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Extreme TMA System

  • #11,821
  • Edited 3:39am Jul 9, 2012 3:23am | Edited 3:39am
Excellent read, should have post it during this lazy weekend but was very busy at the beach with the wife relaxing and sipping Cold Piña colada and mojito during this hot summer days .

I like to mention that if you are short gold, silver and AU hold on to your shorts there is a continuation of the late last week bearish momentum, profit taking is expected @ the lower H4 band or little beyond this band, take your TMA slope as an exit indicator and let your profit run.

This answers the last question of where i take my profit. Aggressive traders should let there profit run and trail there stops (Personal preference nothing to do with AL Rules) conservative traders should set there limit orders at the bottom of the Band.

Cheers
B.R.
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,822
  • Jul 9, 2012 3:39am Jul 9, 2012 3:39am
Any open positions you guys? Afraid to enter long on AU and short UCad(as 1hr channel going angled up to top of 4hr channel). Am currently short Uchf.
  • #11,823
  • Edited 3:55am Jul 9, 2012 3:42am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting grechmar
Any open positions you guys? Afraid to enter long on AU and short UCad(as 1hr channel going angled up to top of 4hr channel). Am currently short Uchf.
Your question already answered.
EJ, UC, GU, and even EU represent interesting trading opportunities but as always Patience and discipline in implementing the rules is required.

And of course let the sunshine in.

Best Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,824
  • Edited 4:19am Jul 9, 2012 4:03am | Edited 4:19am
I just wanna say Hi to one of the first contributors of this thread (realjumper) who's on board right now(Or was).

Best Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,825
  • Jul 9, 2012 5:04am Jul 9, 2012 5:04am

< The Ramy Report >



Fundamentals :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/ne...s-trading.html
http://www.ft.com/intl/markets/currencies
http://www.dailyfx.com/

Technicals :

EURUSD
The EURUSD lost significant ground last week and ended the week just below the key support at 1.2287. This market is clearly weak right now and we could expect more losses this week, to take advantage of this weakness we would watch for a price action sell signal forming near resistance on a retrace higher. The resistance zone around 1.2440 would be a good level to look for sell signals .

GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has been bouncing around between about 1.5720 and 1.5480 for about the last month now, and on Friday we saw this market close basically right on the support at the bottom of the range near 1.5480. If this market is to stay range-bound this week, we will need to see the market sustain itself above this support on a closing basis. If price closes below 1.5480 this week we would expect lower prices and could then watch for a price action sell signal forming on a retrace back up to that old support / new resistance level near 1.5480.

AUDUSD
The AUD/USD found resistance last week off 1.0320 and moved lower into the week’s end, closing the week just below support at 1.0225 and the 8 day EMA dynamic support level. If this weakness continues into this week we would watch the near-term support near the 21 day EMA and 1.0125 for potential buy signals to rejoin the overall uptrend. Below 1.0125, we see key support at 1.0000 / parity, which would obviously be a good buy level to watch should price rotate into it this week.


XAUUSD
The spot Gold market is clearly still range-bound between about $1630.00 and $1550.00. Last week, a minor fakey setup formed just below the trading range resistance at $1630.00 and then on Friday the setup got triggered as price broke down through the mother bar low. We could see a fall into support near $1550.00 this week, if that happens it will be crucial that this support holds in order for this market to have a chance at moving higher again, otherwise price may move lower to re-test the key ‘line in the sand’ support near $1533.00 – $1526.00 area.

Summary :

EUR :
“German factories are still doing quite well, but we’ll
see some skid marks as a result of the euro region’s
debt crisis in the coming months”
- Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank

USD:
“The job market is soft, as is the overall economy”
- David Resler, chief economic adviser at Nomura Securities
International Inc.

GBP:
“Official data on producer prices brought further good
news for the inflation outlook”
- Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit

CHF:
“It seems that the markets are expecting another round
of quantitative easing in order to continue their upward
momentum”
- Theodore Krintas, managing director of Attica Wealth
Management

Daily Calendar : Upcoming important economic announcements, see the FF Calendar.

Daily Trading Wisdom :

"There is no sense of feeling humiliation or fear that my family will look down upon me when I take a loss in a stock. My perception is that I take a stop because I'm limiting my loss and I'm protecting my capital base. - Chris Schumacher - Master Interview "

Daily Trading Cartoons : - Euro Bottoming.

Thanks Guys and Good Luck in your trading.
(Disclaimer : Don't Trust me or follow my lead i know nothing about the Financial Markets.)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,826
  • Jul 9, 2012 6:33am Jul 9, 2012 6:33am
Quoting bassramy
Taking profit is a matter of personal risk tolerance, usually if i'm not in front of my charts i set my PT @ the other side of the Band (Like the last example of the EURUSD, even thought and because of the importance of the news released last week PA went past the lower H4 band), however if i'm in front of my screen i let my profits run and trail my stops.

