AUD/USD

Although I could not see the future, I think the tidal wave has reached its peak. This could be the end of the counter trend since June 1. You mentioned 1.03 before. I believe you saw something that I overlooked. Could you share your insight? Thanks. -papa-

hi, DB,
this is my Elliot Wave. based on human psychology

"Bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria."

Sir John Templeton

Wonderful! You are a wise man too. I guess we are in the final stage.

I don't think bear is the dark side. Bear and bull are complementary to each other like Ying and Yang. Without bear, bull cannot survive. Without bull, bear has no beef to eat. So bulls and bears are friends when you look into the way market works.

It could have just reached its peak in short term, but I'm afraid that 1.0370 is still in sight, maybe the data we're having this week such as NFP would get us there, but I don't know, I couldn't see the future either.

I'm using stochastic correlated with candlesticks (high and low prices) from different timeframes to calculate price limits and the probability of where the price might go.

Here are some examples on my AUD calculations on H1 and H4





to find an upper limit of where a price might go, I find the lowest price of the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the lowest line (valley) of stochastic bellow level 30 (let's call it point A)
then find the highest price of the candlestick which is vertically aligned with the line of stochastic that crosses (OR recrosses) level 50 (call it point B)

then the calculation is

target 1 = B + ((B - A) x 0.4)
target 2 = B + (B - A)

to find lower limit (target) I do the opposite,
I use the highest price of the vertically aligned candlestick with the peak stochastic line above 70 (point A)
then find the lowest price of the candlestick which is aligned with the stochastic line that crosses (or recrosses) level 50 (point B)
and the calculation would be
target 1 = B - ((A - B) x 0.4)
target 2 = B - (A - B)

and ofcourse there are some circumstances that you need to void these calculations such as the bigger timeframe(s) points to other direction or neither 2 lower timeframes doesn't support the calculation.
For example :
D1 needs to be supported by either H4 or H1
H4 needs to be supported by either H1 or M30,
H1 needs to be sipported by either M30 or M15
etc...

Although those calculations are not 100% nor even 90% accurate (well nothing is) usually they are more/less by 5 to 10 pips to the target, at least it has given me some predictions on where the price might go, and also I use the MA's and bollinger bands that I have posted here earlier as a map.

1.0370 is the D1 first target, but neither H1 or H4 have supported the number hence I took the short position.

OK Papa, thanks for the heads up. Let me revise my statement then

I'm joining the grey side now

Bear train taking passengers now.

(4H Candle close)

bull exhausted?

All aboard http://www.family-vacation-getaways-...hParkTrain.gif

lagi ngaso' dulu bro, ntar juga bangun lagi

My kid love it.

yes.

I just showed it to my 2 year old son, he loves it too

stopped out at 1.03000 dang... why! oh why! oh why! direction is right but eh... couldn't get it at 1.0320... so now i'm pooped. I guess find place to enter on the way back up. o_O any clue when?

i doubt they are exhausted... but you can't just keep going up without falling back down right? not including the 2008 situation and some other times. if it continues to be a bear below 1.0000 then I'll consider being a bear. I tried many times shorting this and was wrong many times. this time stopped out and it reversed. o_O maybe i'll be better as a bull. I would try a bull trade at 1.01000? perhaps but most likely it won't even reach that point.

am happy

As much as I'd like to pronounce the bull slain by bearish claws, I'd have to say that it may want to rise up for another battle, that is if the channel holds:

http://tinyurl.com/7xrh8obv

reload ur pic.. plz

?? sorry do you mean like the picture can't be seen (the link is broken etc.)