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AUD/USD

  • #48,541
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:52am Jul 4, 2012 3:52am
Quoting HeavenBlade
??
he wants to see it 3 times :-)
  • #48,542
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:55am Jul 4, 2012 3:55am
Quoting arcticpolar
i doubt they are exhausted... but you can't just keep going up without falling back down right? not including the 2008 situation and some other times. if it continues to be a bear below 1.0000 then I'll consider being a bear. I tried many times shorting this and was wrong many times. this time stopped out and it reversed. o_O maybe i'll be better as a bull. I would try a bull trade at 1.01000? perhaps but most likely it won't even reach that point.
agree with you.

i expect corrective move, my reentry target is at 1.0190~1.0160 area, but now it appears, the bear is not strong enough (i mean there is not much seller even with this high price...)

i also agree with you about shorting this pair only makes more loss than profit. IMHO, big player is making money by "investing" on high yield asset, so they don't short this thing, instead they will unwind their position if things is going bad, this will happen so fast, on most of time we hard to follow... to successful shorting asset, you need high skill to be a "speculator". you need to short before they unwind their position.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #48,543
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:57am Jul 4, 2012 3:57am
Quoting HeavenBlade
?? sorry do you mean like the picture can't be seen (the link is broken etc.)

yup
  • #48,544
  • Edited 4:43am Jul 4, 2012 4:15am | Edited 4:43am
Quoting Mr. Monk
yup

Ah.

http://www.screencast.com/t/Hx5R5BN5N

Well I hope that link can load because I don't know how else to upload the pic. Btw it shows a very different picture from redbox's technical drawings, so perhaps it can better explain the rejection from a purely technical point.

And there you go the updated chart after sometime... seems to confirm the pattern.

http://www.screencast.com/t/pSqJldOZYWv8
  • #48,545
  • Jul 4, 2012 4:23am Jul 4, 2012 4:23am
Momentum on AUDUSD is looking quite bearish now on all the timeframes from 15 minutes out to the 8 hour chart. Therefore, I'm looking for pullbacks of around 2% nominal value in most of the AUD pairs. As I also expect to see particular strength from the JPY and CHF in the coming days, I've shorted AUDCHF and AUDJPY today.

Here are my trade specs:

AUDCHF entered at .9790. Stop: .9956. Limit: .9595.

AUDJPY entered at 82.04. Stop: 84.43. Limit: 80.80.

I am prepared to add leverage to these positions should they go against me moderately, hence the seemingly long stops.

http://saigonfx.files.wordpress.com/...top-july04.jpg
  • #48,546
  • Jul 4, 2012 5:22am Jul 4, 2012 5:22am
Quoting redbox
agree with you.

i expect corrective move, my reentry target is at 1.0190~1.0160 area, but now it appears, the bear is not strong enough (i mean there is not much seller even with this high price...)

i also agree with you about shorting this pair only makes more loss than profit. IMHO, big player is making money by "investing" on high yield asset, so they don't short this thing, instead they will unwind their position if things is going bad, this will happen so fast, on most of time we hard to follow... to successful shorting asset, you need...
I am bullish now but only for 30 to 60 minutes.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,547
  • Jul 4, 2012 5:38am Jul 4, 2012 5:38am
Quoting redbox
agree with you.

i expect corrective move, my reentry target is at 1.0190~1.0160 area, but now it appears, the bear is not strong enough (i mean there is not much seller even with this high price...)

i also agree with you about shorting this pair only makes more loss than profit. IMHO, big player is making money by "investing" on high yield asset, so they don't short this thing, instead they will unwind their position if things is going bad, this will happen so fast, on most of time we hard to follow... to successful shorting asset, you need...
Well say I'm hoping to short 20 lots of AUDUSD (2,000,000). My interest payment a day will only add up to say about 180 dollars. In contrast, every pip it falls nets me 200 dollars. Say I'm in it for 2 days, and within these 2 days AUDUSD falls by 50 pips. I'd have earned 10k from the trade, minus the 360 dollars, that'd still add up to more than 9.4k.

