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AUD/USD

  • #48,841
  • Edited 7:01pm Jul 8, 2012 7:31am | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting stulic
Well that sound heaps better and I hope you're right because I'm still short on GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD, if one of my pending orders doesn't get hit is nowhere near the end of the world, they are always heavily diversified across many instruments.
I like the certainty with which you predict the market but there's only one certain thing in Forex, it's gonna come back to haunt you ;-)
Our debate over "childish nonsense" is over, if you will.

Now I understand that your are conservative in the format of this forum; therefore, I'd discuss the Aussie's next move in your style.

By last Thursday, my bias was still bearish. However, at the time of Thursday close, I saw the bigger picture of the Aussie. BTW, I prefer not to use "predict the market" because prediction involves super nature power, which I don't have. As a human being, I would use "project the market" instead.

The reasons I am sure about the Aussie's next move are based on H1 and daily charts. I know you are a chart man.

In the H1 chart, the Aussie has completed her short-term pattern and has touched the lower envelope. Friday's close was close to 50% FIB and the daily low was supported by 1.0180 as well. From here, she will rise. This is the reason, I believe she will not hit your long entry pending order in the coming weeks. However, this could be the first part of current consolidation before she is fully charged. This is highly possible. We'll see.

In the daily chart, the Aussie has not completed her intermediate-term pattern and has not touched the upper envelope or TL as well. This is the reason why I am bullish now.

In terms of the Aussie's target, based on daily chart, I would project that it could reach 1.07033 [or beyond] or at least 1.05534. -IMHO-

Quoting egkid
grew up Traders
Looking for view for new week to talk about together if anyone like.
waiting my Sunday candle close to tell what next for me
CU
Thanks for your wise advice. I grow up instantly. Let us talk together now. Please look at my charts below and my analysis above. This is the reason why I would not wait for Sunday candle close to tell what next for me. -IMHO-
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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daddybearforex. com
  • #48,842
  • Jul 8, 2012 9:42am Jul 8, 2012 9:42am
Quoting DaddyBear
Are you watching Aussie's vertical takeoff?
Haha I actually went to bed because it was past midnight by then, but when I came back, yes I saw it
  • #48,843
  • Jul 8, 2012 12:14pm Jul 8, 2012 12:14pm
Mr. DaddyBear,

I have hard time to believe AUDUSD will go any higher right now.
Actually I think it will go below year's lows.

Besides reading your posts it looks like you are using EW, but if I am not missing anything I never have seen any Elliott Waves count in your posts.

To me it looks like wave 3 down is about to start and if it breaks 1.015 it will go to 1.00 and if breaks 1.00 it will go below year's low.

Would you mind be more specific about why you believe it will go up?
May be posting your EW count?

I really would like to understand more whay you think it will go any higher instead falling below yera's lows.

Thanks

Marc

Quoting DaddyBear
Our debate over "childish nonsense" is over, if you will.

Now I understand that your are conservative in the format of this forum; therefore, I'd discuss the Aussie's next move in your style.

By last Thursday, my bias was still bearish. However, at the time of Thursday close, I saw the bigger picture of the Aussie. BTW, I prefer not to use "predict the market" because prediction involves super nature power, which I don't have. As a human being, I would use "project the market" instead.

The reasons I am sure about the Aussie's next move...
  • #48,844
  • Edited 7:04pm Jul 8, 2012 12:17pm | Edited 7:04pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Fair enough. Do you really think my cartoons contribute nothing to exchange of trading ideals regarding the Aussie? Do you have trouble to read my messages hidden in the cartoons.

There are different ways to express one's messages. Writing is not the only way. A forum does not have to be so stereotype and strict. I just want to provide some fun for everybody including myself to relax during the trading hours.
Note: This message is regarding my cartoons and trading ideals. If you are not interested in this topic please skip my message.

While some people like my cartoons, I know some people don't. So, I'd like to look into this issue and make some improvement.

First, I believe trading is an art not a science. When an art is expressed in a form of another art, it would be easier for people to understand and appreciate. Next, this forum has been viewed worldwide. For those non-English speaking people, graphic art will eliminate the language barrier. Third, there are quite a few newbies who are still learning chart reading. Those super traders' lengthy writings and profound charts will only confuse them all together. Parents never give their toddlers an encyclopedia to read. Instead, they bring books with cartoons to their kids to help the young lives understand this world in an easiest way.

