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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs

  • #961
  • Jul 3, 2012 9:53am Jul 3, 2012 9:53am
I trade futures and i only trade 1 contract or lot,so i'm not sure if i should let trade run from supply to demand and vice versa or just close out half way or use some sort of trailing stop ratio
  • #962
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:01am Jul 3, 2012 10:01am
Quoting Rsherl01
That is a beautiful piece of demand from Friday. Hopefully have enough buyers to get me to my initial target. Longer term i dont know how the Euro is going to stay at these levels. Really shows the power of supply and demand how we are not sub 1.20 at present..

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Rsher01, did you have a buy order at the 51/63 level?
  • #963
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:08am Jul 3, 2012 10:08am
Quoting bodine
Seem to B/E a lot on that 5min,read were Dean moves stop when he's up 5 to 7 to B/E i move mine when i get to 7 doesn't seem like a lot of room to breathe
Bodine,

I agree, +7 is quite tight! I think for me it depends on the initial risk. The EU M15 scalp (stopped out breakeven by the way) was filled at 86 with stop at 92. I was trying to short on a continuation of the downward wedge, and those trades - when they work - tend to move quite quickly I've found.
  • #964
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:10am Jul 3, 2012 10:10am
Simond,

Had a buy order at 1.2559 with a 10pip SL. Nearly caught it to the pip. I have been watching that level since early yesterday morning and honestly my patience nearly ran out.

I find that happens me alot. I ID a great area and there is so much noise above this area that my patience ran out. made a point of it to wait this one out. If you look at the big jump up last Friday there was alot of what looks like compression up to liquidity before the major move and the base of this is normally where the smart orders are. Might take us a while but i reckon we will see 1.2620 before we see my BE.

Bodine,
If you can identify the exact point where the decision is made then you should feel more comfortable moving to BE. There is normally only a touch on this levels. Otherwise you will have to deal with a lot of noise and emotion before you see your trade close.
  • #965
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:20am Jul 3, 2012 10:20am
Looking at this swap zone. No patience to wait and PA is stalling so gonna take the money off the table. +47 pips not bad for nearly 48 hours wait ..

If i was further along in my development id hope to leave half open but not trading with massive money so would like to feel rewarded for my patience.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #966
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:27am Jul 3, 2012 10:27am
Quoting Rsherl01
Simond,

Had a buy order at 1.2559 with a 10pip SL. Nearly caught it to the pip. I have been watching that level since early yesterday morning and honestly my patience nearly ran out.

I find that happens me alot. I ID a great area and there is so much noise above this area that my patience ran out. made a point of it to wait this one out. If you look at the big jump up last Friday there was alot of what looks like compression up to liquidity before the major move and the base of this is normally where the smart orders are. Might take us a while...
Rsher01,

I know exactly what you mean about the boredom setting in. I've started to use alertfx.com with an email address tied to my Blackberry, which frees me from the computer. Having said that though - there's only so much gardening one can do!

Hats off for pulling that level. I must admit, I took a look on the H1 and wasn't too keen because of the long pivots and the fact that over the past couple of days supply seemed to have exhausted the original bull move - in the H1 at least. And even on the M5 the move out of the fresh level around your entry point didn't seem that powerful. It just goes to show what I know!
  • #967
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:37am Jul 3, 2012 10:37am
Dunno what it was about that level I just thought it was a great one.
It was a drop base rise level and price went 20 pips up in one 5min bar. The reason why i liked it so much was because it hadnt been revisited and was at the bottom of zone which sent price up a further 120 or so pips.

Then if you look at what price did to get to that level it gave me an insight in the potential to the upside.

Price created 4 or 5 supply zones since last Friday with each one of them being revisited and IMO consumed. Therefore the potential to the upside was to reach 1.2620 which i see it just has (typical with me still looking at the screen).
  • #968
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:42am Jul 3, 2012 10:42am
For a cheeky scalp there is some nice supply here at 1.2624-1.2635. You may get a cheeky scalp down to at least the 1.2610 area. Anything above 35 though negates this theory.
  • #969
  • Jul 3, 2012 10:55am Jul 3, 2012 10:55am
Quoting Rsherl01
Price created 4 or 5 supply zones since last Friday with each one of them being revisited and IMO consumed. Therefore the potential to the upside was to reach 1.2620 which i see it just has (typical with me still looking at the screen).
The consumption thing is interesting but just checking back over my charts I see your point.

Out of interest did you arrive at the SD trading method straight away or was this something that you discovered sometime after starting?
  • #970
  • Jul 3, 2012 11:20am Jul 3, 2012 11:20am
Simond,

God no. I arrived at the "get rich quick scheme" advised to me by a collegeague at first. This is what initially got my attention. I then moved on to "gambling stage" as per say by picking a direction or by trading news releases. 1 day I made 300 pips off of a news realease I was sure I had made it. Can you guess how long it took for me to give it all back and the rest?? I am blessed that I hadnt much money to play with at the time and alot of my time was spent trading micro lots and using demo platforms.

