Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

PREVIOUS CHART BELOW:
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1340847095


CURRENT CHART BELOW:

UPDATE:

the bounce from that confluence zone was strong and violent, wasnt it? ENOUGH SAID:

ditto bro 1.2665..........cuts coming

Here some readings on ecb take next week some are expecting rate cut of 25 bps some 50 bps.


Alos some other pdfs for the 1s who like myslef i am not holding much i shorted eu here 1.2650 for some retrace but liking bit higher before the rate cut.


http://f.doctm.com/246e3013/FXWeekly2806.pdf
http://f.doctm.com/ee0ce3c2/0628MM.pdf
http://f.doctm.com/19358ecd/citi.pdf


Any way gona sign off for a while from forexfactory interverse to much with my own trading sometimes. Maybe return back in future or pop by sometimes will see. Currently not holding much only crude oil longs at the moment for longerterm play will it work out well will see.http://f.doctm.com/19358ecd/citi.pdf

Anyway wish ya all best was fun time around here .

Some off you i will speak through skype sometimes other 1s

Adios wish ya all best.

this is a reply/continuation of the discussion between roar roar 53 and i.

I posted this.

He replied.

I responded.

He elaborated.

In my last post i talked about my thought process with regards to fundamental analysis.....in this post, i will write about my thought process with regards to technical analysis.....

My take on technical analysis...(i already posted this somewhere...i will have to paste/modify)

With regards to models, testing, crossreferencing, etc...as it pertains to technical analysis....

Classic technical patterns do not need to be tested before you can assume them to be valid. They are all valid. It is just a matter of knowing when and where. Yes, you are reading that correctly. why then, you may ask, do they fail? ANS: You are simply trading them incorrectly. You cannot use a scalpel to do the job of a hammer. What do i mean?

Let us take breakouts for example. Like i have written before...breakouts fails alot.....but a breakout in a clear, strong, bull market or a downward breakout in a clear, strong bear market will hardly fail. e.g 2008 economic meltdown.

Conclusion:You need the right technical pattern for the right trading environment, i.e, only trade breakouts in a strong, clear trend--and only in the direction of that trend. when should you trade head and shoulders? when should you trade gartley pattern? or a megaphone? or three valleys or .......?

You only need to test a technical patterns --to the extent to understand under what market conditions it works and doesnt work.

How about candlesticks? when should you trade a pinbar or a harami or a engulfing bar?

Let us break this down further....isolate any candle or candle patterns....mark its boundaries...then, go to lower and lower time frames...that candle or candle pattern will morph into a classic technical pattern for you. basically, candles and classical technical patterns = the same. Put this to the test. Isolate any candle or candle pattern...then change time frames...that candle pattern will change into a classic chart pattern.

BASICALLY, it boils down to: where should i trade that classic chart pattern. Candles is just a different way of looking at the same thing.

Now, let us take this one step further: ALL CHART PATTERNS...ALL CANDLES PATTERNS....ARE SIMPLY TWO THINGS: Trendlines and/or Support and resistance levels. It is either one or combination of TL and S/R or just one of them. THAT IS IT. that is all of technical analysis pattern. Look at any classic chart pattern...really look at it...what is it? TRENDLINES...and in other cases..trendlines with S/R levels.

Conducting backtest is just conducting backtest on various configurations/permutations of TL and S/R. This is also why i said that ALL CLASSIC TECHNICAL PATTERNS ARE VALID. Because they are all trendlines(linear regression analysis)and S/R levels.

This is the building block of classic technical analysis.

If you are trying to determine positive expectancy on a combination of technical patterns or some sort of "new" technical patterns or candles...really...all that really is....is Trendline or Trendline with S/R that has been re-juggled, re-shuffled, or re-arranged. Nothing more or less. That is what all technical patterns/candles are. TL or TL + S/R. Instead of running backtest to oblivion on this "interesting technical pattern" to determine their positive expectancy...frankly, i can think of a number of solid ways to robustly trade TL and S/R.

I like to reduce things to their core elements and see what makes sense out of it. Trendline are simply linear regression analysis. That has a robust data supporting it(we use it in physics, engineering, etc.) the important thing is knowing how to do good linear regression analysis. S/R has been studied to death in academic circles. I can post academic links supporting their veracity.

It is all about knowing how to use them. You cannot use a hammer to do the job of a chainsaw and then complain about poor results.

respectfully,

skynet

five minutes breake from the tile, lol, ......remember that 4H resistance up there at 2747......don't miss it.......

a real handyman maby the wife will reward you later

Happy week end...

Jumps with french people ... (Skydiving) Crazy vid... Enjoy !!!
watch full screen and YT 720 HD...

Canadians are smart

http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/

slotwina....looked up the name and learned something new...thanks

what is the weather like there in summer?.........noticed your english is pretty good too....are you teaching it?

I use the translator, a bit annoying but it may in time overtake English

after watching your vids i can do the jumps, but the landings?...tricky and where you can get hurt i think.......looks to me it a lot about controlling the speed on impact and at the right angle.....extra tricky

great visuals very cool..........kind of makes me wonder about human psych especially when it comes to trading or really all of it for that matter

Ingmar, I for one will miss your posts. I know what you mean about FF getting in the way. It's the story of the net in general, so a good habit if you are working hard. Anyway, take it easy and drop by soon.

Regards

ditto on that one, smikester......ing is too good to let get away

look dat ass ing..........look dat ass, man

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6...7xwvo1_500.jpg

looks like you are doing all right with the english........

no worries about making mistakes we all do and besides everyone here speaks this language

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6...7xwvo1_500.jpg

Hi mate,

Apreciate your kind comments. Its not like i dont like ff but sometimes i start doubting and not follow plan. Start to look around other 1s there ideas i tryed to skip most trading comments not saying they not good sometimes but i learned 1 thing in years that following own plan works best for me. And also for my own way to become better and look back at my own trading. Also i am gonna focus on some other things next to trading i wanna focus on some stats to try to automate some stuff. If i find some things and i am willing to share i will post here.
I know skynet talked sometime ago here try to make discussion but there are defintly different edges in term of fundies or correlation (cointegration) simpel example if vix is up acertain amount of % lets say and es is up there is % amount of time the market is gonna do the next day something else, so are there more things. Now if you combine that with different parameters. And a sound money manegement bactested longtime you can exploit things to make something around it.

My Goal is really to become everyday better in this field so i try to work hard to that in my life. Its become for me a sport.

Anyway i still have miami on agenda next year so whe all come together i know the plan came here sometime ago still have that gamble acount running from 200 alwell i most tell i had at 1 point a large floating drawdown of around 37%.

But still going well last time i sayed i would redraw or try because some brokers you cant trust but havent done that still whent on it last update was couple of weeks ago 1900 balance was then or so now whe are here still took huge risk at some point and the summit did wellgave jump on this acount but now slowly did only 0.20 lots or sometimes bit more still to much risk and would recomend anybody if he isnt confident or in general. But never believe you cant evrything is possible its a matter how much you want it and believe it yourself.

I will drop by from time to time but not posting like i did before Keep the 15 of july as date in agenda greece runs out of money then see what effect it has.
Also take a look at the crb index whe have broken a mayor support last weeks but now bouncing back watch when it comes back to old res.

don't forget about this, ing

also success, practice practice practice

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5...7xwvo1_500.jpg