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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,221
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:32am Jul 9, 2012 6:32am
As far as I'm concerned, I think people already know the Chinese numbers will be bad, so I'm expecting FEAR, and that means LONG, USD, JPY, and CHF this week (of course against EUR, and GBP), But more importantly , against Comm dolls (AUD. NZD, and CAD).

"But, Shomari, Comm Dolls have had grat numbers lately, what gives with the shitty analysis ?!!!!" Well, TRUE, BUT China is "the world's manufacturer, and that means when they slow down, commodities are less in demand (read back a few weeks, when I posted the article about low energy consumption in China, and how that is used as a mojor indicator globally, to guage the Chinese manufacturing outlook going forward,)When commodities are less in demand Comm Dolls go down,

So I see weakness in EUR, GBP. I also see weakness in AUD, Nzd, CAD, if Chinese #'s are bad.
Finally, overall, this week, I see a flight to safety week, RISK OFF, which means we go LONG USD, and JPY (stay away from CHF cause they might intervene, but some valid trades could possibly be made)

of course I could be completely wrong, but that's where my heads at so far this week.

USD, JPY,......LOOOOOOOOONG!!!!!!
  • #11,222
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:28am Jul 9, 2012 9:28am
Quoting Skynet
GOOD WORK TO YOU TOO. 4rexx.


If i may say this...as a sidenote: there is always some pairs, either majors or exotics trending somewhere...that is why there is never a shortage of trending opportunity to take in forex. One of the reasons why i like trend trading all pairs, 3sma style.

take a look at this post for example. the SGDs were my trades last week. See how they performed? marvelously. SGD is singapore dollar. Solid fundamentals. check their status on[url="http://www.tradingeconomics.com/"]...
You got skills sky just see some of your post thinking outside box nice not many can do that.

I think you starting to break a barrier and you will soon sse it back on your performance no doubt wish ya best mate..
  • #11,223
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:30am Jul 9, 2012 9:30am
Quoting shomari
Gentlemen, all I've gotta say this week is CHINA. They already know, China's numbers are BAD!!!!
SHORT THOSE COMM DOLLS BOYS !! With "the world's manufacturer" slowing down, expect Comm Dolls to tank this week (according to CNY data, of course, but rest assured, we are expectig REALLY BAD news)

How bad is it for Comms ?

I think it's gonna be so bad that you might even be able to short them with the EUR, and GBP, (take back the gains lost in the last few weeks).

Just food for thought guys, but this is where my is at , at the...
Eventually China will be in as much troubles as Japan is if no more.
Those who think China will be next super power do not understand that to be one one requires enough resources to be independent like USSR used to be and USA also was. China is very much dependent upon others resources. Their population is also a big burden and China is facing demographic crisis of huge proportions. I won't even mention what they have done to their ecology.
  • #11,224
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:39am Jul 9, 2012 9:39am
Quoting Holy Cow
Eventually China will be in as much troubles as Japan is if no more.
Those who think China will be next super power do not understand that to be one one requires enough resources to be independent like USSR used to be and USA also was. China is very much dependent upon others resources. Their population is also a big burden and China is facing demographic crisis of huge proportions. I won't even mention what they have done to their ecology.
talking about resources, as far as I know China is present in Africa buying whatever they can.
They will not be in bigger trouble than Japan - I don't think that there is any country with almost three decades lost
swing it!
  • #11,225
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:17am Jul 9, 2012 10:17am
Quoting tomspin
talking about resources, as far as I know China is present in Africa buying whatever they can.
They will not be in bigger trouble than Japan - I don't think that there is any country with almost three decades lost

China can get even into bigger trouble. They have had over the whole of their history. Whatever they buy in Africa doe snot mean will be theirs long term. They do not have own resources sufficient for their population levels.
They also have more problems. Ecology completely ruined. Their area of farm land has been steadily diminishing with 1.5 billion mouths it is a serious problem. Water...I would not mention bad debts.
Whatever statistics available to the West might be rigged. There is no reliable data on what's actually going on there.
  • #11,226
  • Jul 9, 2012 2:53pm Jul 9, 2012 2:53pm
what happend today? no move in any currency? some fundamental problem?
  • #11,227
  • Edited 3:39pm Jul 9, 2012 3:21pm | Edited 3:39pm
Originally Posted by Skynet
there is always some pairs, either majors or exotics trending somewhere
...check their status on tradingeconomics.com ...The beauty of 3sma trend trading all pairs...is that you can apply it to all pairs. all of them. even xau/xag. ...using higher time frames also help compensate for the wider spreads of these exotics.