Regards.
B.R.
Hi Bassramy
Thank you
Regards
Bill
Have a nice day
  • #11,827
  • Jul 9, 2012 8:24am Jul 9, 2012 8:24am
Quoting bassramy
[ /QUOTES = EU was settled in the middle of 1hr channel... Why were you short on eu?
-Yes, why were you short?
-That is true, however the move was due to news not technicals. It could easily have worked the other way round and one could justify such an opposite move(just depends on hindsight). Furthermore, According to the TMA rules that was an invalid entry, unless entering on basis of the news alone which has nothing to do with TMA.]



I'm sorry SIR but don't you think that you're a little bit of hurry to judge that...
Bassramy, God bless you. All your explanation and analysis just did all that i have been looking for on this TMA strategy. It just open up my eyes and brain. Thanks so very much. I am now full of confidence to trade with this strategy. Thanks once again.
************************* Knowledge is an endless research
  • #11,828
  • Jul 9, 2012 9:07am Jul 9, 2012 9:07am
Quoting bassramy
Your question already answered.
EJ, UC, GU, and even EU represent interesting trading opportunities but as always Patience and discipline in implementing the rules is required.

And of course let the sunshine in.

Best Regards.
B.R.
BR would it be a problem if you post when you enter a trade? I think it would help a lot of people to understand your thoughts on TMA.

Thanks,
AG
  • #11,829
  • Edited 11:49am Jul 9, 2012 11:01am | Edited 11:49am
Nice GU long brewing in the Horizon, London closed so I'm waiting for PA to at least retest the coral after the cross or at most retrace to the lower H1 Band to enter.
Let's wait til tomorrow to consider entering this trade don't like to enter after the inter-lap for lack of liquidity and volume.

Just for info.

Best Regards.
B.R.
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Click to Enlarge Name: gu h1 chart.jpg Size: 137 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,830
  • Jul 9, 2012 4:38pm Jul 9, 2012 4:38pm
Quoting Mr C
Attachment .

Attachment
If you change the input's time frame to 240 & length to 20 you can show the 4h trend on the lesser time frame charts. I have been backtesting on the 15m charts & really looks like it could help us from trading against the the 4h trend. For example, it shows todays trend reversal of the EU, GU, EJ, & GJ very well.
  • #11,831
  • Edited 1:11am Jul 10, 2012 1:10am | Edited 1:11am
I have been in recovery for the past 2 weeks (incl this one) and wanted to know if any of you had been in that situation (1 setup was actually invalid, the other 2 just tough luck...
It's on level 3 now and opportunity cost (not entering new trades) it's high but closing it all and taking the loss it's too high as well,...past current experience are welcome, i am learning recovery (past 2/3 months) used to use the typical stops

BTW in case you wonder, I am taking a a hit on EURJPY and GBP JPY (both were longs on H1 TMA)
  • #11,832
  • Jul 10, 2012 2:43am Jul 10, 2012 2:43am
Quoting thewriter30
I have been in recovery for the past 2 weeks (incl this one) and wanted to know if any of you had been in that situation (1 setup was actually invalid, the other 2 just tough luck...
It's on level 3 now and opportunity cost (not entering new trades) it's high but closing it all and taking the loss it's too high as well,...past current experience are welcome, i am learning recovery (past 2/3 months) used to use the typical stops

BTW in case you wonder, I am taking a a hit on EURJPY and GBP JPY (both were longs on H1 TMA)
What currency pair are you recovering? When did you open first position?
  • #11,833
  • Jul 10, 2012 3:45am Jul 10, 2012 3:45am
Quoting bassramy
Nice GU long brewing in the Horizon, London closed so I'm waiting for PA to at least retest the coral after the cross or at most retrace to the lower H1 Band to enter.
Let's wait til tomorrow to consider entering this trade don't like to enter after the inter-lap for lack of liquidity and volume.

Just for info.

Best Regards.
B.R.
Bassramy, you analyze and examples are excellent. Congratulations, this thread will die without you.
I noticed that you use ATRMultiplier at 2.5, my TMA band ATRMultiplier is set at 2.0 on all currencies (Al wrote that this is best for H1 and H4). I know what is the diference (narrower or wider TMA path) but I want to know to which currencies can be set to 2.5, which for 2.0? I guess that 2.5 is for pairs with high ATR
Thanks for answer.

Greetings,
R.Ż.
  • #11,834
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:07am Jul 10, 2012 4:07am
Follow up on yesterday's GU trade that i didn't take because of the European Session close, and for your info i just went long after the retest of the coral and yes its in the middle of the H1 TMA bands, usually PA will retrace back to the lower band @ most or @ least to the coral if there is enough Bullish momentum and then continue his upward move.
This is mainly because of the Manufacturing Production m/m and the Trade Balance of the GU which came better than expected.

Rules met :
1- Slope ranging and crossing into positive territory.
2- PA crossed coral up retraced back down found support on it and continued his move up.
3- Fast and slow trix just turned long.
4- RSI crossed the down trendline up retraced back to it, found support on it and then continued his move up.
5- The trigger was the blue candle that formed @ the London session open.

