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The Really Useless Thread

  • #99,641
  • Jul 2, 2012 4:25am Jul 2, 2012 4:25am
Quarterly/Monthly TA euro outlook:

 

  1. Q/M close above 1.262x opened 1.285x with max overshoot to 1.295x for the retrace on risk on. Bulls will need a "miracle" (strong FA) to see beyond thes levels especially with rates in play.
  2. Continuation down to the TA Q Support 1.223x and below to FA key levels depending on the ECB:

    1. 0.25 cut will open yearly Support at 1.162x with intermediate stop at 1.183x.
    2. 0.50 cut will open 1.08x strong breakout point in Y/Q/M charts
    3. A further cut to negative rates will open parity and below.

  3. On the weekly 1.296x last break down marginally open (above collateral damage in the downtrend and need FA) for the pullback on a break of noisy 1.268x resistance. Continuation targets wide open 1.236x and 1.223x. Below lots of air to 1.183x.
  4. Daily in wide consolidation range (HH but LL) and nothing tradable in my books for this week.
  5. Intraday (h4) also in chop zone after last breakout on Friday with bulls obviously with the upper hand. 1.267x line in the sand for a test 1.276x at least and weekly/monthly targets above after.

Q/M/W charts update...good luck all trading the summer....

sisse

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Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #99,642
  • Jul 2, 2012 4:54am Jul 2, 2012 4:54am
makes any sense?
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  • #99,643
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:09am Jul 2, 2012 5:09am
Quoting sisse
Quarterly/Monthly TA euro outlook:
[list][*]Q/M close above 1.262x opened 1.285x with max overshoot to 1.295x for the retrace on risk on. Bulls will need a "miracle" (strong FA) to see beyond thes levels especially with rates in play.[*]Continuation down to the TA Q Support 1.223x and below to FA key levels depending on the ECB:[list=1][*]0.25 cut will open yearly Support at 1.162x with intermediate stop at 1.183x.[*]0.50 cut will open 1.08x strong breakout point in Y/Q/M charts[*]A further cut to negative rates will open parity...
2962/64 is still open and valid. my question is will it go to the also valid 2368 first. and if 2368 is valid, we took the same path that is norm in a bear move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,644
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:24am Jul 2, 2012 5:24am
Quoting gatorinla
2962/64 is still open and valid. my question is will it go to the also valid 2368 first. and if 2368 is valid, we took the same path that is norm in a bear move.
Strongly agree Gator. In my view is that FA factors (the real ones...i.e interest rates) are in play. TA alone the trend is tired and breather is/was in play. That 1.236x should (should had) make the test and 1.295x for a continuation after.

However, I believe we are flirting to break out of the 8 year trading range in the euro. Not out of panic but on real FA reasons so as you prolly know when we break of FA/TA long established boundaries the "normal" retrace/pullbacks gets truncated without forming a double top or bottom (which is the case in the euro until today).

Only ECB doing nothing will delay this and will make the 1.236x first and 1.295x after play...in all other cases I think we are going to test outside of the 8 years range....

We'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #99,645
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:43am Jul 2, 2012 5:43am
Quoting sisse
Strongly agree Gator. In my view is that FA factors (the real ones...i.e interest rates) are in play. TA alone the trend is tired and breather is/was in play. That 1.236x should (should had) make the test and 1.295x for a continuation after.

However, I believe we are flirting to break out of the 8 year trading range in the euro. Not out of panic but on real FA reasons so as you prolly know when we break of FA/TA long established boundaries the "normal" retrace/pullbacks gets truncated without forming a double top or bottom (which is the case...
we have 4h closes above 2622.4 beware of closes below 2622 and if so later 2521. fridays high was calculated using 2622 and 2759... a tough place for bulls should be 2759/67
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,646
  • Jul 2, 2012 5:50am Jul 2, 2012 5:50am
Quoting gatorinla
we have 4h closes above 2622.4 beware of closes below 2622 and if so later 2521. fridays high was calculated using 2622 and 2759... a tough place for bulls should be 2759/67
It is already confirmed in my H4 charts (the move down intraday for today), but is inside bars of a massive intraday breakout bar and above the breakout so suckers play for H4 and above (below I guess is tradable but not for me)...

Agree again with the levels ...have the same...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #99,647
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:02am Jul 2, 2012 6:02am
Quoting sisse
It is already confirmed in my H4 charts (the move down intraday for today), but is inside bars of a massive intraday breakout bar and above the breakout so suckers play for H4 and above (below I guess is tradable but not for me)...