Once again Sky thanks for the heads-up, that tradingeconomic.com is a beautiful resource if used correctly, I will have to study that site to get the best out of it. Its not that I dont trade exotics at all it is that some times I will get lazy whilst scanning pairs to trade and if some are left out it is normally the exotics. I dont really day trade (although if I am by the screen I will try and bag some shorter TF pips) but I prefer the daily and 4H times as one swing can easily gain 100+ pips and therefore the larger spreads then become mostly irrelevant. Although I am happy with my broker some of those exotic pairs you mention my broker does not list! Hmm food for thought.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,228
  • Jul 9, 2012 3:32pm Jul 9, 2012 3:32pm
Quoting 4rexx
Originally Posted by Skynet
there is always some pairs, either majors or exotics trending somewhere
...check their status on tradingeconomics.com ...The beauty of 3sma trend trading all pairs...is that you can apply it to all pairs. all of them. even xau/xag. ...using higher time frames also help compensate for the wider spreads of these exotics.

[i]Once again Sky thanks for the heads-up, that...
Great site thanks
  • #11,229
  • Jul 9, 2012 10:54pm Jul 9, 2012 10:54pm
Originally Posted by Vladutz112

what happend today? no move in any currency? some fundamental problem?


I'm not sure if it is the case right now but July - August historically the markets do slow down. This is the time when many of the hedge fund managers, commodity traders and investment bankers go on holiday. However, the good news is that on their return stronger trends should start to appear again as big money re-enters the market as these big traders will have to position themselves for the rest of the year.

Seasonality plays a key role when looking how certain currencies traditionally act during certain months of the year. If you take the currency data form 5, 10, 20 and 30 years to get an average you will see that patterns appear in the market. This info can give you an idea when to (along with reading price action) short certain currencies or when to go long. Over a 30 year period the US dollar index (DX) normally weakens in December, but rallies in Jan and Feb. The GBP seasonally rallies in Mar and peaks around Aug. Where as the commodity dollars (Aud, Cad) start from a low base at the beginning of a year but strenghtens as the year progresses with a strong rally in Dec (gold-xmas presents, oil - heating, travel, etc). To find the Seasonal Patterns of the majors go here.

Persistence overcomes resistance!
  • #11,230
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:52pm Jul 9, 2012 11:52pm
I will try to reply to as many posts as possible.

4rexx has been dropping some hot stuff lately. nicely done.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,231
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:55pm Jul 9, 2012 11:55pm
Quoting Skynet
Market report:

Trending pairs on higher time frames.

8th of july, 2012.
I POSTED these yesterday(above)...today...i took some trades in them...still going....


update:

XAG/CAD.

the trade is still in progress.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,232
  • Jul 9, 2012 11:58pm Jul 9, 2012 11:58pm
Quoting Skynet
Market report:

Trending pairs on higher time frames.

8th of july, 2012.
like i said, i posted those pairs yesterday...here is the current ongoing trade.

EUR/SGD.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,233
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:14am Jul 10, 2012 12:14am
This pair, before London Market seems to swing between 0.9740 and 0.9780 till one of the level will be broken
As the trend is mostly Up-Trend ( according to H4 pattern)
Strong level for Buy
Buy: 0.9740 (Strong Level) (above this level is so risky)
S/L:0.9730
T/P1:0.9758
T/P2:0.9777
T/P3:0.9843
Sell Stop:0.9720
S/L:0.9735
T/P1:0.9705
T/P2:0.9685
T/P3:0.9663
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,234
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:36am Jul 10, 2012 12:36am
You put it very nicely. i have heard of george soros reflexivity. i first came across this idea, beleive it or not, in jim cramer's book "mad money" (that clown!)and investors business daily newspaper. (on the articles about looking for leaders and laggards.)

