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  • #11,141
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:48am Jul 5, 2012 2:48am
Well, today is one HELLUVA day for news isn't it ?
This is how I plan to play it.
GBP data :
(interest rates, but also stimulus plan info) good= LONG vs USD JPY. Bad =opposite.

NOT TOUCHING ANY COMM DOLL TIL AFTER us #'S

EU data: (interest rates, ) good= long vs. USD, JPY
Bad =SHORT vs USD,JPY

US DATA: (Employment #"s)
good = long comm dolls vs. USD, JPY, (maybe vs. EUR and GBP but based on earlier GBP EUR data)
Bad= Short EUR and Comm dolls vs JPY and USD (possible CHF, but I don't like their interventionist attitude)

There's a multitude of scenarios that could transpire today. DON'T JUMP IN EARLY !!! STRIKE AT THE RIGHT TIMES (just before news) !!
Kill or be killed today boys !! Stay vigilant!!
Happy pipping!
  • #11,142
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:54am Jul 5, 2012 2:54am
Who is "NightMoves" to say what to do that's what he said:
I am starting this thread for those who wish to exploit the trends on any pair or time frame. Post your charts, entries, targets...etc

If my idea bother you, USE" BLACK LIST + My Name " cause i am gonna do it
i would like to talk about trade " Loud and Clear" to profit or lose up to me how to analyze other signals
Have a nice day.
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,143
  • Jul 5, 2012 3:26am Jul 5, 2012 3:26am
As you can see the trend is going down but i think we have to wait till it gets to 1.2535 then open sell position of course it's a good time for scalper now
Kami
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd5July.PNG Size: 34 KB
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,144
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:15am Jul 5, 2012 4:15am
Quoting kamifx
As you can see the trend is going down but i think we have to wait till it gets to 1.2535 then open sell position of course it's a good time for scalper now
Kami
It manages to break Yesterday Support ( Of course too soon to say that ) but next strong support ( last week strong level) is 1.2455 and then 1.2410 if it breaks those levels (by H4 Candle) we have to see this pair at 1.2295 as ForexAction.com suggested as well.
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,145
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:53am Jul 5, 2012 4:53am
Quoting kamifx
As you can see the trend is going down but i think we have to wait till it gets to 1.2535 then open sell position of course it's a good time for scalper now
Kami
Again, I wouldn't open that until the news comes out.

And, who is Nightmoves ? He's the one who started this thread. He uses the same way of exploiting the markets as we do.
No one is telling you to leave this thread, but, I wouldn't expect much feedback.
Scalping threads are for scalpers, range trading threads are for range traders, this thread, is for trend traders (swing traders), using Hector traders "style" (I hate to call it that) of swing tading.
I, nor anyone else here knows your technique. So while posting your charts here is fine and dandy, again, you may want to find a thread where people speak your "language".
Around here we speak of BPC, bond movements, CDS, Setup/trigger charts, etc. If you know whay I'm talking about, you"ll find benefit here, if not, you wil learn those terms here. But, if you're just going to post charts of some radom style you trade, well, I hope your trades are successful, but there's no point in posting stuff noone understands.

This thread will help you learn OUR method.
Other than that....... stop wasting your time. (and everybody elses)

I hate to sound so cold but, seriously, if you don't want to learn the way WE trade, then you're better off starting a thread about whatever it is you call your "style " of trading.
We really want people to learn this profitable style of trading, without confusig people with a bunch of outside stuff.
Lastly I shouldn't have to ignore someone on a thread based on MY style of trading, should I ? You would think that a person was either trying to learn this stye, or they would have the common decency to find a thread where THEY fit in..... Oh well.....
Anyways. READ THIS THREAD FROM THE BEGINNING.
  • #11,146
  • Jul 5, 2012 5:21am Jul 5, 2012 5:21am
Quoting leveraged
Definate consolidation over the last 24 hours. If it can break highs at 78.92ish and then break the round number 79. short covering might reveal itself, and new takers will start entering above the 79 handle. Of course that'd have to be a sustained break above 79.