So your theory is only true assuming big players are only interested in the positive carry so to speak. They could just as well enter when AUD is overpriced to shock the market downwards because negative interest doesn't really pose a problem for them. Also it seems that only in the past 2 years that AUD broke above parity, possibly due to weakening USD. With risk slowing down worldwide (China, Europe etc.) AUD in the long run will find its place slightly below parity.
  • #48,548
  • Jul 4, 2012 5:50am Jul 4, 2012 5:50am
Quoting DaddyBear
I am bullish now but only for 30 to 60 minutes.
So are you DaddyBull now?
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #48,549
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:06am Jul 4, 2012 6:06am
Quoting HeavenBlade
Well say I'm hoping to short 20 lots of AUDUSD (2,000,000). My interest payment a day will only add up to say about 180 dollars. In contrast, every pip it falls nets me 200 dollars. Say I'm in it for 2 days, and within these 2 days AUDUSD falls by 50 pips. I'd have earned 10k from the trade, minus the 360 dollars, that'd still add up to more than 9.4k.
yes, if you are in right direction, you will make huge profit.
on down day, all high yield asset can down really fast = huge profit.
if you wrong, your damage will more with negative swap.

Quote
So your theory is only true assuming big players are only interested in the positive carry so to speak. They could just as well enter when AUD is overpriced to shock the market downwards because negative interest doesn't really pose a problem for them. Also it seems that only in the past 2 years that AUD broke above parity, possibly due to weakening USD. With risk slowing down worldwide (China, Europe etc.) AUD in the long run will find its place slightly below parity.

you talk like you know what the price will be going
if one can know for sure, that market itself will be broken.
no one want to trade agaist you.
big player make money by investing, by invest on riskier asset when time is good. when time is bad, they will protect their "performance".

if you see a lot of market, you can see,
eg. last Friday, you can see AUD up, EUR up, NZD up, equity up, commodity up. on other day, when one down, others is down too. why?

think this is coincidence? DON'T
  • #48,550
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:15am Jul 4, 2012 6:15am
Quoting mrbandwidth
So are you DaddyBull now?
No. Just a bullish DaddyBear for a joy ride with bulls.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,551
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:27am Jul 4, 2012 6:27am
Quoting HeavenBlade
Well say I'm hoping to short 20 lots of AUDUSD (2,000,000). My interest payment a day will only add up to say about 180 dollars. In contrast, every pip it falls nets me 200 dollars. Say I'm in it for 2 days, and within these 2 days AUDUSD falls by 50 pips. I'd have earned 10k from the trade, minus the 360 dollars, that'd still add up to more than 9.4k.

So your theory is only true assuming big players are only interested in the positive carry so to speak. They could just as well enter when AUD is overpriced to shock the market downwards because...
Well you forgot one little fact, big investors don't trade Forex, they convert other low interest currencies into AUD and park their cash in Aussie banks where they can earn over 5%pa.
Also any foreign money invested in any current project in Australia needs to be converted first, all those conversions add up and inevitably push the exchange rate up.
Simple supply and demand reality, retail Forex is basically insignificant in determining the actual exchange rate.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,552
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:30am Jul 4, 2012 6:30am
Quoting redbox
yes, if you are in right direction, you will make huge profit.
on down day, all high yield asset can down really fast = huge profit.
if you wrong, your damage will more with negative swap.



you talk like you know what the price will be going
if one can know for sure, that market itself will be broken.
no one want to trade agaist you.
big player make money by investing, by invest on riskier asset when time is good. when time is bad, they will protect their "performance".

if you see a lot of market, you can see,
eg. last Friday,...
Essentially yes, I agree with you. I am merely offering a different perspective.

Right now we seem to have a minor shark in the waters scenario; a consolidation poised for the New York markets to take to another level. Unfortunately banks are closed, so I wonder where the movement will come from, if at all. According the the past pattern it may break up, right back to the top of the channel. I hope, however, that it breaks down, and ends the channel paradigm for these 2 days.

http://tinyurl.com/7wcdl63
  • #48,553
  • Jul 4, 2012 6:43am Jul 4, 2012 6:43am
Quoting stulic
Well you forgot one little fact, big investors don't trade Forex, they convert other low interest currencies into AUD and park their cash in Aussie banks where they can earn over 5%pa.
Also any foreign money invested in any current project in Australia needs to be converted first, all those conversions add up and inevitably push the exchange rate up.
Simple supply and demand reality, retail Forex is basically insignificant in determining the actual exchange rate.
Yes I do not dispute that. I wonder though if AUD manipulation on a large scale is possible. In that case how do investors do it if they do not trade Forex? Clearly not in the same way as us... but I believe they do have the might to sink it if they wish.

