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AUD/USD

  • #48,441
  • Jul 2, 2012 10:12pm Jul 2, 2012 10:12pm
Quoting arcticpolar
that's a very long red line? if it does go down that far i'll definitely be surprised. haha it's actually up to 1.019 around. possible i guess.
It was not to scale. May be longer.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,442
  • Jul 2, 2012 10:23pm Jul 2, 2012 10:23pm
https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-W...e%25202012.jpg

The commercials aka big boys and the specialists remain undecided based on 19 June COT report... better to wait for a while and see the development of a clearer trend. Have not yet analyzed last week's aussie data release.

Once the big boys make big move we know for sure that we want to follow them.
  • #48,443
  • Jul 2, 2012 10:37pm Jul 2, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting tobafx
what's the urgency? you'r pure fundamental..i think
price , speed, range tell a lot of story, emotions who in the market.
  • #48,444
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:13pm Jul 2, 2012 11:13pm
I guess it's going up instead of down
  • #48,445
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:18pm Jul 2, 2012 11:18pm
Quoting arcticpolar
I guess it's going up instead of down
very nice observation
  • #48,446
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:33pm Jul 2, 2012 11:33pm
no rate change... 3.50% which was expected. whether aud/usd is bear or bull... still unknown but with the manufacturing at 27% it's more probable that's a bull rather than a bear. might retrace a bit and go up? or just go up without retracing
  • #48,447
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:45pm Jul 2, 2012 11:45pm
well that didn't do anything.....for news that should have made this pair move one way or the other ...seems pretty uneventful...maybe it's just the quiet before the storm...
  • #48,448
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:46pm Jul 2, 2012 11:46pm
another whipsaw day...
  • #48,449
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:48pm Jul 2, 2012 11:48pm
Quoting petehnm
well that didn't do anything.....for news that should have made this pair move one way or the other ...seems pretty uneventful...maybe it's just the quiet before the storm...
I don't know. I guess people that trade the news would know.
  • #48,450
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:51pm Jul 2, 2012 11:51pm
Quoting DaddyBear
ROAD MAP - NOT TO SCALE

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
I think it's too earlier to judge that it's going to fall like that. if it does, you caught it on the top. hope you grab a lot of green pips!

I'm just curious when it's going to touch 1.0000 again.
  • #48,451
  • Jul 2, 2012 11:56pm Jul 2, 2012 11:56pm
Quoting petehnm
well that didn't do anything.....for news that should have made this pair move one way or the other ...seems pretty uneventful...maybe it's just the quiet before the storm...
After 75 point cut in the last two months no one was forecasting another cut
  • #48,452
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:02am Jul 3, 2012 12:02am
Quoting arcticpolar
I don't know. I guess people that trade the news would know.
I tried trading the news ...most of the times I lost....so I really don't do it anymore....the one thing that is catching my attention though is the 200SMA that's right at the top of the candle on the daily chart...just interesting how so far it's not been able to go through it...although that could change tonight...
  • #48,453
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:10am Jul 3, 2012 12:10am
Quoting petehnm
I tried trading the news ...most of the times I lost....so I really don't do it anymore....the one thing that is catching my attention though is the 200SMA that's right at the top of the candle on the daily chart...just interesting how so far it's not been able to go through it...although that could change tonight...
More material to read, in my case, to give some flavor as to why the pair might be struggling now. I don't know whether FF has already posted either one.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._Decision.html

. . .and for tomorrow (my time, anyway), trading retail sales:
http://www.forexcrunch.com/audusd-tr...etail-sales-5/
  • #48,454
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:20am Jul 3, 2012 12:20am
today is still an up day.

resistance near 1.0270 area is strong, thats all...
ascending support is also detected means buyer waiting for bargain.
another thinking is, asia trader is closing half position to prepare london session. letting "fresh" money to enter. i think most of you too, don't want to buy if price is at 1.03xx when you wake up. (except trader like me --- trend follower maniac )

i think big up swing still have big chance to occurs than down swing.
my sentiment is, if price can break this resistance (means serious buyer there), than another 100 pips jump is very likely to happen.

if price can't break this resistance for enough period (maybe tommorow), i will think to short.
  • #48,455
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:21am Jul 3, 2012 12:21am
Quoting Greenstar
More material to read, in my case, to give some flavor as to why the pair might be struggling now. I don't know whether FF has already posted either one.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._Decision.html

. . .and for tomorrow (my time, anyway), trading retail sales:
http://www.forexcrunch.com/audusd-tr...etail-sales-5/

read the first one. it's 27.3% that's insane. it's not going along with the first news. no point in reading it.
  • #48,456
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:31am Jul 3, 2012 12:31am
Quoting Greenstar
More material to read, in my case, to give some flavor as to why the pair might be struggling now. I don't know whether FF has already posted either one.
http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._Decision.html

. . .and for tomorrow (my time, anyway), trading retail sales:
http://www.forexcrunch.com/audusd-tr...etail-sales-5/

Thanks Greenstar...had already read the top one...second one interesting as well...if we don't break that 1.0285 area with some strength like maybe to the 1.0325 area tonight during London hours I'll bee shorting it at the 1.0285-95 area for sure ....that is if we get back up to the range...it's already getting that stall feel...
  • #48,457
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:39am Jul 3, 2012 12:39am
I'll short it a bit at 1.02900 if it goes up again. hoping for 20 pips take
  • #48,458
  • Jul 3, 2012 12:59am Jul 3, 2012 12:59am
Quoting arcticpolar
read the first one. it's 27.3% that's insane. it's not going along with the first news. no point in reading it.
Agreed. A great number, and still hardly a blip. No change on the rate front is to be expected, but still no green light for longs. I thought maybe people are waiting for the rate announcement then accept the good news, but no take off. it's a funny old game, funnymentals. I'm still long with stop at B.E. Still got my short order pending. I guess we will find out around L.O.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #48,459
  • Jul 3, 2012 1:11am Jul 3, 2012 1:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
YOU'RE HERE! - NOT TO SCALE

Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are not indicators. Please do not apply them to your charts because they won't fit anyway.
I'm not there anymore... it went up. is the picture invalid now?
  • #48,460
  • Jul 3, 2012 1:16am Jul 3, 2012 1:16am
h4 -
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