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Trend Trading All Pairs

  • #11,041
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:24am Jun 28, 2012 6:24am
Quoting shomari
Sorry.
I knowtheir long, but I just want people to get into the mindst of looking at everything, not just charts. That's why included all of the fudamental analysis as well.

LOL, again, sorry.
No need to say sorry, I like the reading, forex college
  • #11,042
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:28am Jun 28, 2012 6:28am
Quoting Skynet
UPDATE:
I think most of us in here were in o that one. Sweeeeeet..
I got out a fewq hours ago to bank some pips, but I have a new entry at 1.5719 short based on the retrace in the m30.

HOW"S THAT TRADE TREATING EVERYONE SO FAR ?


MKB FOUND THAT BADBOY!!!! THANKS !! lol

AND MKB YOUR TRIANGLE BREAKOUT DID WORK !!!! (remember that ! )

KEEP KICKING THIS MARKETS ASS !!!
  • #11,043
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:31am Jun 28, 2012 6:31am
Quoting Skynet
FINAL UPDATE: TARGET REACHED.
(was somebody saying something about triangle or no triangle?..sorry...i wasnt listening...i was too busy making....Hahahahaha)
YEEEEEEEEEEEAHH BOOOOOOOOY!!!! HAHAHAHAH!!!
MKB, fuck the fakers and stack the papers (slang for money).
  • #11,044
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:35am Jun 28, 2012 6:35am
Quoting Custos
do not misquote me. I never said that this H1 setup had anthing to do with being or not being a triangle. this is obviously a swinging setup. We were talking about a setup on the h4, which was an outer trendline with a support line under it, and that was definitely not a triangle.
Hmmm...Actually... that WAS a triangle, and now thanks to MKB's post all our accounts look a little fatter today than yesterday. Keep em coming.

Hey CUSTOS,were you in on this trade, or were you stil backtesting ?
  • #11,045
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:38am Jun 28, 2012 6:38am
Quoting Skynet
what?

are people still talking about triangles or no triangles?

all i can say in response to that is this:
Nuff said, sir !!! Hahaha!
  • #11,046
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:49am Jun 28, 2012 6:49am
Quoting Custos
no, they are not, again read my reply above. This was not about this H1 setup.

And if you just wanna brag then let me tell you this: "You are the man, how much did you make? 10 to 100 bucks? Awesome. Now you just need to make a 100,000% on your account and you are playing with the big boys."
AAAAWWW!! Did you miss this one Custos?
Well FUCK YEAH we're bragging !!!!

We're swing trading banking pips BIIIIIIATCH !!!! LOL !!!

This is gonna be the most profitest making, pip taking, bad ass swing trading thread in the whole of this mutha fucken Forex Factory !!!!

How's that for bragging ?!!!! Wait til I post my end of week charts with all these lovely hundreds of pips.

Make money, or get lost. STop sowing doubt and always telling people how bad you think their analysis is. POST SOME CHARTS OF YOUR TRADES !!! BECAUSE EVERY CRITISISM YOU'VE MADE HASN'T HELD UP.

"Oh your at support !!". WRONG!!! WE WENT THROUGH SUPPORT !!
"Oh, that's not a triangle" WRONG !!! IT SURE WAS, AND WE HAVE THE PIPS TO PROVE IT !!
Post some charts, and get involved, or take your snide comments somewhere else.
  • #11,047
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:50am Jun 28, 2012 6:50am
Quoting shomari
Nuff said, sir !!! Hahaha!

...............
  • #11,048
  • Jun 28, 2012 6:59am Jun 28, 2012 6:59am
Quoting mkb1272
...............
(nuff said, lol)
  • #11,049
  • Jun 28, 2012 7:03am Jun 28, 2012 7:03am
Quoting Custos
okay, then I state it a bit more obvious. Where do you see that triangle? I can't see a triangle there. Only with a lot of phantasy.
WROOOOONG !!!!
  • #11,050
  • Jun 28, 2012 7:27am Jun 28, 2012 7:27am
Quoting shomari
(nuff said, lol)
Hello Shomari,

I just try to apply some rules that I wrote down for a setup to be good for me, most of them are the same as in the Hector course.
Still have to learn about the 'look furhter than your charts' part, but with the links you gave, I am on the right way.
Thank's for you input.
  • #11,051
  • Jun 28, 2012 8:02am Jun 28, 2012 8:02am
Thanks for your vouch. It means alot.

EVERYONE, READ THIS THREAD FROM THE BEGINNING.

