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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #29,121
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:40am Jun 28, 2012 6:40am
All over the news here in Britain - Barclays fraud.

I wonder what this fraud will do to the City of London? Once a trusted enclave where a gentleman's handshake sealed a deal, this was the powerhouse of the British economy. Now we are seeing "banks" trading when insolvent, frauds on an increasingly massive scale and a seeming shrug from the government and forces of law and order. Perhaps that old tactic customers use when they feel uneasy may come into play. Perhaps they may go somewhere else.
Gone to a better place
  • #29,122
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:56am Jun 28, 2012 6:56am
Quoting smikester
Here's a handy utility for keeping your screen nice and clear. http://70.40.197.178/sc/screenclean.swf
The Chonchy
  • #29,123
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:57am Jun 28, 2012 6:57am
Quoting smikester
Fraudulent Barclays Bank UK:

June 27, 2012
Barclays is fined £290m by the CFTC, the US Department of Justice Fraud Section and the FSA over attempted Libor manipulation. The FSA’s £59.5m penalty is a record.



Barclays chief wet fish, Mr Bill (the fake hake) Sapphire said in an interview:


"It wasn't me. Honestly! But I will not be passing GO. I will not collect my £200.00. That is how I'm going to punish myself."



Let's hope Bill has got his "Get out of jail free" card. Oh, of course he has. It's called...
The Chonchy
  • #29,124
  • Jun 28, 2012 7:03am Jun 28, 2012 7:03am
Good luck to all who are trading today.

I'm on the sidelines until this is over, looking for a trend to start.

HOLLA
  • #29,125
  • Jun 28, 2012 7:22am Jun 28, 2012 7:22am
Quoting Turtle
Good luck to all who are trading today.

I'm on the sidelines until this is over, looking for a trend to start.

HOLLA
Holla. I was well positioned for Eur and Cable shorts but they are closed for now. Wake me up when we have a daily trend.
Gone to a better place
  • #29,126
  • Jun 28, 2012 7:34am Jun 28, 2012 7:34am
best photo of Elvis ever, i think

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_l9...np8mo1_400.jpg


another great,

Inserted Video
  • #29,127
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:02am Jun 28, 2012 8:02am
hey roro, responding to your post in the useless thread cos I'm too much of a pleb to post in there
re http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/ who the feck are they? marketing bullshitters? nobody gives a sh!t about spain man, they were a third world country 20 years ago......they grew temporarily 'rich' on lies, corruption and selling overpriced sh!te to stupid fooreigners, mainly dumb fat British.....
Barclays, another load o sh!te, lol
trade well and sh@g fit birds
  • #29,128
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:25am Jun 28, 2012 8:25am
Quoting jonnypants
hey roro, responding to your post in the useless thread cos I'm too much of a pleb to post in there
re http://www.tfmarketadvisors.com/ who the feck are they? marketing bullshitters? nobody gives a sh!t about spain man, they were a third world country 20 years ago......they grew temporarily 'rich' on lies, corruption and selling overpriced sh!te to stupid fooreigners, mainly dumb fat British.....
Barclays, another load o sh!te, lol
trade well and sh@g fit birds
you trade european equity indexes?

Tichir is a canadian who writes informative pieces about the bond markets, and is pretty adept at connecting dots across the trading spectrum.

try reading through some of the previous articles

that is the polite answer
  • #29,129
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:26am Jun 28, 2012 8:26am
where was i before being so rudely interrupted there?........right

not much happening so far


http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6...7xwvo1_500.jpg
  • #29,130
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:33am Jun 28, 2012 8:33am
Quoting jonnypants
....nobody gives a sh!t about spain man, they were a third world country 20 years ago......they grew temporarily 'rich' on lies, corruption and selling overpriced sh!te to stupid fooreigners, mainly dumb fat British.....
Barclays, another load o sh!te, lol
trade well and sh@g fit birds
Agree that they were a 3rd world country 20 years ago but now there are the 12th largest economy in the world and the 4th in Europe...so if that is not enough to care, I don't know what...

On Barclays ...yes bastards we all know it...

sisse

Edit: oops wrong thread...never mind...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #29,131
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:41am Jun 28, 2012 8:41am
sisse,

what is your take with this?

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/0...pboc-official/

Coleman had another piece on it the other day too..........with the slowdown China having a shortage of USD

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...datedcontent=1

it was copied on that discussion from yesterday

no doubt people here on this thread would appreciate your inputs as Coleman is calling it a 'game changer'....i certainly do

i am wondering about it in the context of Yen also
  • #29,132
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:47am Jun 28, 2012 8:47am
Quoting roro53
you trade european equity indexes?

Tichir is a canadian who writes informative pieces about the bond markets, and is pretty adept at connecting dots across the trading spectrum.

try reading through some of the previous articles

that is the polite answer
so u defending a fellow fat canadian? lol
finance and trading is all about politics, lies, bs and perception....
it's a race to the bottom dude, europe vs fat north americans to see who can create the most debt, I mean wealth
u might just live long enough to see the bond market implode
ps yes short the sh!t out of all this overpriced crap!! but don't worry as I'm sure another bailout will be along shortly to help out all the fat selfish liars
  • #29,133
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:57am Jun 28, 2012 8:57am
Quoting sisse
Agree that they were a 3rd world country 20 years ago but now there are the 12th largest economy in the world and the 4th in Europe...so if that is not enough to care, I don't know what...