ON CHINA. yes, i am with you...however, unless i am trading a solid daily/weekly trendline break and retest/bounce...i will wait for clear technical deterioration in the AUD, NZD, SGD, HKD. If you will...throw in some commodities like copper, aluminium, coal....to top it off...i will keep my eye on some of the stock indexes of the far east.


Quoting shomari
Your technique of finding misalignments is exactly what George Soros said he did to make his billions. He watches the irrationality of a market, and waits for people to finally realize their irrationality and he's waiting to profit when they figure it out. That's how he took out the bank of England. It's like you have to trade with the herd, but if you know the herd is wrong, you also are waiting for them to figure it out, so to speak and then you're already sitting there, ready to pounce. If I'm understanding correctly.
That's why I posted...
4rexx...you've been dropping it like its hot. I got the idea from stocks...yes, i read investors business daily articles( a long time ago) about using that reasoning--that you've just outlined below--using it to spot NEXT MARKET leaders and laggards. That is, when in a bull market...while trading on the long side, keep an eye on the weakest performing sector...in the weakest performing sector....keep an eye on the weakest performing industry...in the weakest performing industry, keep an eye on the weakest performing stocks...when the bull market is deteriorating and over...pile in and rape those weak stocks mercilessly. In a bear market, simply reverse the process.

I am familiar with micardo thread. went through it. read through his fundamental posts too.

yes, one can apply that to currency too. quenoy site is also a good source.

Quoting 4rexx
Originally Posted by Skynet

#1. trade with the trend.

#2. Market misalignment. This is what i mean by market misalignment:


[i](a)I look for disjointment between fundamental and market action. e,g. when QE was released the USD was depreciating....and every other currencies was beating the crap out of the USD...during this time i look for currencies that least appreciate against the USD(e.g turkish lira)...when the QE is over....i will wait for the currency to break below appopriate technical levels...then i went...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,235
  • Jul 10, 2012 12:59am Jul 10, 2012 12:59am
I am afraid it is a bit hard to get hold of info about exotics...unlike majors.

the best site i have found so far on all the countries of the world are:

#1. tradingeconomics.com . It contains all the fundamental info about every country. Including the performance of the stock market. which i think is important.

#2. bloomberg news. do a search for whatever country tickles your fancy.
e.g. http://topics.bloomberg.com/singapore-dollar/

or this for denmark krone. AT BLOOMBERG news.(see the search info on the right?)

or this for polish zloty. at bloomberg news. (see the search parameter on the right?)

or this for....you can just keep going....

BASICALLY, i combine tradingeconomics and bloomberg news. TE for tabulation and sorting of the data and BB news for the latest development.

OH YES, the exotics all trend like everything else...i have attached below the chart of the XAU/HKD...that is a monthly chart...you can see the linear, uptrend since 2008 all the way till september of 2011. That is 3 solid years of non stop trending. In fact, you can even apply the hector 3sma to commodities and stocks. especially, commodities. and it makes sense: the principles of the 3sma are universal trading principles.

Quoting shomari
I like those. Thanks SKy, for sharing.

hey SKY, I trade the majors, but I noticed you posted soe charts andeven spoke of trading the exotics.
I, personally, have always been afraid of exotics, but from your charts, they just trend like anything else.
Question: 1) Where do you find data releases for the exotics (if any)? AND
2) Do you have any special advice when it comes to trading exotics ?

Also, any relavent input/knowledge/funndamental indicators/personnnal suggestion/anything, WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED.

