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AUD/USD

  • #48,281
  • Jun 30, 2012 6:42pm Jun 30, 2012 6:42pm
I've been following Spivak and daily fx team on stocktwits for a while now, though they've been wrong recently with the recent up surge.

They've all been heavily short the risk currencies for a while now. Spivak was short audcad at the 1.0335, I think this got stopped out @ 1.043. Entered another short with the eurusd @ 1.2595. Saettele was short audusd at 10040, stopped out @ 10150. Entered another short @ 1.025. Michael Boutros had a bunch of audusd shorts stopped out.
  • #48,282
  • Jun 30, 2012 6:45pm Jun 30, 2012 6:45pm
Quoting mrbandwidth
CNY Manufacturing PMI

Actual Forecast Previous
50.2 49.9 50.4
Looks like China slowdown story was abit exaggerated. Reckon it bottomed out in may @ 48.1.
  • #48,283
  • Jun 30, 2012 6:52pm Jun 30, 2012 6:52pm
Quoting Iro
I've been following Spivak and daily fx team on stocktwits for a while now, though they've been wrong recently with the recent up surge.

They've all been heavily short the risk currencies for a while now. Spivak was short audcad at the 1.0335, I think this got stopped out @ 1.043. Entered another short with the eurusd @ 1.2595. Saettele was short audusd at 10040, stopped out @ 10150. Entered another short @ 1.025. Michael Boutros had a bunch of audusd shorts stopped out.
This reminds me the story "Wolf's Coming". Finally, the wolf really showed up.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,284
  • Jun 30, 2012 7:07pm Jun 30, 2012 7:07pm
Quoting Iro
Looks like China slowdown story was abit exaggerated. Reckon it bottomed out in may @ 48.1.
FYI. Re: China falsifying economic statistics to disguise true depth of troubles

http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/china/38073-china-falsifying-economic-statistics-disguise-true-depth-troubles-economists-3.html

Use this info as second opinion.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,285
  • Jun 30, 2012 7:44pm Jun 30, 2012 7:44pm
I wouldn't believe anything that comes out the cesspool of corruption know as India. They should have even better economic growth than China considering the amount of western support they receive and their language advantage.

But instead of investing in infrastructure and education, the politicians just use the money to line their pockets.
  • #48,286
  • Jun 30, 2012 8:00pm Jun 30, 2012 8:00pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Now, you use the same indicator with the same parameters on two TFs. As a papa, I would not ask my kid to use my gloves to do anything. The kids should use the gloves of their sizes.
No dad, I didn't use same parameters on two TF's (H1 dan D1), hence I said this earlier

Quoting irfandbl
Here's my H1 chart, the yellow MA and bands are exactly the same yellow MA and bands as the one in my daily chart, I just use different values to synchronize between H1 and Daily.
So an MA5 (blue) in the daily chart is an MA120 (blue) in the hourly chart, MA20 daily (yellow) = MA480 hourly (yellow)
  • #48,287
  • Jun 30, 2012 9:07pm Jun 30, 2012 9:07pm
Quoting irfandbl
No dad, I didn't use same parameters on two TF's (H1 dan D1), hence I said this earlier

So an MA5 (blue) in the daily chart is an MA120 (blue) in the hourly chart, MA20 daily (yellow) = MA480 hourly (yellow)
Sorry for overlooking a portion of your message. The reason why I had that wrong-size impression was because something was not adjusted proportionally. While increasing MA from 20 to 480 to reflect the scale change of TF, you still kept the same parameters. "For the bollinger bands I'm using the same value as the same colored MA's (Weighted close HLCC/4 as well), deviation 1 and deviation 2"

I have designed and tested thousands custom indicators since 2008. According to my experience, the parameters must be increased as well to reflect the same fact of the PA. I don't think you have to change deviation 1 and deviation 2 to deviation 24 and deviation 48 respectively. But, using deviation 1 and deviation 2 in a H1 chart and expecting same result as they are in a daily chart will only get a distortion in H1 chart.

