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  • #61
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:26am Jul 4, 2012 1:26am
just a thought you may be better off taking 2.5% per trade

10% loss per day is hi if both lose

Ive had 6 or 7 losers on the trot if that happens on both your down 70%

As I said just a thought

P
  • #62
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:29am Jul 4, 2012 1:29am
Percentage,

Regarding your question a few pages back about hedging...
I've been thinking about it and it makes the most sense that if the Frankfurt trade hasn't closed by London Open then only take the first signal in the direction of the Frankfurt trade (i.e add to your open position).

I would be interested in hearing what others think about this?

I am going to do the above if this scenario happens this morning as at the moment the Frankfurt trade is still open.

This is the way I'm going to do it to keep the results consistent for me. If someone else wants to keep the results taking either signal then that's fine.

JPR
  • #63
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:33am Jul 4, 2012 1:33am
Quoting Paulus
just a thought you may be better off taking 2.5% per trade

10% loss per day is hi if both lose

Ive had 6 or 7 losers on the trot if that happens on both your down 70%

As I said just a thought

P
Hi Paulus,

I am only risking 2% per trade on this strategy (max loss 4% per day, Max gain 12%).
  • #64
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:33am Jul 4, 2012 1:33am
I will update post 1 with this information.
  • #65
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:36am Jul 4, 2012 1:36am
I'm doing the same on my end as I stated in one of my previous post.

Quoting Jpr
Hi Paulus,

I am only risking 2% per trade on this strategy (max loss 4% per day, Max gain 12%).
  • #66
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:38am Jul 4, 2012 1:38am
I agree with you on this Jpr. Only taking the trade if it goes in the same direction as the Frankfurt trade makes the most sense.

Others can do what they want but I'm going to stick to what Jpr stated.

Quoting Jpr
Percentage,

Regarding your question a few pages back about hedging...
I've been thinking about it and it makes the most sense that if the Frankfurt trade hasn't closed by London Open then only take the first signal in the direction of the Frankfurt trade (i.e add to your open position).

I would be interested in hearing what others think about this?

I am going to do the above if this scenario happens this morning as at the moment the Frankfurt trade is still open.

This is the way I'm going to do it to keep the results consistent for me....
  • #67
  • Jul 4, 2012 1:48am Jul 4, 2012 1:48am
Strada,

Did this situation ever happen to you in your backtesting or forward testing (where the first trade was still open at the time of the second trade)?
  • #68
  • Jul 4, 2012 2:01am Jul 4, 2012 2:01am
Ok London just opened and the Frankfurt trade is still open so I am going to take the first signal LONG and ignore shorts.
  • #69
  • Jul 4, 2012 2:10am Jul 4, 2012 2:10am
Well we will see how it works out as there is a valid long for the London session. Gotta take my dog out or I would post a chart.

Quoting Jpr
Ok London just opened and the Frankfurt trade is still open so I am going to take the first signal LONG and ignore shorts.
  • #70
  • Jul 4, 2012 2:10am Jul 4, 2012 2:10am
London Entry @ 1.25927
SL @ 1.25881
TP @ 1.26065

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 5.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #71
  • Jul 4, 2012 2:20am Jul 4, 2012 2:20am
The market wanted to be mean to us tonight and stop us out on both trades.

I'm only demo trading this method right now. Decided to start slow and demo trade rather than trade live from the gate.

For the week I'm down -4% as I only risk 2% per trade.
  • #72
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:23am Jul 4, 2012 3:23am
B 591.8 @ 7.05am; SL 587.8; TP 598.8; closed at 599.2 Profit
B 592.5 @ 8.07am; SL 589.0; TP 601.0; closed at 588.6 Loss
+10% for today.
-10% yesterday
+10% Monday.

JPR, yes I did come across that on a couple of occasions where the 7am trade over-ran into London session. I just let the 7am run and when closed took the next London signal available.
However I'm not sure if that is the correct way to deal with it because it may not be the 1st London signal. Take the point made earlier that if you did take the first London trade while the 7am trade was still running you could be trading against yourself.
A possible solution in this situation might be to adopt the 3rd option in the "combinations" on my spreadsheet ie "stop at win". So if the overunning trade is a win and you've missed the 1st london trade then stop with the profit from the 7am trade. If it's a loss then take the next available London trade.
One of the other checks I did was to see what happened if after a loss you carried on taking the next signal, in most cases the 2nd or 3rd trade would be a win, however there were occasions when it was several more before a win so I abandoned that idea and I've always been dead against any kind of martingale method.
This morning I wasn't comfortable with the 2nd trade as a few minutes earlier I'd entered a short trade on my normal MO and so I was trading against myself, not for long as it happens.
Re Paulus's point about a long losing sequence, perhaps he's right about going to 2.5/7.5% for the time being until we have better forward testing. Previous results suggest it is unlikely to have long losing day runs but previous performance is no guarantee......and all that.
Now looking out for the PMI news at 9.28.
strada.
  • #73
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:24am Jul 4, 2012 3:24am
Quoting Percentage
The market wanted to be mean to us tonight and stop us out on both trades.

I'm only demo trading this method right now. Decided to start slow and demo trade rather than trade live from the gate.

For the week I'm down -4% as I only risk 2% per trade.
Yep good to demo until you have confidence in the results for yourself.

If you want to check out another good method I use (and I think Paulus still does) its the Dredding freebie newbie system which can be found also in the journals section (?).

