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AUD/USD

  • #48,301
  • Jul 1, 2012 4:12am Jul 1, 2012 4:12am
Quoting stulic
Just my two cents, China is not in a recession. Greece is in a recession. China's economy is expanding by a rate of around 8% per year.
A recession means a country's economy is contracting, the annual percentage GDP growth compared to previous year is negative, China wont see a recession in your lifetime.
China's growth rate is slowing down, that doesn't make it a recession or a contraction, 8% growth annually is still very healthy growth and Australia is profiting from it in a big freaking way...
this man is right, just because gdp isnt sky rocketing doesnt mean its in recession, just slowing. everything is cyclic
  • #48,302
  • Jul 1, 2012 4:24am Jul 1, 2012 4:24am
up or down
  • #48,303
  • Jul 1, 2012 4:41am Jul 1, 2012 4:41am
Quoting Silencer
up or down
down dawg
  • #48,304
  • Jul 1, 2012 5:33am Jul 1, 2012 5:33am
Quoting redbox
lowering rate means stimulate economy.
it means PBOC foresee 8% is not enough to keep the wheel turning.
it not delaying high level growth for future, they need it now.
last year, house price is being cut very deeply by govt. ---> do you think they need to cut house price it amazing growth (about 10%) economy?
The government might be trying to prevent a housing crisis. The prices are going up too fast. Nothing a country can do to change things for the now. It's to restore confidence for the future. Even stimulus takes time to be injected. Rates cuts need at least a day to be in effect and for banks to change their rates I'm not sure how long. Probably a day too. A rate change might be testing the data for each monthly and adjustments are made accordingly. Even if I need money... I can't really just instantly get it now. Imagine on a such a bigger scale. 0.25% for the US rate is it stimulating economy? Not really... The banks are borrowing at low rates only to make more gambling bets. Probably not much of that money is injected in back to the people. Banks are probably re-lending to the government for money. People houses are being foreclosed. CDS are still being bought. Still good if everything fails. Banks are the money maker... Not the country or the people. Low rates doesn't change much if the problem doesn't exist in the rates or loan problem

Same as giving money without fixing the problem in Greece. The austherity measures might be targeting the wrong area. Money being injected might be incorrectly used and with that said... It like blowing air into a balloon with a lot of holes.
  • #48,305
  • Jul 1, 2012 7:54am Jul 1, 2012 7:54am
Quoting stulic
Just my two cents, China is not in a recession. Greece is in a recession. China's economy is expanding by a rate of around 8% per year.
A recession means a country's economy is contracting, the annual percentage GDP growth compared to previous year is negative, China wont see a recession in your lifetime.
China's growth rate is slowing down, that doesn't make it a recession or a contraction, 8% growth annually is still very healthy growth and Australia is profiting from it in a big freaking way...
My two cents as well. I would not bet on such a thinking of "China wont see a recession in your lifetime." based on my longtime study of China.

1. It depends on how old a person is and the life expectancy is in his country.
2. China is not a very stable political entity. Who would anticipate the sudden collapse of Soviet Union of Russia in 1990s? CCP could be the next one on the list. Dynasty change, not regime change, is a norm in China's 5000 years history.
3. Issues like never-ending social unrest, serious gender population imbalance, CCP officials' mass corruption and etc. will bring down this second largest economy sooner or later in our lifetime, [It depends on how old you are.]
4. and more.....

An economy built on the authoritarian rule will not keep going and going indefinitely. IMHO
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,306
  • Edited 8:20am Jul 1, 2012 8:08am | Edited 8:20am
Quoting stulic
Growth of 8% per year means demand for Australian resources is not doubling, not quadrupling but quintupling every year, it's literally physically impossible to keep up with the demand and build the infrastructure needed to be able to start digging out more and more coal and iron ore in Australia, and trust me there's still heaps of it left.
Even if China grew by 4% per year all of the available resources dug up in Australia would be sold out before leaving the ground, a growth rate of 8% is just insane.
FYI. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...oal_production

As of 2010, China was the top coal production nation (48.30%) and Australia was No. 4 (6.30%). China imported coal when its economy was expanding. When its economy is contracting, not recession, the domestic coal production will be sufficient. The coal import may drop significantly even China still grew 4% per year. IMHO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,307
  • Jul 1, 2012 8:23am Jul 1, 2012 8:23am
Quoting DaddyBear
My two cents as well. I would not bet on such a thinking of "China wont see a recession in your lifetime." based on my longtime study of China.