As I mentioned in previous post, a H1 chart is a blow-up of a daily chart. You may test some numbers between 1 and 24 as multiplier factors to see which one reflects the closest condition.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,288
  • Jun 30, 2012 9:22pm Jun 30, 2012 9:22pm
Quoting Iro
I wouldn't believe anything that comes out the cesspool of corruption know as India. They should have even better economic growth than China considering the amount of western support they receive and their language advantage.

But instead of investing in infrastructure and education, the politicians just use the money to line their pockets.
I am not familiar with India; therefore, I have no comment on your feedback. China was our focal point not India. I have never believed China's data. Do you believe an authoritarian government would release anything reliable? This year is particularly critical due to the pending power transfer. Everything must be dressed up to prevent social unrests from happening. China is not too far away from N. Korea whether it is the distance or the mindset.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,289
  • Jun 30, 2012 9:50pm Jun 30, 2012 9:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I don't think you have to change deviation 1 and deviation 2 to deviation 24 and deviation 48 respectively. But, using deviation 1 and deviation 2 in a H1 chart and expecting same result as they are in a daily chart will only get a distortion in H1 chart.

As I mentioned in previous post, a H1 chart is a blow-up of a daily chart. You may test some numbers between 1 and 24 as multiplier factors to see which one reflects the closest condition.
I'm not changing the deviation value, all I'm using is deviation 1 and 2, the only part that I adjust/convert is the period. The difference of values between bollingers in H1 and D1 are not too significant, around 10 pips, I think I'm fine with that. But then again, maybe you're right, it'll only get a distortion in H1 chart. Thanks for the heads up dad
  • #48,290
  • Jun 30, 2012 10:23pm Jun 30, 2012 10:23pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I am not familiar with India; therefore, I have no comment on your feedback. China was our focal point not India. I have never believed China's data. Do you believe an authoritarian government would release anything reliable? This year is particularly critical due to the pending power transfer. Everything must be dressed up to prevent social unrests from happening. China is not too far away from N. Korea whether it is the distance or the mindset.
then what happen if china in recession? they are in already anyway (from double digit growth 11% to single digit 8.1%).

is china growth correlated with australia?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/aust...-growth-annual
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

be aware, market don't care your feel
  • #48,291
  • Jun 30, 2012 10:56pm Jun 30, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting redbox
then what happen if china in recession? they are in already anyway (from double digit growth 11% to single digit 8.1%).

is china growth correlated with australia?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/aust...-growth-annual
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

be aware, market don't care your feel
RB, thanks for your reminder. I do know personal feel has no weight in the market. My message was that China's data is not reliable. This issue was reported by NY Times recently.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,292
  • Jun 30, 2012 11:07pm Jun 30, 2012 11:07pm
oh ok,
i thought people correlating china data with riskier asset/currency like aud
  • #48,293
  • Jul 1, 2012 12:19am Jul 1, 2012 12:19am
Quoting redbox
then what happen if china in recession? they are in already anyway (from double digit growth 11% to single digit 8.1%).

is china growth correlated with australia?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/aust...-growth-annual
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-growth-annual

be aware, market don't care your feel
Just my two cents, China is not in a recession. Greece is in a recession. China's economy is expanding by a rate of around 8% per year.
A recession means a country's economy is contracting, the annual percentage GDP growth compared to previous year is negative, China wont see a recession in your lifetime.
China's growth rate is slowing down, that doesn't make it a recession or a contraction, 8% growth annually is still very healthy growth and Australia is profiting from it in a big freaking way...
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,294
  • Jul 1, 2012 12:42am Jul 1, 2012 12:42am
Quoting stulic
Just my two cents, China is not in a recession. Greece is in a recession. China's economy is expanding by a rate of around 8% per year.
A recession means a country's economy is contracting, the annual percentage GDP growth compared to previous year is negative, China wont see a recession in your lifetime.
China's growth rate is slowing down, that doesn't make it a recession or a contraction, 8% growth annually is still very healthy growth and Australia is profiting from it in a big freaking way...
yes, if you use 0 (zero)% is a pivotal point.