On Barclays ...yes bastards we all know it...

sisse

Edit: oops wrong thread...never mind...
hey sisse man I really like your insight and comments, keep it up
I'm just a crazy guy trying to make sense of all the madness; those bastards and politicians better watch out cos there are a lot of angry, unemployed young folk out there - beware the growing number of people (especially youth) who have nothing to lose!!! 50% youth unemployment in large areas of spain, jeez
anyway, sheesh, medicine time again for me....
ps did u see those spanish farmers with self made rocket launchers? lol
  • #29,134
  • Jun 28, 2012 9:26am Jun 28, 2012 9:26am
Quoting roro53
where was i before being so rudely interrupted there?........right

not much happening so far
i will have to raise you this:

http://wallpaper.shiftwp.com/wp-cont...hite_photo.jpg
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #29,135
  • Jun 28, 2012 9:30am Jun 28, 2012 9:30am
Quoting roro53
best photo of Elvis ever, i think

another great,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kdgvx...eature=related
Speaking of pop culture iconic figures...i will raise you marilyn monroe:

http://images.kaneva.com/filestore8/...onroeUSexy.jpg
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #29,136
  • Jun 28, 2012 9:54am Jun 28, 2012 9:54am
oKAY, let me break down my thought process:

You want to use indices as advance warning signals based on the assumption(rightly so) that the powers in the know will front-run any major play.

That is fine with me.

However, this is how i will approach such a matter.

#1. what set of indices should i use? german bunds? spain stock exchange, greek? german stock exchange? To determine this, i will look at historical cases....before any major announcement in the past 10 or 15 years...based on the politico-economic situation..what indexes best reflect what?

The next step? How do i graft that to this specific, current situation?

another thing that i will bother with is to go about looking at how much the indice moved before the seemly major announcement....i will cross-reference that with when the announcement was a non-event vs when the announcement was a major hit, after the fact.

ROAR ROAR 53, this is the reason why all the other guess work either by sisse or newsletter authors doesnt really carry weight with me on this specific subject. It is all guess work--fun guess work--but still guess work.

any concrete prognostication requires robust data analysis. blame it on my quantitative background. when ever i read stuff like this...my brain simply goes for the premise...and then logically analyze the premise to see if it has any merit.

For me to use IBEX as an advance warning signal...with a due respect, roro53(and you know just how much i respect and admire you)...however, for me to use IBEX as an advance warning signal..it is not enough for me to know that it rallied this many points off its lows...i need historical comparison, contextual analysis, cross-references, statistical allowance of bias...for me to say that mervyn said this or said that, that probably means this or that...i will need to establish a sort of a benchmark for the central bank key figures and determine the trend of policies vs what members are saying....my brain needs to ground things in concrete data.

this is just how my brain works.

the question i then ask myself is this...if i am to throw myself in and perform all these analysis to reach a fairly robust conclusion or a model....what is the reward from all these? It is worth the opportunity cost? Is it even worth the effort expended?

Unless, of course, i just want to throw around hypothesis for the fun of it.






Quoting roro53
not to be glib but if there is a deal being worked out or a coordinated intervention the banks will be positioned ahead of the market and front run price.

also, if there is a deal made then the central planners will want everyone onside so i expect some kind of advance signals will be given not unlike what happened post jackson hole or post the japan tsuanmi or much like the price signal given jan 3 this year when the market opened with a gap higher off LTRO 1

think primary dealer banks carrying out policy

i think advance signals are already...
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #29,137
  • Jun 28, 2012 10:13am Jun 28, 2012 10:13am
i guess everyone develops their own style and refines it over time and experience so it works and/or gets refined to work more effectively/efficiently.

i tend to search out people who i think are intelligent and have the interest to form opinions (not that i agree all the time just because it comes form one source or another) about subjects that matter in the context of price discovery and then try to synthesize information and weigh it against my own perceptions and connect dots to apply to a buy or sell situation.

that is the style i have developed over the past 8 years......it is a lot of work too.

a lot of this trading is about learning imo, and i have no reservations about asking if i don't know or am looking for some clarification or other opinions.......

quants are over my head.......don't really know how else to answer your question

Quoting Skynet
oKAY, let me break down my thought process:

You want to use indices as advance warning signals based on the assumption(rightly so) that the powers in the know will front-run any major play.

That is fine with me.

However, this is how i will approach such a matter.

#1. what set of indices should i use? german bunds? spain stock exchange, greek? german stock exchange? To determine this, i will look at historical cases....before any major announcement in the past 10 or 15 years...based on the politico-economic situation..what indexes best reflect...
  • #29,138
  • Jun 28, 2012 10:44am Jun 28, 2012 10:44am
Quoting chonchy
.........At london close, I'll be working at the tile Ing, a lot of work there man, but it helps a lot with the bills, while growing the acc, have a good one today, yes longs look like a best shot for now......all tho it looks like a bounce here, it may come back up, stops and limits in place and go ahead, do your thing.........buddy take care.......
important news at 3:55 will set the tune........


Peace Amigo.......
Hope you had good day. well i thought i go out à day and let the Yuro play. But offcourse it died and Crumble stopped me out but it try to stay humble.

Had Some closed on the 20 Ish but Shoulda coulda woulda shorted there in morning but thats hindsight crap dont like That lol. What THE Heck tommorow another day.
  • #29,139
  • Jun 28, 2012 2:50pm Jun 28, 2012 2:50pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Hope you had good day. well i thought i go out à day and let the Yuro play. But offcourse it died and Crumble stopped me out but it try to stay humble.

Had Some closed on the 20 Ish but Shoulda coulda woulda shorted there in morning but thats hindsight crap dont like That lol. What THE Heck tommorow another day.
.......In deed it will be, Ing, in deed it will be........
The Chonchy
  • #29,140
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:01pm Jun 28, 2012 3:01pm
Quoting roro53
where was i before being so rudely interrupted there?........right

not much happening so far


http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m6...7xwvo1_500.jpg

man you don't know nothing.........
The Chonchy
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