But my analysis/trading is more tailored for short-term trading.

too much news are coming. volatility recently was not anything like in 2008-1010, but it might spike with such news concentration. the market is spooky. Just thinking that Eur might dissapear...
  • #11,147
  • Jul 5, 2012 5:27am Jul 5, 2012 5:27am
Quoting shomari
Again, I wouldn't open that until the news comes out.

And, who is Nightmoves ? He's the one who started this thread. He uses the same way of exploiting the markets as we do.
No one is telling you to leave this thread, but, I wouldn't expect much feedback.
Scalping threads are for scalpers, range trading threads are for range traders, this thread, is for trend traders (swing traders), using Hector traders "style" (I hate to call it that) of swing tading.
I, nor anyone else here knows your technique. So while posting your charts here...
Shomari, I have been following this thread since 2010, so I have seen few good traders who were posting trades and set ups not exactly by Hector.
Hector is not exactly a Livermore in my mind. It is always good to learn other ways cause you never know.
It is always good to learn new things. You can get something better.
  • #11,148
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:08am Jul 5, 2012 6:08am
Shomari,thanks for your suggestion but tell you something;
Honestly, I am a Day trader, so never never just trust News for trading.
First write down my trading levels then consider other things such as indis, News, other suggestion lob, lob.
Never claim about my system or knowledge but fully familiar with all indis and I know they are just useless for opening position and predicting ( it’s obvious for all experienced traders)
and i don't suggest anyone to follow me cause i don't want to sell any thing believe it or not . As i have been lurking around this site , i find this thread without any limitation for pairs, time frame as i mentioned before ( Find in the 1st page) no need to follow another person rule or system(Read the system of this thread if you are very keen to follow rules) ( as you said cause i tested all of them ) and i think if you want to teach others that's very good better to open a thread and impose your rule and i think it's more polite to write about yourself not on behalf of others at least in this thread.( we want to trade like this or that...)
and i never tell you, you are right or wrong that's your Idea and your System. but my friend you suggested Hector ( most traders knew what he does) i studied his book many years ago now i am sure, he is better to learn so many things than publishing books
Any way i hate discussing about these things just wanna share my idea if you like it give your suggestion if not ignore it; sorry to tell you this but it's the last time i am writing about these things
with respect
Kami
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,149
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:46am Jul 5, 2012 6:46am
As i have told it's too soon to say 1.25 was broken as you can see it backed
My idea is the best level for sell position is around 1.2540 that is the safest place for opening sell position ( Considering Dominant Trend)
But What's your idea?
Kami
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU 5July-2.PNG Size: 34 KB
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,150
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:53am Jul 5, 2012 6:53am
Quoting kamifx
It manages to break Yesterday Support ( Of course too soon to say that ) but next strong support ( last week strong level) is 1.2455 and then 1.2410 if it breaks those levels (by H4 Candle) we have to see this pair at 1.2295 as ForexAction.com suggested as well.
Kami
News gives a good fuel for moving but traders are very sensitive to levels as i said hours ago about support levels
What's your experience about levels?
Do you have the same experience or not and how you consider these levels bu software or indicators or you trust your eyes?
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,151
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:08am Jul 5, 2012 7:08am
Quoting kamifx
Right now, as I said before this pair is trying to get 0.96230, though must swing between 0.9540 till 0.9585 to find momentum to get 0.96230
The best and strong level for opening Buy position is 0.9540 and if you miss this level the second level is 0.9555, but above this level is not very safe unless with very low Lot according to your balance ( for some traders 0.01 is ok and for others is 3.0 ) so it’s up to you to consider your lot
Another scenario is to break 0.95000 to down side that I share my idea about this trend later.
Kami
It gets to that level and passed
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,152
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:15am Jul 5, 2012 7:15am
Strong Level
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,153
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:17am Jul 5, 2012 8:17am
First, sorry it took this long to reply...i was partying with my american friends. Still slightly buzzed from all the alcohol.

Now, lets get back to business.

Are you sure we are reading the same article? The reason why i ask is because some of the things you quoted here i just couldn't find them in the article. Perhaps my search function is not very good. For the sake of clarity i will have to burden you with the task of providing page numbers for your quotes and references. So we can be on the same page, so to speak.

Nonetheless, i will address your quotes.

