Price Action, Pro, And Ichi Trading with 2ndskiesforex

Hey Pipexplorer,

Yep, R:R and accuracy is correct - sorry I missed that question.

Kind Regards,
Chris

No problem. Thanks! Ichimoku it will be next, for me

Sounds good - email me directly so I can get you the invoice with the discount when you are ready since you are already a course member.

Kind Regards,
Chris

Hola,

The key word is minimum. If have a good eye for PA then the Ichi systems are great and can be a higher % in imo.

EURUSD
Gaining for the last 3 out of 4 weeks, the EURUSD was bolstered by the EU summit as Germany and Frau Merkel caved for now on the ESM support mechanism. This lifted risk on, along with the Euro which formed a weekly pin bar and cleared an important hurdle of resistance at 1.2632 which was the Jan. 2012 lows. Near term resistance is close by about 70pips north of here and last weeks high at 1.2746. If this is cleared, expect short term bullish momentum to continue up to 1.2822 and 1.2913.

However, we expect there to still be plenty of bears in the market looking to sell any rallies, with these being key gravity points for them to enter. In reality, nothing has been solved as Spanish banks are still in trouble sitting on a pile of bad real estate mortgages, yields are still high for the Italian and Spanish bonds, and the prior bailout effect lasted roughly a day before the hangover settled in, so we are skeptical until we see continued strength. So watch for intraday price action triggers here to short if the movement starts to weaken into these levels.



AUDUSD
After finding support at the parity level and the Kumo bottom, the Aussie outperformed in the risk on friday via a large engulfing bar. In the process, it also formed a Kumo Break to the upside, which it has not seen since early March this year. In doing so, it took out the key 1.0230 area resistance while the Chikou Span also cleared the Kijun. After 1.0315, the pair has some decent upside play until 1.0384 which the chikou may run into some stickiness around the Span A.

Beyond this, the next layer of resistance would be at 1.0442. Short term pullbacks into the Kumo will likely find support around the rising Tenkan showing momentum is starting to build for the Aussie. In terms of Ichimoku Time Theory, the pair has not formed a full period yet, which would happen around the end of this week so we may see weakness then and look for possible intraday shorts.



USDCAD
Forming a potential 1-2-3 reversal, the Loonie strengthened massively vs, the greenback on friday and is on the verge of completing the 1-2-3 pattern. The pair needs to take out the prior SL (swing lows) at 1.0156 which was the June low this year. Should it do this, we will watch for a breakout pullback setup, expecting intraday sellers to come in, along with technical models taking profits so some short term selling opportunities near by. From here, we expect selling to continue down towards 1.0050 which was the 3mos range high so watch for intraday buying opportunities if the market shows weakness heading into these levels.



Gold
After showing exhaustion towards the end of last week, Gold formed an intraday pin bar reversal setup before launching on a $55 run. You will notice this formed right before the EU summit. It is very common to see price action triggers form right before a key economic event. Many of our price action traders got into this so hopefully you spotted this setup as well. The shiny metal should be encountering resistance first at $1612 and then later just shy of $1640 where we will look for a possible fade as gold has yet to break these levels since early May this year.

The U/CAD is one pair that has got my attention. I like the way the H1 has made a corrective/impulsive move. As you can see the PA is obvious at this point, but will it stay with this course? Not sure but I am looking for one of the Ichi H1 strats, and if this works out, it will lead to possibly two more Ichi stats. One is a H4 which tries to capture swings, and the other is a D1/H4 combo trade.

So far this is playing out the way I thought. There was also a 6nt trade I could have taken, and should have. It formed right before I went to sleep.

I am on my Droid so I cannot post a pic at the moment. The H1 has formed a an entry candle, but on two different brokers I am showing a pin bar forming. Plus the Time Theory is in play here. So a little retrace maybe? And also there is a daily level that may test price. So on this I am going to see how price reacts. But another thing to that sticks out is a nice pa bar on the H4 and the D1 is above the Kumo. I am hoping for a nice OCX cross which in turn forms the Enhanced TK. Its fun to watch these things possibly unfold. The TK really catches runners. I believe Chris gave a stat of a minimum 250 pips if it goes in your direction.

