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AUD/USD

  • #48,261
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:14pm Jun 30, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting arcticpolar
right now, it's saying loudly it's a bull trend. And it seems to be only possible that it might fall a little bit.
  • #48,262
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:16pm Jun 30, 2012 12:16pm
Quoting DaddyBear
It was simply because he was attending European Summit and sat next to Chancellor Angela Merkel.
Lol nice sketch. That bear looks like he's in love, and who could blame him. Angela Merkel is a hottie
  • #48,263
  • Edited 12:30pm Jun 30, 2012 12:19pm | Edited 12:30pm
Quoting Aldente
Lol nice sketch. That bear looks like he's in love, and who could blame him. Angela Merkel is a hottie
Thanks, Aldente. However, DaddyBear cannot comment on this matter because he was not authorized to speak to the public.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,264
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:25pm Jun 30, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Aldente
Lol nice sketch. That bear looks like he's in love, and who could blame him. Angela Merkel is a hottie
Hottie....Lol Grandma...
  • #48,265
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:33pm Jun 30, 2012 12:33pm
nice sketches papa

btw, here's my daily chart, I think we should watch out for 1.0285 (red MA) by the time we get there


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.gif Size: 26 KB



and I still have my eyes on 1.0328

but I think 1.0249 has capped this pair on Friday so a retracement/pullback or whatever we name it is possible during monday...time will tell

those are my probabilities if this thing goes up, I don't have any clues yet on numbers to watch when it goes south
  • #48,266
  • Edited 1:10pm Jun 30, 2012 12:55pm | Edited 1:10pm
Quoting irfandbl
nice sketches papa

btw, here's my daily chart, I think we should watch out for 1.0285 (red MA) by the time we get there


Attachment


and here are some numbers to watch as well in case this thing goes north
1.0328
1.0349

but I think 1.0249 has capped this pair on Friday so a retracement/pullback or whatever we name it is possible during monday...time will tell

those are my probabilities if this thing goes up, I don't have any clues yet on numbers to watch when it goes south
irfandbl, good morning to you in Indonesia.

You have legitimate and sound reasons. I have no doubts about your right to believe so.

However, if you look into your chart with a magnifier, you would see the following facts:

1. What if you use the yellow line instead of the red one?
2. Your envelope indicates it has touched the upper limit.
3. It touched the lower limit on 06/01/12. We all witnessed what had happened after that.

When a rubber band is stretched to the yielding point, some people still believe that it will be stretched more and more. I cannot comment on their thinking. But, I do know one thing that the market does act like a boomerang.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,267
  • Jun 30, 2012 12:58pm Jun 30, 2012 12:58pm
Quoting DaddyBear
irfandbl, good morning for you in Indonesia.

You have legitimate and sound reasons. I have no doubts about your right to believe so.

However, if you look into your chart with a magnifier, you would see the following facts:

1. What if you use the yellow line instead of the red one?
2. Your envelope indicates it has touched the upper limit.
3. It touched the lower limit on 06/01/12. We all witnessed what had happened after that.

When a rubber band is stretched to the yielding point, some people still believe that it will be stretched more and...
By the way, what SMA is that yellow line? What parameter do you use for the envelope?
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,268
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:27pm Jun 30, 2012 1:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
irfandbl, good morning to you in Indonesia.

You have legitimate and sound reasons. I have no doubts about your right to believe so.

However, if you look into your chart with a magnifier, you would see the following facts:

1. What if you use the yellow line instead of the red one?
2. Your envelope indicates it has touched the upper limit.
3. It touched the lower limit on 06/01/12. We all witnessed what had happened after that.

When a rubber band is stretched to the yielding point, some people still believe that it will be stretched...
The daily gets me confused. A divergence is saying it's going to go down. It has yet to happen. The run up today is signalling a strong bull trend. It's probably a false divergence? Are you saying the daily is saying it will fall? My daily is saying that too. But all the other charts are not give that signal.
  • #48,269
  • Edited 1:50pm Jun 30, 2012 1:30pm | Edited 1:50pm
Quoting DaddyBear
irfandbl, good morning for you in Indonesia.

You have legitimate and sound reasons. I have no doubts about your right to believe so.

However, if you look into your chart with a magnifier, you would see the following facts:

1. What if you use the yellow line instead of the red one?
2. Your envelope indicates it has touched the upper limit.
3. It touched the lower limit on 06/01/12. We all witnessed what had happened after that.

When a rubber band is stretched to the yielding point, some people still believe that it will be stretched more and...
good afternoon dad (have no clue which U.S timezone are you in)

I know, some people believe that it will be stretched more and more, even sometimes it pops out from the rubber band for a few hundred pips.
But, I'm not taking any chances on going long at this point before it makes any sufficient retraces, I would just have to wait and see.
Maybe I would short this thing on Monday when it touches 1.0285 without any sufficient retraces/pullbacks from the Friday high.