Quoting sisse
Look what they said:

 

  1. "To test our theoretical predictions ..... we need to identify individual hidden orders....... Doing this accurately [highlight]requires information about trading accounts. We do not have such information, but we do have anonymized membership codes making it possible to identify which orders are made by the same member of the exchange[/highlight]......"


And only here you can see where is the main problem.: this is not realistic for anybody not even the biggest banks in the world......

Quoting sisse
Again how on earth we found this information (1st not available for anybody) and how do we even put all this assumption in real trading terms if we don't know have the information during the fact. Yeap sure after the fact we can find ways but that is useless for trading as the move will be already gone a couple of weeks before...

You are basically stating that they need to identify hidden orders and that they do not have specific account informations. As such, where do the get the data to perform their analysis.

SIBE(the barcelona stock exchange) the membership codes are all publicly displayed. (you can find the reference to this information on the last part of page 10 and beginning of pg 11 in the article). Yes, membership codes does not mean that they automatically know the identity of who is behind the hidden orders. However, they are able to infer their identity.

exhibit a:

the works of Vaglica et al. They were able to infer the identity of hidden orders using a detection algorithm on the SIBE.(it is a short read...it shouldnt take you 15minutes to read it).
exhibit b:
the works of Lillo et al. They were able to map herding behaviours and determine styles of trading patterns among various firms. hence inferring their hidden orders behaviour.

exhibit c:

Zovko and Farmer also added weight to this with their work. here too.(they can determine the trading profile of hidden orders.)

exhibit d, the final nail in the coffin:

HERE IS A PAPER ABOUT DETECTING HIDDEN ORDERS ON THE EURONEXT. The euronext actually gave these lads access to the information to do their research.)

There is always a smart inferential way of bypassing almost anything.

SPEAKING OF FOREX....yes, they've conducted studies by going directly to interbank dealing stations UBS/REUTERS. danielson and payne of london school of economics went to interbank dealing station of reuters to have deep access to live market transactions. you can read their paper here. A short presentation is here.
http://olesiafx.com/Kathy-Lien-Day-T...p_image004.jpg


Quoting Holy Cow
Sisse, btw, in FX market we practically have no information outside of PA.
We do not have neither Level II information nor volume. I wonder why people engage in FX day trading at all when it is clear day trading stocks is much better proposition. it is always dangerous to increase leverage in FX cause we have no idea what we are buying or selling. for example we can increase size on green candle when this candle is happening on low volume but we do not know and then it obviously goes against us.

london school of economics dug interbank dealing station order flow information up.

.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,154
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:56am Jul 5, 2012 8:56am
Let me state my interest in a nutshell.

#1. The fact that power laws analysis applies at support and resistance levels.

#2. the fact that orders at support and resistance exhibited concave function

#3. the fact that results of #1 and #2 exhibited herding behaviour, either hidden or not hidden orders.

Which then leads to my interest: if one compares the two states of #3. First state of #3 where S/R levels experience a solid, sustained, runaway breakouts to second state of #3 where S/R levels experience a fake out...will there jump out reliable deviations? In terms of power laws results, concavity of orders, in respect to herding behaviours?
In essence, can the distribution/herding behaviour of the concave function/power laws analysis results indicate if a breakout is (a)about to happen? or (b)if so, in what direction? or (c)if it does happen, is this breakout reliable because it fits with historical, quantitative analysis of price behaviour at the level of market microstructure? or (d) all of the above.

that is my interest in a nutshell. fundamental analysis or technical analysis has their limits. i am interested in quantitative analysis of price behaviour by academics who have access to these deep level information(i cannot have access to euronext data like the academics do). Instead of just solely drawing lines(technical analysis) and checking the bond rates of spain vs gdp to debt ratio, etc. (fundamental analysis).

For the love of the heavens, and sweet mary mother of jesus, power laws analysis describe market behaviour before and after interest rate changes..