Oil
Climbing massively last week as the false break pin bar led to a $7+ run in the commodity, Oil found new support today on the news that Iranian lawmakers have drafted a bill proposing a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz. This obviously would provoke a response in the West, but the obvious follow through is strong upside gains for Oil. After last weeks impulsive spike to end the week, Oil sold off in a corrective fashion for 16hrs to start this one off.

However, the news dominated the end of day moves and Oil formed a piercing bar at a key $82 support, which virtually erased the prior aggressive selling. We feel Oil short term will likely benefit from the news and will continue to make another leg up attempting to form a medium term bottom. Bulls can take short term dips to $82 with tight stops below, targeting $84 and $85.30. A break above here challenges strong resistance at $87. Bears can look for possible weakness to short at $85 and $87.



Global Market Commentary:
As we get closer to the July 4th holiday in the states, volume out of the global markets was noticeably light today as the NYSE had its lowest volume day in over a decade along with avg. trade sizes in the S&P quite low for the year. Expect this to continue till after the holiday of fireworks. That combined with their being three rate decisions this week (RBA, BOE & ECB) and its unlikely we will see massive positions being taken prior.

But there was some solid activity today in the Euro which seemed to wake up from its EU summit hangover (which we wrote about would happen soon) as it fell vs. the greenback about 100pips on the day from a high to low basis. Speaking of the Euro, with the ECB rate decision this Thursday, watch for any talk of fresh stimulus measures (read bailout out failing banks). Failure to announce this will likely hurt the EZ picture even further.

US manufacturing contracted in June for the first time since the summer of 09' suggesting the recovery and ongoing sensitivity to negative US economic news.

Upcoming Economic Announcements:

CNY Non-manufacturing PMI 01.00GMT21.00EST
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision04.30GMT00.30EST
GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction08.30GMT04.30EST
EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY)09.00GMT05.00EST
USD Factory Orders 14.00GMT10.00EST


***NOTE - because of the coming holiday on weds, I will not be writing a market commentary tomorrow.
BUT - in times like these of low liquidity, it is always a good time for study, so I will be publishing a new article tomorrow morning so stay tuned.

This is how this has ended up. Plus the two other strats are looking to come into play. So looking good. I actually got out due to the holiday, but maybe I should have stayed in and got more pips.

Wow, that's amazing. Accuracy of 57% with almost 3:1 Reward to risk is super just as it is! I am sure with PA understanding it will be even better.

Well I got out early due to the holiday, and today it took off today. It's over 3:1 right now from where I entered. Should have just let it play out. There is always more though. But this has led to the other strat I referred to. So, all is good. Easy stuff.

Was this a kumo break trade?

It was the Tenkan OCx strat. Although I thought it would go higher than the Kumo, it spent a lot of time inside the Kumo so I did not take the break. Did you say you are in the PA course?

Yup! Also looking to getting into the ichimoku course.

BTW, just a quick question since you're in the ichimoku course, are the stops and profit targets in the ichi systems defined from the get go like Price action systems?

This is the entry...I moved the stop quick because of the holiday, but originally it was 45 I believe.

Cool. Some good systems in the Price Action section. I have found recently you can combine the two in some aspects.

To answer your question yes. But since I took the Price Action and feel I am very good at reading it, I use it a lot of times with Ichi. But generally there are two trades entered and I shoot for the given stats on those and let the rest run as he suggests.

So basically you can use as given by Chris or you can play with it a bit. Which is what I do for mainly the stops. Either way it works great.

BTW, he added a new course on Time Theory which is absolutely fascinating in the Ichi course.

That sounds cool! Thanks a lot

Here are some Ichi trades I took from two different strats this morning after NFP.