Here's my H1 chart, the yellow MA and bands are exactly the same yellow MA and bands as the one in my daily chart, I just use different values to synchronize between H1 and Daily. I made some marks on it where the price pops up from the second upper yellow band and keeps going up for 185 pips without the need of re-entering the upper yellow band. When that happens, I use the red MA and bands on my H1 chart (MA24, 24 represents 24 hours in a day) as my map.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD.gif Size: 23 KB


and also I have some numbers to watch which I calculate based on stochastic to make me think that I'm not going the wrong way
  • #48,270
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:37pm Jun 30, 2012 1:37pm
Quoting DaddyBear
By the way, what SMA is that yellow line? What parameter do you use for the envelope?
For the Daily chart :
The yellow line is SMA20 Weighted Close (HLCC/4), the number 20 represents 20 days in a month when people trade. Because there are 5 days in a week and 4 weeks in a month, so that's 5 x 4
The blue line is SMA5 Weighted Close (HLCC/4), the number 5 represents 5 days in a week when people trade.
While the red line is SMA240. Which represents the number of days people trade in a year. 240 = (20 x 12 = a year)
  • #48,271
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:42pm Jun 30, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting arcticpolar
The daily gets me confused. A divergence is saying it's going to go down. It has yet to happen. The run up today is signalling a strong bull trend. It's probably a false divergence? Are you saying the daily is saying it will fall? My daily is saying that too. But all the other charts are not give that signal.
My daily and H1 RSI(5) are showing divergences as well, that's why if this thing keeps going to 1.0285 without a sufficient retrace, consolidation or whatever, there's a high probability that it would stall.
But who knows? Anything could happen, we can only predict things, the rest are up to the market
  • #48,272
  • Jun 30, 2012 1:46pm Jun 30, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What parameter do you use for the envelope?
For the bollinger bands I'm using the same value as the same colored MA's (Weighted close HLCC/4 as well), deviation 1 and deviation 2
  • #48,273
  • Edited 9:21pm Jun 30, 2012 3:14pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting irfandbl
good afternoon dad (have no clue which U.S timezone are you in)

I know, some people believe that it will be stretched more and more, even sometimes it pops out from the rubber band for a few hundred pips.
But, I'm not taking any chances on going long at this point before it makes any sufficient retraces, I would just have to wait and see.
Maybe I would short this thing on Monday when it touches 1.0285 without any sufficient retraces/pullbacks from the Friday high.

Here's my H1 chart, the yellow MA and bands are exactly the same yellow MA and...

FYI, I am in the US EST zone.
I see TFs somewhat differently. A small TF is a blow-up of a larger TF. To me, there is no conflicts between two TFs.

Now, you use the same indicator with the same parameters on two TFs. As a papa, I would not ask my kid to use my gloves to do anything. The kids should use the gloves of their sizes.

After looking into probability for couple days, I have come up with some ideas. Three are high probability and low probability. At certain points, there may be some uncertainty in my mind. It's the time to apply the test of probability. On the other hand, at some points, if there seems no room for probability, I would go for certainty. IMHO.

Quoting arcticpolar
The daily gets me confused. A divergence is saying it's going to go down. It has yet to happen. The run up today is signalling a strong bull trend. It's probably a false divergence? Are you saying the daily is saying it will fall? My daily is saying that too. But all the other charts are not give that signal.
I did not say that the daily is saying it will fall or reverse. What I see is that a rubber band is reaching its yielding point. Yes, it can be stretched more. But, for how much more? When the snow is falling, you would not think it is Summer.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,274
  • Jun 30, 2012 3:18pm Jun 30, 2012 3:18pm
Quoting irfandbl
For the bollinger bands I'm using the same value as the same colored MA's (Weighted close HLCC/4 as well), deviation 1 and deviation 2
I think the red line is more suitable for longer term trading purpose. For daytrading, the yellow line may be more useful. IMHO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,275
  • Jun 30, 2012 3:41pm Jun 30, 2012 3:41pm
Moment of truth?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: moment of truth.jpg Size: 131 KB
  • #48,276
  • Jun 30, 2012 4:07pm Jun 30, 2012 4:07pm
Quoting Paulenok
Moment of truth?

Attachment
I see your point. Your chart is really inspiring. The daily and weekly pivots are pretty close. It has some meaning to me. Is it feasible the monthly pivot will be tested next week?

The agreement of European Summit was not a signed document. If Germany backs off from some of this agreement, the market may be in another mood. Even this PROBABILITY is low, how long can this European Euphoria last after ECB's rate cut?
daddybearforex. com
  • #48,277
  • Jun 30, 2012 4:39pm Jun 30, 2012 4:39pm
with the daily DTL broken (origin 2.29.12) and Friday's burst. Aussie may have the power to retest the resistance it fell from at 1.0820 area.

We will see how the news fairs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUD j3112.GIF Size: 29 KB
XAU-XAG/USD_Gold n Silver Trader's Thread = Technicals, Fundamentals & News
  • #48,278
  • Jun 30, 2012 7:57pm Jun 30, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting XTrade
with the daily DTL broken (origin 2.29.12) and Friday's burst. Aussie may have the power to retest the resistance it fell from at 1.0820 area.

We will see how the news fairs.
we never had a clear break above 1.0240, until this number becomes irrelevant, we will not see 1.08 anytime soon, a test of 1.012 could be on the cards too.
  • #48,279
  • Jun 30, 2012 8:11pm Jun 30, 2012 8:11pm
CNY Manufacturing PMI

Actual Forecast Previous
50.2 49.9 50.4
Use me as a contrarian indicator
  • #48,280
  • Jun 30, 2012 8:13pm Jun 30, 2012 8:13pm
Quoting jayjb
we never had a clear break above 1.0240, until this number becomes irrelevant, we will not see 1.08 anytime soon, a test of 1.012 could be on the cards too.
Jayjb, FYI, the following link is an analysis of Aussie by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist, Daily FX.

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundame..._Cut_Risk.html
daddybearforex. com
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