certain prediction from last Friday when I said that the only certain thing in Forex is it's gonna come back to haunt you.
stulic, there was no prediction but only projection. In the dictionary of the Forex market, there is no "uncertainty".
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,980
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:51am Jul 10, 2012 5:51am
Quoting egkid
Morning there
Like you Cartoons
Which program do u use ?

I add sell @1.040 , 1.035

my view the same- above 1.0280 will be worry above 1.0320 will review my chart
Just woke up. Good morning to you too. I use NinjaTrader platform with my own custom system add-on. I don't use any experts' programs.
daddybearforex. com
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