These are the very reasons I drew cartoons to help newbies get oriented in the Forex market. In the meantime, I would be able to share my fun with everybody in this forum.

Personally, I prefer not to show off my own success by posting something like: I entered short/long at xxxxxx, SL xxxxxx. TP xxxxxx. While there is nothing wrong to post this kind of message, to me it is not only boring but also not helping for most people.

I understand why some people don't like my cartoons and even think the cartoons are just for the purpose of entertainment only. I am sorry for those people who have trouble to see more in my cartoons. When an art is filled with writing explanations all over, it becomes illustrations or instructions, not an art any more.

To avoid irritating some bulls who saw my bearish bias in my cartoons, or some Aussie patriots who like to see AUD higher and higher, or some people who dislike "childish nonsense" expressions, I would cut down the frequency of my cartoon postings. In addition, I will also reveal some limited trading ideals in the cartoons to help those people who have hard time to open up their minds for new ideals.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,845
  • Jul 8, 2012 1:26pm Jul 8, 2012 1:26pm
Quoting marcb
Mr. DaddyBear,

I have hard time to believe AUDUSD will go any higher right now.
Actually I think it will go below year's lows.

Besides reading your posts it looks like you are using EW, but if I am not missing anything I never have seen any Elliott Waves count in your posts.

To me it looks like wave 3 down is about to start and if it breaks 1.015 it will go to 1.00 and if breaks 1.00 it will go below year's low.

Would you mind be more specific about why you believe it will go up?
May be posting your EW count?

I really would like to understand...
Hi Marc, Thanks for discussing my posts with me. I had same bearish bias until last Thursday. I saw a new and big picture at Thursday close. I believe Aussie is going up.

I have explained why I think Aussie will rise. Please look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post5822653 for more information. Bear in mind, EW is not the only way to trade.

Basically, I believe in EW principle but I combined EW with other indicators which I designed for myself. So, I am not only using EW count to trade. I look at the patterns and proportions to define next move. It's beyond EW principle.

Since this is not an EW forum and most people do not use EW to trade. Discussing EW may not be appropriate. You may be using EW. But, I would anticipate that your count and mine could be substantially different. This could lead to some unpleasant debates in the end.

Furthermore, I made wrong counts before. EW count is a double edged sword. It may help a lot but it could kill your account as well. To prevent others from getting hurt, even I believe my count is correct at this point, I prefer not to provide any count or details in this forum.

I have studied EW principle for 5 years. The toughest issue is counting EW in real time. After hundreds and thousands trades and numerous mistakes, I have come to a level I could not believe before. A lot of times, it won't be clear until the waves are all done. Whoever can see this beforehand would have an edge in the Forex market.

-DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,846
  • Jul 8, 2012 1:36pm Jul 8, 2012 1:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Hi Marc, Thanks for discussing my posts with me. I had same bearish bias until last Thursday. I saw a new and big picture at Thursday close. I believe Aussie is going up.
What TF you talking about?What zone u think it will go to it ?

For me daily and weekly down trend and "I sell the rally"
Have target for this week will tell it later

26 My lucky number
  • #48,847
  • Jul 8, 2012 2:05pm Jul 8, 2012 2:05pm
Quoting egkid
What TF you talking about?What zone u think it will go to it ?

For me daily and weekly down trend and "I sell the rally"
Have target for this week will tell it later

26 My lucky number
egkid, the left chart is H1 and the right one is daily. The H1 is the blow-up of daily chart. I don't consider they are different. In coming two sessions, it will be range bound. After that it will rise.
Please see my post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post5822653 for more information.

My projection is 1.07033 [or beyond] or at least 1.05534. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,848
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:26pm Jul 8, 2012 3:26pm
Quoting DaddyBear
egkid, the left chart is H1 and the right one is daily. The H1 is the blow-up of daily chart. I don't consider they are different. In coming two sessions, it will be range bound. After that it will rise.
Please see my post: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post5822653 for more information.