As u can see i'm dissecting the trade step by step for the benefits of all the members, me included.

Let's see how this trade will evolve.

Best Regards.
B.R.

Update : EU is crossing the coral up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu h1.gif Size: 46 KB
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,835
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:07am Jul 10, 2012 4:07am
Quoting bassramy
Nice GU long brewing in the Horizon, London closed so I'm waiting for PA to at least retest the coral after the cross or at most retrace to the lower H1 Band to enter.
Let's wait til tomorrow to consider entering this trade don't like to enter after the inter-lap for lack of liquidity and volume.

Just for info.

Best Regards.
B.R.
Thanks for the heads up! I don't tade GBPUSD, but this warning did reasure my assumption on indexes and EUR bullish pattern to be correct.

My pip count this week is over weekly wishes already.

The only "problem" is, the move this morning was so fast, I wasn't able to raise TP. I don't really mind thoug. I just hope we'll all have this "problem" more often.

BR
  • #11,836
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:13am Jul 10, 2012 4:13am
Quoting bassramy
Follow up on yesterday's GU trade that i didn't take because of the European Session close, and for your info i just went long after the retest of the coral and yes its in the middle of the H1 TMA bands, usually PA will retrace back to the lower band @ most or @ least to the coral if there is enough Bullish momentum and then continue his upward move.

Rules met :
1- Slope ranging and crossing into positive territory.
2- PA crossed coral up retraced back down found support on it and continued his move up.
3- Fast and slow trix just turned long.
4-...
Target Top 4hr band? personally still waiting for gj to break coral and then will long both gj and gu.
  • #11,837
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:40am Jul 10, 2012 4:40am
Quoting Nes
Bassramy, you analyze and examples are excellent. Congratulations, this thread will die without you.
I noticed that you use ATRMultiplier at 2.5, my TMA band ATRMultiplier is set at 2.0 on all currencies (Al wrote that this is best for H1 and H4). I know what is the diference (narrower or wider TMA path) but I want to know to which currencies can be set to 2.5, which for 2.0? I guess that 2.5 is for pairs with high ATR
Thanks for answer.

Greetings,
R.Ż.
This is mainly a personal risk tolerance choice high ATR pairs > 70 should have at least 2.5 multiplier because they have more volatility and bigger range, low ATR and low volatility pairs < 70 should be set to 2.0 of course because of low volatility and narrower range.
As for timeframes i think that H1 and H4 should be set to 2.0 to catch every possible pip even thought sometimes PA will extend the Bands, this is the conservative approach and to make sure that it will work on every currencie pair .(A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush).

Best Regards.
B.R.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,838
  • Jul 10, 2012 4:48am Jul 10, 2012 4:48am
Quoting tp0440
Thanks for the heads up! I don't tade GBPUSD, but this warning did reasure my assumption on indexes and EUR bullish pattern to be correct.

My pip count this week is over weekly wishes already.

The only "problem" is, the move this morning was so fast, I wasn't able to raise TP. I don't really mind thoug. I just hope we'll all have this "problem" more often.

BR
Congrats TP, personnaly i don't like to be greedy usually i have daily and weekly stop loss but i like to let my profit run of course with limiting my risk as much as possible.
Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,839
  • Jul 10, 2012 5:26am Jul 10, 2012 5:26am

< The Ramy Report >



Fundamentals :

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/currencies/
http://online.wsj.com/public/page/ne...s-trading.html
http://www.ft.com/intl/markets/currencies
http://www.dailyfx.com/

Technicals :

-Chinese Trade Balance Better than Expected; Australian Dollar Sold.
-USD technical report.
-GBPJPY Technical Report
-Euro Poised for Fresh Lows, Trend Trading Attractive

Summary :

-Euro Weakens Versus Yen as Chinese, French Data Weigh on Economic Outlook.
-Draghi Signals ECB Can Do More.
-Central Bankers Talk Up QE3 In Wake Of June Jobs Data.
-Haven currencies shine as outlook darkens.
-Eurozone draws up Spanish aid blueprint.
-Why the SNB will keep its grip on the franc, abandoning its target will put its foreign asset holdings at risk.
-Thomson Reuters pays $625m for FXall.
-"The euro is going to stay quite weak, particularly against the U.S. dollar and the yen. The euro zone is still in recession and it’s probably getting even deeper."
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia (based on Bloomberg)

Daily Calendar : Upcoming important economic announcements, see the FF Calendar.

Daily Trading Wisdom :

Take home runs when you can, but don’t beat yourself up about missing a few.
One trade should never make or break your account.

Daily Trading Cartoons : - Greed.

Thanks Guys and Good Luck in your trading.
(Disclaimer : Don't Trust me or follow my lead i know nothing about the Financial Markets.)
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Master Your Setup, Master Your self. (NQoos)
  • #11,840
  • Jul 10, 2012 7:32am Jul 10, 2012 7:32am
For those of you who ask, I'm still short AU, GLD and SLV.
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