Thanks...
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,236
  • Jul 10, 2012 1:28am Jul 10, 2012 1:28am
holy cow and shomari,

on china.,..yes, china has been buying africa like crazy. heck they gifted a massive african union building to the whole of africa. FOR FREE. yes, they entire 200million dollars worth is free.

they know that resources are limited...and they want their hands in as many pies as possible...where do we have the most unexploited resources on this planet with zero geological disasters? AFRICA. The chinese have a long time horizon why USA is going around lecturing everybody about human rights...they are busy accomodating dictatorship and buying stuff up. Preparing for the future. Smart motherfuckers. Of course, there is political danger involved....but hey, no risk, no gain.

still....china lies too much about their numbers....so much is about saving face among the officials....

when the news of chinese lies starts to leak to the world...i will wait for the weakness certain commodities, e,g copper and coal....aud, nzd, sgd, hkd....stock market and currency index...then i will short.

right now? i have attached the nzd and aud indexes below...they are not showing weakness yet in my humble opinion.


Quoting Holy Cow
Eventually China will be in as much troubles as Japan is if no more.
Those who think China will be next super power do not understand that to be one one requires enough resources to be independent like USSR used to be and USA also was. China is very much dependent upon others resources. Their population is also a big burden and China is facing demographic crisis of huge proportions. I won't even mention what they have done to their ecology.


Quoting shomari
As far as I'm concerned, I think people already know the Chinese numbers will be bad, so I'm expecting FEAR, and that means LONG, USD, JPY, and CHF this week (of course against EUR, and GBP), But more importantly , against Comm dolls (AUD. NZD, and CAD).

"But, Shomari, Comm Dolls have had grat numbers lately, what gives with the shitty analysis ?!!!!" Well, TRUE, BUT China is "the world's manufacturer, and that means when they slow down, commodities are less in demand (read back a few weeks, when I posted the article about low energy...

i came across seasonality in one of kathy lien articles...maybe i am looking at this too much from the view point of a commodity trader...but i will expect seasonality to be more tangible for NZD(because of its agricultural intensive economy) than for EUR which is not commodity based, let alone agricultural based.

It seems that kathy lien did this pattern analysis which shows seasonality for every majors....hmmm.....


Quoting 4rexx
Originally Posted by Vladutz112

what happend today? no move in any currency? some fundamental problem?


I'm not sure if it is the case right now but July - August historically the markets do slow down. This is the time when many of the hedge fund managers, commodity traders and investment bankers go on holiday. However, the good news is that on their return stronger trends should start to appear again as big money re-enters the market as these big traders will have to position themselves for the rest of the year.

Seasonality plays a...

ingmarforex, thanks for the words of praise, most humbled by it. appreciate it.

Quoting ingmarforex
You got skills sky just see some of your post thinking outside box nice not many can do that.

I think you starting to break a barrier and you will soon sse it back on your performance no doubt wish ya best mate..
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,237
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:09am Jul 10, 2012 3:09am
Quoting Skynet
I POSTED these yesterday(above)...today...i took some trades in them...still going....

update:

XAG/CAD.

the trade is still in progress.
UPDATE ON XAG/CAD. here is how the trade is progressing nicely...i always keep my entry point as close to the confluence spot as possible....anyways, due to that H4 resistance...i B/E the trade.
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,238
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:12am Jul 10, 2012 3:12am
Quoting Skynet
like i said, i posted those pairs yesterday...here is the current ongoing trade.

EUR/SGD.
UPDATE ON eur/sgd....THIS trade is also progressing very nicely...already b/e the trade because of that silly "gap".
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,239
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:17am Jul 10, 2012 3:17am
Quoting kamifx
As i have said about up levels , the 0.9765 was touched before any down movement but the next important resistance is 0.9778 that was very strong months ago , i think we have to wait for this level be broken next week by H4 Candle and waiting for down direction around that level to 0.9680
Last Week i mentioned about this level:
Remember this level 0.9778 is very strong and if it breaks in High Time Frames we can see the pair above 0.98100
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,240
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:41am Jul 10, 2012 3:41am
so, kamifx, i missed this earlier, i just saw it....

let me try and understand your question: you want me to post my thoughts on breakouts and price patterns?

Quoting kamifx
Skynet
So valuable info, but as i have seen before, having so many analysis about Break Out and Price Pattern as well
Kindly please, give some info in this regards, too
Kami
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
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