Agree again with the levels ...have the same...

sisse
i am just picking up from Friday. knowing 2368 was still valid.. i was just looking for a place to get a foot in the door. the r/r was there at the level for 2622. then there was a chance to carry it beyond 2622. to resume 2368. and some toward 0.8. if it happens when in a green scalp, that's ok too.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,648
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:02am Jul 2, 2012 6:02am
i might be wrong thats a h4 chart
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  • #99,649
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:05am Jul 2, 2012 6:05am
Quoting gatorinla
i am just picking up from Friday. knowing 2368 was still valid.. i was just looking for a place to get a foot in the door. the r/r was there at the level for 2622. then there was a chance to carry it beyond 2622. to resume 2368. and some toward 0.8. if it happens when in a green scalp, that's ok too.
I see. In my case, I prefer Kill's flow ...but whatever the case, right now I don't like this area in the middle of the morning so I am sidelined in the euro until further price info...

Quoting kill56
i might be wrong thats a h4 chart
sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #99,650
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:07am Jul 2, 2012 6:07am
greece who?
Iceland, who too.
these people got reamed in the crash. they still pay for it. now they need the step child.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,651
  • Edited 6:21am Jul 2, 2012 6:09am | Edited 6:21am
Quoting kill56
i might be wrong thats a h4 chart
if we break 2600 we are going to see 2550,

and as long holds [2600], 2700 is next..
  • #99,652
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:19am Jul 2, 2012 6:19am
Quoting sisse
I see. In my case, I prefer Kill's flow ...but whatever the case, right now I don't like this area in the middle of the morning so I am sidelined in the euro until further price info...



sisse
i dont know bro weekly looks ogly , might revisit 2520's then up move around 13000's after that a big dump to below 12000

flat for now across the board, safe than sorry
  • #99,653
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:25am Jul 2, 2012 6:25am
Quoting Piters
if we break 2600 we are going to see 2550,

and as long holds [2600], 2700 is next..
yop levles are close , we mostly play between WH3 and WL3
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  • #99,654
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:27am Jul 2, 2012 6:27am
last h closed below London open. it may be hinting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,655
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:31am Jul 2, 2012 6:31am
it would be hard to pass 2673 to 2521 in a single candle today. with atr.. unless we use Fridays as a guide
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,656
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:37am Jul 2, 2012 6:37am
Quoting gatorinla
it would be hard to pass 2673 to 2521 in a single candle today. with atr.. unless we use Fridays as a guide
i dont know the settings on my signal bars (indi default setting)to get the average. mine is about 159 today.. using it .. i come up with 2517. that would be enough for a 2521 candle close.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,657
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:49am Jul 2, 2012 6:49am
Quoting gatorinla
.
?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,658
  • Jul 2, 2012 6:57am Jul 2, 2012 6:57am
Quoting gatorinla
i dont know the settings on my signal bars (indi default setting)to get the average. mine is about 159 today.. using it .. i come up with 2517. that would be enough for a 2521 candle close.
2328/2766 with mid support + levels.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,659
  • Jul 2, 2012 7:23am Jul 2, 2012 7:23am
Quoting gatorinla
still can target 2260 but ite less likely to get this entry. we have another possible short at 2423/39...if it goes above 2441 i would not take the setup above. going over 2441 makes the setup above less likely to happen so stops need to be at b.e. early or don't even take the trade. since over 2441 it may want 2552.
if you short it near 2439 stops above 2441 should be ok+ spread. the spread is wider in this pair.. we may never c 2439, but norm pa suggest a bounce to 2382.. atm at 2340... i wound not long it. i would wait to short if it got there....
current pa invalidated this one. but it also made the original still valid. so we can still short near 25xx as long as 2260 is untouched.. it looks unlikely 2260 will not be hit soon. low atm 2281. i could of taken this Friday and made money. its just the r/r is so much better with a pullback.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #99,660
  • Jul 2, 2012 7:29am Jul 2, 2012 7:29am
Quoting pico_zeh
Good day bastards!

Today i am expecting EURO to drop the rest of day. You can try to short it during the next upward move, when it stop to cut the high for at least 30 minutes...

Best regards,
Pico.
Now we see their intention, the drop might continue during US Session...

Best regards,
Pico.
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