1. It depends on how old a person is and the life expectancy is in his country.
2. China is not a very stable political entity. Who would anticipate the sudden collapse of Soviet Union of Russia in 1990s? CCP could be the next one on the list. Dynasty change, not regime change, is a norm in China's 5000 years history.
3. Issues like never-ending social unrest, serious gender population imbalance,...
An economy built on capitalist rule will not keep going and going indefinitely. Food for thought.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,308
  • Jul 1, 2012 8:29am Jul 1, 2012 8:29am
Quoting stulic
An economy built on capitalist rule will not keep going and going indefinitely. Food for thought.
The problem is that China is both Communism and Capitalism systems now. So based on our views, China will not keep going and going indefinitely either way.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,309
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:06am Jul 1, 2012 9:06am
Quoting DaddyBear
The problem is that China is both Communism and Capitalism systems now. So based on our views, China will not keep going and going indefinitely either way.
China June Official PMI Hits 7 Month Lows
"It was the lowest reading since November, and economists expect things to worsen."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48030826

The actual number could be worse. IMO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,310
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:32am Jul 1, 2012 9:32am
Quoting DaddyBear
China June Official PMI Hits 7 Month Lows
"It was the lowest reading since November, and economists expect things to worsen."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48030826

The actual number could be worse. IMO.
Yuan Posts Biggest Ever Quarterly Fall Versus Dollar

"China's spot yuan posted its largest quarterly decline against the dollar on record in April-June as the Chinese economy slowed and Europe's festering debt crisis pushed the U.S. currency higher."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/48009337
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,311
  • Jul 1, 2012 9:37am Jul 1, 2012 9:37am
Quoting arcticpolar
The government might be trying to prevent a housing crisis. The prices are going up too fast. Nothing a country can do to change things for the now.
its the govt cause housing bubble at china.

for china people (not govt) who want to think, here is a little clue:

price of housing is not skyrocketing because of leverage, but because of lack of trustworthy investment place, elder at china who have money will hedge (not investing) their asset at property. they too can't invest in their kid and their grandchild because one child policy make 4 of them will only have 1 grandchild, this is insane if they depend on their successor... they must able to save and sustain by their self later. losing their hard work value through depreciation of property is still can be tolerate by them. they not buy house to invest. they do it to H.E.D.G.E

Quote
It's to restore confidence for the future. Even stimulus takes time to be injected. Rates cuts need at least a day to be in effect and for banks to change their rates I'm not sure how long. Probably a day too. A rate change might be testing the data for each monthly and adjustments are made accordingly. Even if I need money... I can't really just instantly get it now. Imagine on a such a bigger scale. 0.25% for the US rate is it stimulating economy? Not really... The banks are borrowing at low rates only to make more gambling bets. Probably not...

if growth 8% is amazing, what confidence you want to restore?
you need to restore if only now you don't have confidence. period.

Quote
Same as giving money without fixing the problem in Greece. The austherity measures might be targeting the wrong area. Money being injected might be incorrectly used and with that said... It like blowing air into a balloon with a lot of holes.

china people is hard working, its completely different matter. for me, china people deserve better than this.

i'm affraid you are govt guy
  • #48,312
  • Jul 1, 2012 10:41am Jul 1, 2012 10:41am
OK guys, would it be Spain or Italy for the Euro 2012
  • #48,313
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:18am Jul 1, 2012 11:18am
Hi peeps,
I just started trading few months ago, any suggestion for new trader?
  • #48,314
  • Jul 1, 2012 11:55am Jul 1, 2012 11:55am
Quoting redbox
its the govt cause housing bubble at china.

if growth 8% is amazing, what confidence you want to restore?
you need to restore if only now you don't have confidence. period.

i'm affraid you are govt guy
Haha I don't think govt is causing a housing bubble by containing the price.

because it's dropped from 10% to 9% then to 8% haha. even if it's high it's a worry because it's going down.

I wish I'm a govt guy... you mean in China? then I wouldn't need to play forex. I would be pretty wealthy or rich by now. Ha..
  • #48,315
  • Edited 2:22pm Jul 1, 2012 2:11pm | Edited 2:22pm
Quoting 1stECN
AUDUSD going south on market open. Our target is 1.0184
Is there a 2ndECN ?
 Attention:
DaddyBear's cartoons are merely the reflections of members' debates or messages in this forum. Please do not take them personally or seriously.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,316
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:36pm Jul 1, 2012 2:36pm
1.0260
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #48,317
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:49pm Jul 1, 2012 2:49pm
Quoting irfandbl
OK guys, would it be Spain or Italy for the Euro 2012
whats so exciting about soccer?
  • #48,318
  • Jul 1, 2012 3:06pm Jul 1, 2012 3:06pm
Quoting Silencer
whats so exciting about soccer?
Well, if you don't like the sport, you can bet money on the winner like in forex
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #48,319
  • Edited 4:45pm Jul 1, 2012 4:33pm | Edited 4:45pm
Looks like the double Fibonacci Numbers are holding up bull's advance like a stonewall so far. However, it still has a long way to go to the 1.0184 target of 1stECN and Co. May be by the time of London Open, we will see this mysterious number coming in sight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD-062912.JPG Size: 80 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,320
  • Jul 1, 2012 8:39pm Jul 1, 2012 8:39pm
Quoting Esoteric
Hi peeps,
I just started trading few months ago, any suggestion for new trader?
Welcome, Esoteric. Please see my previous post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post5792987.
daddybearforex. com
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