Anyway results so far (since Monday 2 July):

Frankfurt: WLL
London: LLL
  • #74
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:28am Jul 4, 2012 3:28am
Quoting strada
B 591.8 @ 7.05am; SL 587.8; TP 598.8; closed at 599.2 Profit
B 592.5 @ 8.07am; SL 589.0; TP 601.0; closed at 588.6 Loss
+10% for today.
-10% yesterday
+10% Monday.

JPR, yes I did come across that on a couple of occasions where the 7am trade over-ran into London session. I just let the 7am run and when closed took the next London signal available.
However I'm not sure if that is the correct way to deal with it because it may not be the 1st London signal. Take the point made earlier that if you did take the first London trade while the...
Cheers Strada,
The main thing I have also been looking at is if the Frankfurt Trade is a win then stopping, but I'm going to get a decent batch of results before making any decisions. Early days.
  • #75
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:10am Jul 4, 2012 6:10am
Yeah I felt demo trading first was the smartest decision to make. Don't want to try and jump in the deep end before even getting my feet wet.

I will give that thread a look.

Quoting Jpr
Yep good to demo until you have confidence in the results for yourself.

If you want to check out another good method I use (and I think Paulus still does) its the Dredding freebie newbie system which can be found also in the journals section (?).

Anyway results so far (since Monday 2 July):

Frankfurt: WLL
London: LLL
  • #76
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:12am Jul 4, 2012 6:12am
That's a viable option Jpr. Especially since a winner in Frankfurt will give you a 6% profit (I think you said you are trading at a 2% risk per trade also).

I've learned over time that the less time I'm in the market, the more successful my trading is.

Quoting Jpr
Cheers Strada,
The main thing I have also been looking at is if the Frankfurt Trade is a win then stopping, but I'm going to get a decent batch of results before making any decisions. Early days.
  • #77
  • Jul 4, 2012 8:40am Jul 4, 2012 8:40am
Quoting Jpr
Cheers Strada,
The main thing I have also been looking at is if the Frankfurt Trade is a win then stopping, but I'm going to get a decent batch of results before making any decisions. Early days.
Keep an eye on the 7am with bias trades, they have done just about as well as the unbiased trades at 7 in all my testing.
Using "stop at win" with7am Biased and 8am unbiased trade for follow up if required shows good results. It wasn't on the spreadsheet but the results for that period were W28; L7.
The reasons for not using the bias at 8am are obvious. However the bias does work for 7am as the activity between 6&7 is created mainly by mainland europe and continued by them after 7am and before London gets into gear.
strada.
  • #78
  • Jul 4, 2012 11:14am Jul 4, 2012 11:14am
Quoting strada

Re Paulus's point about a long losing sequence, perhaps he's right about going to 2.5/7.5% for the time being until we have better forward testing. Previous results suggest it is unlikely to have long losing day runs but previous performance is no guarantee......and all that.
Now looking out for the PMI news at 9.28.
strada.
Just a point

Lets say the average results over 2months have several losing runs of 5 or more

I have worked on this principle before a few years ago and it went along the lines of probability,abeit it was trading a basket full of options on the Ftse and the 100 equities listed at that time....so we would often be looking to have several positions open on several equities

If we have a sequence of WW LLLL WWW LLLLLLL W LLL WWW LLLLLL W on any given equity...in this case EU

The average losing run in the above is 5

Therfore we wait until we have 4 losers then take a trade..we have decreased our chances of a loss and increased our chances of a win

For this to work as we did a few years back you have to have a rolling monthly average..ie at the end of month 2 the average may of dropped to 4 so we wait for 3 losers then trade

This may of been a reflection of a long strong trend ( winners) then exhaustion and sideways moves ( losers)

Once rested and areas defined the trend re establishes or reverses ( winners)

We run calculations like this on 20 or 30 equities we traded most often

But you have to have several swaps or the trades come few and far between..it was just another way of stacking the odds and using the hidden figures and averages to our advantage
  • #79
  • Jul 4, 2012 12:26pm Jul 4, 2012 12:26pm
Hi Paulus, first of all why aren't you watching the tennis???? I'm just having a quick tension break after Murray won the 3rd set, it's a lot more stressful watching him than trading, that's for sure.

Absolutely no doubt about the scenario you portrayed as long as it's an instrument with reasonable results either way but I think you hit the nail on the head over the timescale issue, the trades could be a long time coming and I'd have to go out to work.

I'm going to have another long hard look at your original rules but using the 7am start with bias. Have you been watching this?
strada.
  • #80
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:55pm Jul 4, 2012 4:55pm
Quoting Paulus
Just a point

Lets say the average results over 2months have several losing runs of 5 or more

I have worked on this principle before a few years ago and it went along the lines of probability,abeit it was trading a basket full of options on the Ftse and the 100 equities listed at that time....so we would often be looking to have several positions open on several equities

If we have a sequence of WW LLLL WWW LLLLLLL W LLL WWW LLLLLL W on any given equity...in this case EU

The average losing run in the above is 5

Therfore we wait until...
That is a really good point and it's something I have thought of before. Once a good sample of results have been collected (i'm thinking 50) then I may start to incorporate this into the strategy - e.g wait for 4 losers in a row then trade (maybe higher risk?).

Another thing I am thinking of is just using the Daily Pivot as a bias for the trade. For example if price is lower than daily pivot then just take the first short signal and if price is above daily pivot then just take first long signal. Exactly the same as your original method but use the Pivot to determine bias rather than the line.

I am actually going to start keeping records of these results as well moving forward, so I will have:

Frankfurt Open trade - No bias
London Open trade - No bias
Frankfurt Open trade - Daily pivot bias
London Open trade - Daily pivot bias

My daily pivot will always be calculated from Midnight to Midnight local (UK) time.
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