I then moved onto indictors (stochastics/MAs/divergence etc etc) and from here I tried the trend following strategies. With trend following strategies I just thought the risk was too much and markets started to get too choppy. I think they can work along with SD trading just havent honed in on this yet.
I must have spent months backtesting strategies and making up my own ,some of which were profitable but risk reward were all off. I intend to return to these strategies and fine tune them some day along with my SD teachings for a greater R:R.

I was blessed to come across the PIE thread one day by accident and my trading has been steadily improving ever since. Every day you look back on a days Price Action and 90% is explained on the chart. When you see a massive turn on a chart and follow it back to the left you can always tell it occured at a price where a decision has been made previously.

There are some great traders on here that I have followed and continue to follow whose anaylsis opens your eyes to what exactly is happening on a price chart.
I am by no manner or means the finished article infact I am just starting out on the PA/SD road but I know one thing for sure it is miles ahead of any EA, indicator, strategy you can find out there.

My feelings are you get nothing for free in this world. There is no such thing as easy money if there was everyone would be doing it. But if you are willing to spend the hours in front of a screen and have the basics right and continue to fine tune them you will succeed in this game (at least i hope so).

For instance I risked 10 pips on that trade. If I had of got stopped out it wouldnt have cost me a thought as it was a small risk for a large reward. If i got 1 in 5 of these right I would still be profitable.

Just see i picked up another 14 pips there. Today has been a good day!
  • #971
  • Jul 3, 2012 3:47pm Jul 3, 2012 3:47pm
CAD/JPY Daily: Great Supply zone, I just can not see the target...
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  • #972
  • Jul 3, 2012 5:34pm Jul 3, 2012 5:34pm
Quoting Rsherl01
Simond,

God no. I arrived at the "get rich quick scheme" advised to me by a collegeague at first. This is what initially got my attention. I then moved on to "gambling stage" as per say by picking a direction or by trading news releases. 1 day I made 300 pips off of a news realease I was sure I had made it. Can you guess how long it took for me to give it all back and the rest?? I am blessed that I hadnt much money to play with at the time and alot of my time was spent trading micro lots and using demo platforms.

I then moved onto indictors...
Typed in PIE but thread not coming up
  • #973
  • Jul 3, 2012 7:51pm Jul 3, 2012 7:51pm
bodine,

Apologies PIE stands for Price is Everything.. Have a read through that thread and let me know what you think!!
  • #974
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:05pm Jul 3, 2012 8:05pm
Hi Vitall,

not enough risk to reward just my opinion, look at the 4HR time frame for better entery and better reward to risk hope this helps

regards
cashforex
  • #975
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:07pm Jul 3, 2012 8:07pm
Hi Vitall

Have look this one
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  • #976
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:10pm Jul 3, 2012 8:10pm
Hi
here is another potential set up any feedback welcome
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  • #977
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:25pm Jul 3, 2012 8:25pm
Hi Guys,

Here is another one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #978
  • Jul 3, 2012 8:27pm Jul 3, 2012 8:27pm
Hi Guys,

Here is another one
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #979
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:56am Jul 4, 2012 3:56am
Quoting cashforex
Hi Guys,

Here is another one
cashforex,

Some great looking levels.
Quick question, would you enter this trade with a 40 pip SL?
  • #980
  • Jul 4, 2012 3:58am Jul 4, 2012 3:58am
Quoting Rsherl01
Simond,

God no. I arrived at the "get rich quick scheme" advised to me by a collegeague at first. This is what initially got my attention. I then moved on to "gambling stage" as per say by picking a direction or by trading news releases. 1 day I made 300 pips off of a news realease I was sure I had made it. Can you guess how long it took for me to give it all back and the rest?? I am blessed that I hadnt much money to play with at the time and alot of my time was spent trading micro lots and using demo platforms.

I then moved onto indictors...
Hey Rsherl01,

Cheers for sharing this. I'm kind of taking a similar path
myself and have to say that I feel blessed to have "discovered"
Supply/Demand trading while still reasonably early on in
my trading career.

I started out trading a range bar system whose designers
advocate a momentum crossover method. The theory seemed pretty
straightforward but I just couldn't trade it profitably and
it was only once I had discovered Sam Seiden's teachings and
really focussed hard on what he was saying that I begun to
understand why this was.

I'm certainly no expert but I have to say the SD method turned
things around pretty quickly - even if this is just on the
psychological level whilst still trading demo. I'm currently
working on trying to disseminate the levels and choose the best ones,
and feel sure that this is the most challenging bit.

One thing I'm struggling with is deciding which timeframe to trade in.
I'd prefer to stick to D1/H4 but the risk is often just too much
for me.
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