I want the fundamental, technical and the quantitative analysis. Technical is too linear, Fundamental is too gaussian. Quantitative is...well...let us just say that One or two is not enough for me...i want to blend them all.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,155
  • Jul 5, 2012 9:42am Jul 5, 2012 9:42am
EURUSD

1.23633 is H1 support and 1.2280 is daily Support
Don’t follow someone else’s trading advice blindly
  • #11,156
  • Jul 5, 2012 10:11am Jul 5, 2012 10:11am
Quoting shomari
I know you guys might think I'm nuts, but as far as I can see AUD, NZD, and CAD seem to be strengthening, while USD and JPY are weakening as well as GBP and EUR. So for me I'm ( I know CUSTOS w're at support). taking e/n, e/a, g/n and g/a short, and I might try the a/u, a/j, n/u and n/j long. That's mostly based on the fundamentals. I'm going to start sarching for entries now.

I'll post charts later.

tell me what you guys think.

see the violent breakouts in e/n, e/a, g/n, g/a?

are you in any?

e/n and g/a broke out and retest from behind.(i was partying too much missed all of them.)

e/a didnt even bother retesting. it just disrespect those levels like a red-headed step child.

g/n is only a few pips away from 1.9280...let us see how it handles it.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,157
  • Edited 10:57am Jul 5, 2012 10:39am | Edited 10:57am
Quoting shomari
You shoudn't be in this pair, yet. The reason it's ranging is because everyone is waiting for the US employment data, later today. Until employment #'s come out, that pair is going NOWHERE. I would suggest waiting until 2min before US data comes out and then put an entry short about 15p below price, and an entry long 15p above price. Then when US #'s come out you'll capture the big pricespike, no matter which way it goes.
But, as for right now, you are just guessing (even though your chartsmight show a valid trade), until US news comes out later,...

fwiw, I got out at 79.01 at 21:30 EDT lastnight. Made +16 pips from the 78.85 as stated on my chart posted. Fortunately I got out because it soon dropped hours after.

But now at 11:30 EDT today it still looks like a good Long from 78.85 again.
  • #11,158
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:24pm Jul 5, 2012 2:24pm
Quoting kamifx
Shomari,thanks for your suggestion but tell you something;
Honestly, I am a Day trader, so never never just trust News for trading.
First write down my trading levels then consider other things such as indis, News, other suggestion lob, lob.
Never claim about my system or knowledge but fully familiar with all indis and I know they are just useless for opening position and predicting ( it’s obvious for all experienced traders)
[font=&quot][color=red][color=black]and...
Yeah you're right. I guess I was just kind of in a crazy mood last night, not to mention a little (alot)drunk (I'm also a nightcub promoter). 4th of July in Miami, excuse my behaviour everyone.
  • #11,159
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:31pm Jul 5, 2012 2:31pm
Quoting shomari
Yeah you're right. I guess I was just kind of in a crazy mood last night, not to mention a little (alot)drunk (I'm also a nightcub promoter). 4th of July in Miami, excuse my behaviour everyone.
You are excused (as usual) , haha
  • #11,160
  • Jul 5, 2012 5:09pm Jul 5, 2012 5:09pm
Quoting Skynet
see the violent breakouts in e/n, e/a, g/n, g/a?

are you in any?

e/n and g/a broke out and retest from behind.(i was partying too much missed all of them.)

e/a didnt even bother retesting. it just disrespect those levels like a red-headed step child.

g/n is only a few pips away from 1.9280...let us see how it handles it.
SKY my brother, not onlywas I in those, I jumped on a few more. I'll post charts below. Everything was smooooooth as silk last night. Every trade banked massive pips, except I did get stopped out of the g/j trade for
-75p
Overall though, just ove 600p last night. I stayed away from the comm doll vs JPY and USD trades based on the fact I was in them earlier this week but just went absoutely NOWHERE. NZD, AUD, and CAD data has ben GREAT lately, so I rode those against GBP and EUR. People still are not confident about the EU plans. I know they gave the ECB the news powers, but it stil doesn't address the issue of sovereign debt. And forcing banks to buy bonds that are at like 6+% with the bailout money is ridiculous, cause now the banks are stuck with the risky bonds.
Anyways, they are completely unorganized. Also rode the comms on the GBP because BOE admitted they are in recession again, housing #'s wre crap, and now they"re gonna start their own QE program.
So, no brainer trades, really.

How about you ? Or anyone else ?
I hope you guys were in on last nights takings.
(and for some of you I hope you jumped out before you got trounced)

Here are my trigger charts from last night.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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