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Price Action and Trading Discussion

  • #1,761
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:35pm Jul 4, 2012 4:35pm
eur/aud long what do you guys think?

monthly resistance at lowest point its ever been.
  • #1,762
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:39pm Jul 4, 2012 4:39pm
BE entered on this EU 4 hourly position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4 hourly 05-07.jpg Size: 93 KB
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  • #1,763
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:42pm Jul 4, 2012 4:42pm
Quoting jibjib210
eur/aud long what do you guys think?

monthly resistance at lowest point its ever been.
It certainly is at a good support area, but for me there is no real PA to apply a long position to at the moment except for the fact that you are blindly buying at support.

Personally I would prefer to wait for a pullback and continuation, but that does not mean that it wont bounce right here from where it is.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,764
  • Jul 4, 2012 10:37pm Jul 4, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting jibjib210
eur/aud long what do you guys think?

monthly resistance at lowest point its ever been.
nice support but could only see it on a TL...although the Pin bar is tempting but thats about it...just tempting as there is no PA.
Would have preffered a PA at main support around 1.214ish, not until price shows me its DNA (PA) right there, I'm not generous with my $$$. See Daily and 4Hr TF chart below
Hope this helps but you could still be right though
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud daily.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud h4.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #1,765
  • Jul 4, 2012 10:49pm Jul 4, 2012 10:49pm
Quoting DarkWolF
BE entered on this EU 4 hourly position.
@DW, Very nice pips move you got on this EU bro. Your EURCAD would have put in more $$$ on the table if it was still open by now but thats trading right. No one has a crystal ball hence we cant win it completely and perfectly all the time.
Got any pair you are looking at right now? Would be fun to see your insight
  • #1,766
  • Jul 5, 2012 1:04am Jul 5, 2012 1:04am
dboy, based on what do you add positions?
Thoughts are things
  • #1,767
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:10am Jul 5, 2012 2:10am
Quoting DarkWolF
BE entered on this EU 4 hourly position.
Hi DarkWolf
I am learning to understand & analyse charts, I always try to understand your comments and get the point out, your comments are quite helpful in many posts.

In this graph, how come yours is different then mine?
thx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU4h-201207050805.jpg Size: 226 KB
  • #1,768
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:13am Jul 5, 2012 2:13am
Quoting chandresh
Hi DarkWolf
I am learning to understand & analyse charts, I always try to understand your comments and get the point out, your comments are quite helpful in many posts.

In this graph, how come yours is different then mine?
thx
Your broker has a different feed. He does not close candles at the same time as DW's.

Its not a big deal, but people usually prefer a broker, which closes the daily candle when NY market closes; as it is the unofficial end of the day.
Thoughts are things
  • #1,769
  • Jul 5, 2012 2:50am Jul 5, 2012 2:50am
2 trades I'm in.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ac.jpg Size: 210 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gn.jpg Size: 199 KB
Thoughts are things
  • #1,770
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:28am Jul 5, 2012 4:28am
Quoting dboy365
@DW, Very nice pips move you got on this EU bro. Your EURCAD would have put in more $$$ on the table if it was still open by now but thats trading right. No one has a crystal ball hence we cant win it completely and perfectly all the time.
Got any pair you are looking at right now? Would be fun to see your insight
Ya' the EU trade is coming along nicely at the moment I will be putting some serious thought into wether to simply take the profit off soonish or at very least move my stop down to protect some pips with some of the data like NFP that is due out today and tomorrow.

The EURCAD has pretty much reached my original target, but yes indeed that is trading. You cant worry about what might have been, as it could just as easy have gone long from the lows. I always say that taking profit is without doubt the hardest thing in trading and sometimes the best thing to do is take the emotion out of it, put your TP order in and dont mess with it if its hit its hit.

I will try and and do up some images a little later of some of the things I am keeping an eye on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 76 KB
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  • #1,771
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:41am Jul 5, 2012 4:41am
Quoting chandresh
Hi DarkWolf
I am learning to understand & analyse charts, I always try to understand your comments and get the point out, your comments are quite helpful in many posts.

In this graph, how come yours is different then mine?
thx
I am glad I can be of some help.

Like Quezoy stated Chandresh its simply the broker feeds that are slightly different.

I have attached 2 imgaes with the first one being the broker I use to chart from which is Alpari and another showing a different feed.

These images are taken from the Metatrader 4 Market Watch tab. Notice how the second one is an hour behind the first one, simply meaning that the candle will close one hour after the first one.

Someone may correct me if I am wrong but I think this is simply the amount of hours away from GMT time that the bars close.

So I use the Alpari charts to analyse from, FX Pro also has the same time feeds as Alpari. I am sure there is probably a few others around also.

I hope this helps if not let me know.
Attached Images
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  • #1,772
  • Jul 5, 2012 4:52am Jul 5, 2012 4:52am
Quoting Quezoy
2 trades I'm in.
AUDCAD has been trending up, I would be cautious with that one.