why you think PBOC lower its rate if growing 8% is still great?
China number is an exceptional.
  • #48,295
  • Jul 1, 2012 12:57am Jul 1, 2012 12:57am
Quoting redbox
yes, if you use 0 (zero)% is a pivotal point.

why you think PBOC lower its rate if growing 8% is still great?
China number is an exceptional.
Growth of 8% per year means demand for Australian resources is not doubling, not quadrupling but quintupling every year, it's literally physically impossible to keep up with the demand and build the infrastructure needed to be able to start digging out more and more coal and iron ore in Australia, and trust me there's still heaps of it left.
Even if China grew by 4% per year all of the available resources dug up in Australia would be sold out before leaving the ground, a growth rate of 8% is just insane.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,296
  • Jul 1, 2012 12:58am Jul 1, 2012 12:58am
Quoting redbox
yes, if you use 0 (zero)% is a pivotal point.

why you think PBOC lower its rate if growing 8% is still great?
China number is an exceptional.
It's to keep it at a high level for the future. You get a 98 on a test you do not stop studying for the next test because you had a 98 before. 8% is good... You can't really say 8% isn't good because they lowered the rates...
Just preventative measures to keep the GDP growth going good or great.
  • #48,297
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:12am Jul 1, 2012 1:12am
Quoting stulic
Growth of 8% per year means demand for Australian resources is not doubling, not quadrupling but quintupling every year, it's literally physically impossible to keep up with the demand and build the infrastructure needed to be able to start digging out more and more coal and iron ore in Australia, and trust me there's still heaps of it left.
Even if China grew by 4% per year all of the available resources dug up in Australia would be sold out before leaving the ground, a growth rate of 8% is just insane.
Just to clarify, I'm not mistaking 8% growth rate with 800% growth rate, you have to look at the bigger picture and understand the impact 8% growth in a country of almost 2 billion people has on a tiny resource rich Australia with only 25 million people.

I traveled across to the west coast recently visiting family in Perth and could see it with my own eyes.

The mining companies are swimming in cash and are screaming for work force, they can't even meet 25% of all the demand coming from China and to some lesser extent from India. Papers are chockers with job ads pretty much all associated with mining and Perth is running out of qualified welders, truck drivers and panel beaters because everybody left to work for double the money in the mines.
It's ridiculous and it's hurting a lot of other parts of Australian economy.

All I'm saying, Australia is well placed to keep benefiting from a healthy growth in Asia and this is not going to change at least for a generation to come.
Don't get mad, get even!
  • #48,298
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:23am Jul 1, 2012 1:23am
Inserted Video



if its 8% insane, why PBOC --- The People's Bank of China, lower its rate?

its not mean AUD will down, i too bullish on AUD because other reason (i put bearish sentiment for 2 weeks, and cannot edit it now...)

about coal, i think China is the one depends on Australia & Indonesia coal, they all sold in multiyears agreement. if both not selling coal to there, hongkong electricity will shut down >
  • #48,299
  • Jul 1, 2012 1:35am Jul 1, 2012 1:35am
Quoting redbox
about coal, i think China is the one depends on Australia & Indonesia coal, they all sold in multiyears agreement. if both not selling coal to there, hongkong electricity will shut down >
This condition is about to change sooner or later, our government has made some changes to its policies regarding exporting coal such as the rise of taxes for coal exporters which has caused most of Indonesia's mining company stocks to plunge recently. This was done in order to increase the coal selling to local users. I'm guessing that China would depend solely on Australia in the future in terms of coal. So I guess it would be better news for Australia.
  • #48,300
  • Jul 1, 2012 2:06am Jul 1, 2012 2:06am
Quoting arcticpolar
It's to keep it at a high level for the future. You get a 98 on a test you do not stop studying for the next test because you had a 98 before. 8% is good... You can't really say 8% isn't good because they lowered the rates...
Just preventative measures to keep the GDP growth going good or great.
lowering rate means stimulate economy.
it means PBOC foresee 8% is not enough to keep the wheel turning.
it not delaying high level growth for future, they need it now.
last year, house price is being cut very deeply by govt. ---> do you think they need to cut house price it amazing growth (about 10%) economy?
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