Just for the record I am of the sentiment that the Australian currency is designed to be bullish very long term, but in the shorter long term... with risk looking bad in general, as redbox says, the big guys may take out their money and put it in something else. Year end forecasts of AUDUSD are for now below parity and I think for good reason.
  • #48,554
  • Jul 4, 2012 7:20am Jul 4, 2012 7:20am
Quoting HeavenBlade
Yes I do not dispute that. I wonder though if AUD manipulation on a large scale is possible. In that case how do investors do it if they do not trade Forex? Clearly not in the same way as us... but I believe they do have the might to sink it if they wish.

Just for the record I am of the sentiment that the Australian currency is designed to be bullish very long term, but in the shorter long term... with risk looking bad in general, as redbox says, the big guys may take out their money and put it in something else....
They trade between each other, major banks especially, some large hedge funds and some central banks bid and ask all the time. Depending on volume in the market some of them clearly could move the exchange rate one way or another through rogue bids.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,555
  • Jul 4, 2012 8:51am Jul 4, 2012 8:51am
GO AUD GO!!!!!!!


Yes in terms of manipulation the RBA has openly stated they do not like a high aud. ...

What else is new?
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #48,556
  • Jul 4, 2012 8:52am Jul 4, 2012 8:52am
she needs to wipe out .o31
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #48,557
  • Jul 4, 2012 8:59am Jul 4, 2012 8:59am
Quoting XTrade
she needs to wipe out .o31
Breaking up as predicted. I think she may have an upside of 1.035 as that was a point of major contention quite awhile back. From there we may expect a bounce down.

Say however, if she keeps on bouncing up and down the channels... she may end up falling all the way back down 1.016 levels even after clearing 1.031.

Speaking of which, I need to be patient and not overtrade lol. Just lost today's pie to the ravens.
  • #48,558
  • Jul 4, 2012 9:53am Jul 4, 2012 9:53am
Quoting HeavenBlade
Yes I do not dispute that. I wonder though if AUD manipulation on a large scale is possible. In that case how do investors do it if they do not trade Forex? Clearly not in the same way as us... but I believe they do have the might to sink it if they wish.

Just for the record I am of the sentiment that the Australian currency is designed to be bullish very long term, but in the shorter long term... with risk looking bad in general, as redbox says, the big guys may take out their money and put it in something else. Year end forecasts of AUDUSD...
i'm agree with stulic about big money are not trading fx, but...
they targeting 'equity' market. to be able to invest at Australia for example, they need to convert some capital (usually from low borrowing cost like $, ¥ or Fr) to A$. --- i'm not trading Australia equity market but i can predict now it in bullish momentum.

yes, in long term outlook, i think AUD will make new high. 1.2xxx 1.3xxx i don't know how far it can fly. it applied to other riskier asset like S&P, etc... for short term, we just get out from risk aversion mode.
i also think there will be a down time, but not because big player unwind they position. big money have difficulity to deal with liquidity, its not easy to in & out market like us. but they can make some bad news to scare retail out the market.
  • #48,559
  • Jul 4, 2012 10:11am Jul 4, 2012 10:11am
Quoting redbox
i'm agree with stulic about big money are not trading fx, but...
they targeting 'equity' market. to be able to invest at Australia for example, they need to convert some capital (usually from low borrowing cost like $, ¥ or Fr) to A$. --- i'm not trading Australia equity market but i can predict now it in bullish momentum.

yes, in long term outlook, i think AUD will make new high. 1.2xxx 1.3xxx i don't know how far it can fly. it applied to other riskier asset like S&P, etc... for short term, we just get out from risk aversion mode.
i also think...
I see. Thanks for the perspective
  • #48,560
  • Jul 4, 2012 11:03am Jul 4, 2012 11:03am
Quoting redbox
i'm agree with stulic about big money are not trading fx, but...
they targeting 'equity' market. to be able to invest at Australia for example, they need to convert some capital (usually from low borrowing cost like $, ¥ or Fr) to A$. --- i'm not trading Australia equity market but i can predict now it in bullish momentum.

yes, in long term outlook, i think AUD will make new high. 1.2xxx 1.3xxx i don't know how far it can fly. it applied to other riskier asset like S&P, etc... for short term, we just get out from risk aversion mode.
i...
Big money do trade Forex. At least I know Japanese exporters trade Forex to hedge their risks.
daddybearforex. com
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