Euro/Dollar

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Tom

Hello Bro

Good luck with thread,

Will be nice to have a thread without the bitchyness, does no good for anyone
For me before I even look at lower timeframes I like to know where her sitting on the monthly then work my way down through timeframes.

Longer term trades are always based on montly and weekly charts refine daily and 4hr for entry levels.

I do this for all ladies, eu au kiwi cable geppy and swissy as contrarian.

Then I start looking for opportunties.

This is eu Monthly is very rarely change, but a good starting place.

Note for the last 18years, she has stayed above her alltime mid aka average price aka 50% etc etc, the average price of any pair is always an interesting level to be at, and monthly does not come around that often.

Note this is the 3rd attack of this level 2131 since 2005 if she can break retest and hold, next level of interest me would be the 200sma then 1 1875 last low then 1 1643 this would be a new low, and a lh ll lh ll on a monthly

There is old saying buy 2nd sell 3rd try, but is monthly so need patience,

So far this month is showing a continuation of the May "sell off" and if this month closes here or lower would be a bearish engulfing monthly a huge sign

I accept monthly levels are subjective, and not specific target levels more an identifiable zone of interest.


Next chart is daily is a updated chart from last weekends chart.
Is self expainatory

So the battle lines are clear, bulls need defend and bears need to take out. Therefore bulls and bears can make money these type level, key is mm rr entry exit risk reduction etc etc

Kiwi

I personally waiting for a bounce and better place to start a new short sell position after friday hooray. I do have some possible levels:
1,2385
1,2400/10
1,2440
1,2460 as 50 fib
1,2500 round psych level
Friday's close bullish hammer could be a sign of a coming bounce.

http://s16.postimage.org/g9wyuz61h/euro.gif
picture hosting

Oil has droped from 88,90$ to 84,12 on a friday close. I expect a bounce from 83,11 or further weakness which is confirmed on Daily chart.
Ideally to push euro down more I'd like to see it below 80$

H4
http://s15.postimage.org/clfjk8sbv/oil.gif
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Daily
http://s9.postimage.org/vf7qcq9db/oil_d1.gif
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Gold still in consolidation between 1634,60 and 1523,20 which I would consider a nice level to buy in the mid term
So I am standing aside, awaiting lower price to position myself untill rest of the year.

Daily
http://s15.postimage.org/ltlk663jf/gold.gif
free image hosting

Nice to see we finally have a nice place to hang.

Fundamentally, I would see an increase in oil prices in the later part of the year particularly Q4 to next year.

The Iranian sanctions means that one of the largest oil exporters will have to cut it's oil supply to many countries.

This will probably cause a supply shock to oil and cause a spike up in prices once economies start picking up and demand for oil returns for production.

As of now, the effects of a supply shock to oil can be offset by the drop in demand for oil due to slowing economies but when economies start to pick up, the drop in oil supplies will definitely be felt.

Of course, once Iranian sanctions get lifted or lightened, expect to see a sudden drop in prices due to the huge oil reserves Iran will probably accumulate due to the inability to export oil.

Oil is a hard one at least for me, main problem is whole Iranian crisis and how it will end. I remember spike on price just from the rumours about Straight of Hormuz and potential blockade as an answer for sanctions you just mentioned. Everybody is so bearish about the euro which is understandable (I am too) but I think most people forgeting about Iran and Israel and the fact that shit can hit the fan suddenly. I wonder what kind of outcome we would see if there would be a naval attack on Iran or Israel air raids. What would happen to euro, how much dollar would fell off and for how long, even with current problems in EZ.

So I sold swissy as I do have a position in euro, I think RR is pretty good.
It may not reach my target as it could bounce from 0,9740 up again.

http://s14.postimage.org/fj8io4pmp/swissy.gif
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Swissy hit my SL,
I took another long term trade, short sell position on Aussie
Daily showed some weakness on friday, there is a confirmation on weekly which triggered alarm bells in my head so I will follow another leg down as I see it as an end to a corrective move from beginning of June.
I have a 20 pips SL on this one - again RR is sufficient for me to make my decision on this trade.
There is only one TF (H4) which is out of sync on this one, I guess you can't have them all.

http://i50.tinypic.com/68zxtu.gif

GL with the thread

Thanks, I hope it'll not become my bloody journal

Short term wise, i have a small long from 1.2258 target 1.2324. Before frankfurt opening, i will either close it or be it. First this have to cross 1.2300.

i saw the pre-market on oanda which falls to 1.2225-1.2235 area, looks crazy for me, but that was not open for the others yet. Long position there was favorable for a pullback free trade.

I can see three potential levels for reverse, I don't wanna make predictions atm, so I will be waiting for a clear signal. Patience gents!

http://s11.postimage.org/4rdvxedeb/euro.gif
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I started building my position on Aussie, I will wait until 1,01260 is reached and secure first two positions with SL below them, then I will watch PA around that level on higher TF and add more if freefall continue.
Huge potential on this one, yest it is negative carry and swap + wendesday rollover will take a fair bit of my profits but in the long term potential return make it excusable cost.

http://s11.postimage.org/pnwsg7o7n/aussie.gif
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For AUD, China's CPI has indicated that there is more room for easing for the Chinese government.

They are well below their inflation forecast which despite their rate cuts show that their economy is still contracting and their efforts to bolster their economy is not working.

I will expect to see some more stimulus in the form of rate cuts in the coming months as well as some form of stimulus by Japan as well which should provide some beef for the AUD.

I doubt I will be betting the AUD against the USD due to the prevailing risk off sentiment but probably will take a stance on the EUR/AUD though I may buy AUD/USD if it hits parity or levels around parity.


For the EUR/USD, everything is still in the hands of the politicians and there is really no reason to buy EUR until they sort out that mess. I'll be looking for short set ups that I'll be cross referencing from those tech analysis books LOL.

Well, maybe I overlooked potential and maybe current down move is just a retracement to go up, both scenarios can happen especially around parity but from the tech point of view I would look at 0,9688 as my minimum level with my target @ 0,9380 2011 low.
Stops in place it could play both ways as usual.

http://s11.postimage.org/qig4amlhv/aussie.gif
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Euro failed to go higher seems like 1,2275 hold as nice support, the longer price stays around that level in consolidation the more I am convinced that it may go further down. It should go up a bit but I cannot see any signal on higher TF's atm

Seems like a good place to be around now. No trading for me on E/U until the 40 level is taken out.

Good luck with that short on aussie, it's a nice level. Will come back when the trading will comence.

Wise decision Daemon, better safe than sorry like they say

i am looking at 1.2330-40 for a sell with tight stop in case bull is unleashed. i wait for resistance to form, and tested 2 times at least

Holy fuck, another algo spike for EUR/USD