My projection is 1.07033 [or beyond] or at least 1.05534. -IMHO-
1-I respect everyone view
2-At end market do whatever it like
3-Not Agree with your view "Trend down on daily and weekly so i sell the rally"
4-Watch out Gold my dear friend next weeks and AUD will follow
5- I already had a long term Plan since January AND Target
  • #48,849
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:43pm Jul 8, 2012 3:43pm
Quoting egkid
1-I respect everyone view
2-At end market do whatever it like
3-Not Agree with your view "Trend down on daily and weekly so i sell the rally"
4-Watch out Gold my dear friend next weeks and AUD will follow
5- I already had a long term Plan since January AND Target
I respect your view too. I visited Cairo and Alexandria in 2009. It was a very wonderful trip. I plan to visit Luxor in the near future. Is it safe to visit Luxor now?
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,850
  • Jul 8, 2012 3:55pm Jul 8, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I respect your view too. I visited Cairo and Alexandria in 2009. It was a very wonderful trip. I plan to visit Luxor in the near future. Is it safe to visit Luxor now?
Weather very Hot now if u like sea come to Marsa matrouh or sharm or hurgada
You are welcome anytime just let me know
  • #48,851
  • Jul 8, 2012 4:29pm Jul 8, 2012 4:29pm
Hi DaddyBear,
thank you for your reply.
I still do not share your view but I do respect your opinion.
Best
Marc

Quoting DaddyBear
Hi Marc, Thanks for discussing my posts with me. I had same bearish bias until last Thursday. I saw a new and big picture at Thursday close. I believe Aussie is going up.

I have explained why I think Aussie will rise. Please look at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...53#post5822653 for more information. Bear in mind, EW is not the only way to trade.

Basically, I believe in EW principle but I combined EW with other indicators which I designed for myself. So, I am not only using EW count to trade. I look at the patterns...
  • #48,852
  • Jul 8, 2012 4:42pm Jul 8, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting egkid
Weather very Hot now if u like sea come to Marsa matrouh or sharm or hurgada
You are welcome anytime just let me know
Off Topic - The reason I want to visit Luxor is because I like to see the ancient temple ruins there. When is the best season to visit Luxor?
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,853
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:26pm Jul 8, 2012 5:26pm
this week is full of releases, in my opinion Chinese trade balance data on tuesday will impact the most on the trend of the upcoming week(s)
  • #48,854
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:36pm Jul 8, 2012 5:36pm
the more debt usa gets into the stronger the dollar get

http://www.usdebtclock.org/


dollar breaking all barriers
  • #48,855
  • Jul 8, 2012 5:52pm Jul 8, 2012 5:52pm
Quoting marcb
Hi DaddyBear,
thank you for your reply.
I still do not share your view but I do respect your opinion.
Best
Marc
Thanks for respecting my opinion even though we are not in agreement. To be honest with you, I got burned many time before by looking at charts and came to the same conclusion you are holding now. Anyway, my best wishes to your trading. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,856
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:02pm Jul 8, 2012 7:02pm
Quoting Aldente
Nice entry, I doubt it will go too much lower today. I'm thinking it'll drift slowly higher till today's close. If this has any juice left in it we should another strong move north soon, I'm thinking monday a possible retest and then a solid bounce.

Which way will it break?
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  • #48,857
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:04pm Jul 8, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting Aldente
Which way will it break?
Nice avatar Rodin's the shit
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #48,858
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:11pm Jul 8, 2012 7:11pm
Quoting OrionsWay
Nice avatar Rodin's the shit
Hey thanks! unfortunately haven't found a way to incorporate it into my trading, but its still interesting stuff.
  • #48,859
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:13pm Jul 8, 2012 7:13pm
Quote
Which way will it break?

Tested 1.018 3 times. It looks like one of those descending triangles.

http://www.forexbees.com/wp-content/...g-triangle.JPG

Compare with this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #48,860
  • Jul 8, 2012 7:13pm Jul 8, 2012 7:13pm
Quoting Aldente
Hey thanks! unfortunately haven't found a way to incorporate it into my trading, but its still interesting stuff.
ya been think bout that for bout 4 years now myself, thought i had something found out later i was just mistaken LOL. If you have a brain fart let me know, maybe between the 2 of us we could shit GL with Aud
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
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