GBPNZD is looking like it may continue hopefully making it at least to the next RN area for you. The trend has been strongly down on this pair also.

There is some GBP news out soonish with one them being a cash rate, forecast for no change though.
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  • #1,773
  • Jul 5, 2012 5:32am Jul 5, 2012 5:32am
Quoting DarkWolF
AUDCAD has been trending up, I would be cautious with that one.
It was, but now price is at some major resistance areas and I expected a break down below 1.04, after cosolidation, to continue south.
For now, it moves up and is approaching the 50 fib ret. Lets see what happens here and Ill decide what to do then.

Quoting DarkWolF
GBPNZD is looking like it may continue hopefully making it at least to the next RN area for you. The trend has been strongly down on this pair also.
Took 40 at yesterday's low, rest at BE.
Thoughts are things
  • #1,774
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:31am Jul 5, 2012 6:31am
There is an obvious channel appearing on the chart, quite often after a reasonable move down we will see this take place followed by a continuation move of some descripition.

Keeping an eye on this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU Daily.jpg Size: 87 KB
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  • #1,775
  • Jul 5, 2012 6:34am Jul 5, 2012 6:34am
Similar to EU this one has an obvious wedge appearing after a reasonable move down.

This can be a good sing of a potential continuation.

Wait and see how it plays out.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EJ Daily.jpg Size: 83 KB
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  • #1,776
  • Jul 5, 2012 7:15am Jul 5, 2012 7:15am
Position closed banked the pips at the support evident just above the 1.24000 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 4 hourly TP 05-07.jpg Size: 87 KB
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  • #1,777
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:35am Jul 5, 2012 8:35am
Waiting to see what way price wants to go.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GJ Daily.jpg Size: 80 KB
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  • #1,778
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:40am Jul 5, 2012 8:40am
Quoting DarkWolF
Position closed banked the pips at the support evident just above the 1.24000 area.
Nice!. I also saw the wedge both on the Daily and H4 and on other pairs (hopefully, I'd share with the house next time even though I wont be taking it. Didnt take this one as I have most of my Account risk on the GBPCAD, Gold and CADCHF which are all doing pretty awesome. Did see other prospect too but we cant take all the potential checks (Setups) the market's offering right?
Was sleeping only to wake up to see a huge drop in GBP and skyrocketing of CADCHF; I knew the rate scandal would be a huge deal but not this huge drop of $$$ in my account while I enjoy my sleep after the 4th celebration yesterday. Thanks to PA.
A quick update from my GBPCAD, 196pips on 1st, 124 on 2nd, 67pips on 3rd. All SL moved to 3rd BE, banking huge profits while having no risk on even the 3rd. Seems 4th sell stop is about to be triggered.
Meanwhile, I'm up 171pips on CADCHF. Gold's remaining 20% was stopped out at a little profit.
Good morning from the States.

@Quezoy, I have many methods of adding positons but all these are done with strick MM and position sizing calculated from an Excel program. One of the methods is:
On placing Sell/Buy stops few pips after S/R in the direction of the trend using previous entries as SL (or predetermined smaller SL above/below a RN if differences in pips between S/R are so huge); I try to figure out the pips move between positions ($$$ to be banked from moving preceding SL to BE of succeeding positions), then calculate the succeeding position size from potential acc bal (based on moved preceeding SL i.e banked $$$). I usually get an alarm when price reaches a particular entry so I can move the SL using my iphone/ipad.

Another method is the "trend following" position adding method by Ed Ponsi in his book "Forex Patterns and Probabilities: Trading Strategies for Trending and Range-Bound Markets". Great read but this method has made my account fatter (because every new succeeding positions has a bigger lot size because of bank profit) than his so I like using this. I am not very good with explaining ideas but I hope this helps.

Just a quick one on your AUDCAD, price has been stalling and looking to break support down but nobody is selling the CAD and AUD is a strong currency too because they are both "commodities" economy. So I didnt trade this one as I expected ranging moves and SL hunting. See charts below
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gcad.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: acad h4.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #1,779
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:47am Jul 5, 2012 8:47am
Quoting dboy365
Nice!. I also saw the wedge both on the Daily and H4 and on other pairs (hopefully, I'd share with the house next time even though I wont be taking it. Didnt take this one as I have most of my Account risk on the GBPCAD, Gold and CADCHF which are all doing pretty awesome. Did see other prospect too but we cant take all the potential checks (Setups) the market's offering right?
[b]Was sleeping only to wake up to see a huge drop in GBP and skyrocketing of CADCHF; I knew the rate scandal would be a huge deal but not this huge drop of $$$ in...
Has certainly been a nice move for you that is for sure. Good work.
Twitter - DarkWolF@OzForexTrader - Facebook Page - link in post 1
  • #1,780
  • Jul 5, 2012 8:47am Jul 5, 2012 8:47am
Got two ebooks to read...
The Way of the Turtle by Faith Curtis and
The Complete Turtle trader by Michael Covel
Hopefully, I'd learn alot from them like others in this great house.
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