Feel free to ask any questions, but honestly, this thread is a veritable TREASURE TROVE of information into this technique. seriously guys, as you're sitting, waiting for your trades to trigger, read this thread like a book. All the tools we use are in it. I uploaded everything yesterday in fact, but they can be found ALL OVER this thread.

SOME ADVICE

1) DOWNLOAD ALL THE TEMPLATES AND INDICATORS I UPLOADED : GOTO post numbers:10871, 10872 AND 10874, TO GET THE TEMPLATES/INDICATORS AND TRENDSCANNER (OLD VERSION,MY FAV)
2)DOWNLOAD "MIG BANK" AND "EASYFOREX" METATRADER DEMO ACCOUNTS AND INSTALL THE TEMPLATES AND INDICATORS INTO THEM (Use these 2 accounts for your "charting")
3)BUY THE "HECTOR TRADER" TRADING COURSE. http://www.hectortrader.com/coursechapter1.php
4)READ THIS THREAD FROM THE BEGINNING AND FOLLOW ALONG.

I guarantee, if you guys do that, YOU WILL BE SUCCESSFUL FOREX MARKET SWING TRADERS.
Google "swing trading FX". That's what this thread, and the people in it, will teach you to become.

NEWBIES

Welcome !!!
Do the above, but also GO TO www.babypips.com AND READ THE WHOLE THING. EVERY WORD. This site will give you a soLid overalL foundation of what the markets are, who the players are, where you fit in, and how it works. THEN, come back, and learn the advanced technique of swing trading, do the above, and start your trading careers.
  • #11,052
  • Jun 28, 2012 9:58am Jun 28, 2012 9:58am
Well, that's great, my TP just missed by just 2 pips .... price retraced back to the sma's, will wait what price will do there, let the trade run for now...

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  • #11,053
  • Jun 28, 2012 10:06am Jun 28, 2012 10:06am
Quoting mkb1272
Well, that's great, my TP just missed by just 2 pips .... price retraced back to the sma's, will wait what price will do there, let the trade run for now...

Attachment
You were up by +70pips more or less, and you didnt B/E the trade when it starts to retrace?!?

what happens to the maxim of :dont let a winning trade turn into a loser?

ONE MORE THING...that thing was running head on into an area of weekly support. check chart below:
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" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,054
  • Jun 28, 2012 10:08am Jun 28, 2012 10:08am
Quoting Skynet
You were up by +70pips more or less, and you didnt B/E the trade when it starts to retrace?!?

what happens to the maxim of :dont let a winning trade turn into a loser?
You are absolutely right
I was at my day job, so I couldn't change the order, but I should have used Hectors sequential exit EA, to move the SL.... no excuses I know..

I just moved my SL in my eurusd D1 trade to BE... won't happen again!!
  • #11,055
  • Jun 28, 2012 10:14am Jun 28, 2012 10:14am
Quoting Skynet
You were up by +70pips more or less, and you didnt B/E the trade when it starts to retrace?!?

what happens to the maxim of :dont let a winning trade turn into a loser?

ONE MORE THING...that thing was running head on into an area of weekly support. check chart below:

I see, thank you Skynet
  • #11,056
  • Edited Jun 29, 2012 2:45am Jun 28, 2012 10:24am | Edited Jun 29, 2012 2:45am
Quoting shomari
AAAAWWW!! Did you miss this one Custos?
Well FUCK YEAH we're bragging !!!!

We're swing trading banking pips BIIIIIIATCH !!!! LOL !!!

This is gonna be the most profitest making, pip taking, bad ass swing trading thread in the whole of this mutha fucken Forex Factory !!!!

How's that for bragging ?!!!! Wait til I post my end of week charts with all these lovely hundreds of pips.

Make money, or get lost. STop sowing doubt and always telling people how bad you think their analysis is. POST SOME CHARTS OF YOUR TRADES !!! BECAUSE...
I don't think you get the essence of profitable trading. It's not about trading each and every setups. It's about taking only the best trades, reducing drawdown as much as possible and enter with appropriate lot sizes.
I think I never said that any analysis is bad. I just gave my point of view and showed what an obstacle could be. The more boxes you can tick, the more obvious the setup is and the less obstacles you have in front of the intended direction, the higher the likelihood of a trade succeeding. You should know that. Of course any setup can work out in the end, just the likelihood is not as high if you are banging against support or trading a not so obvious triangle.

Ah, I am sure to stay for a while just for you and make you a bit more upset with my criticisms, if I am bored
  • #11,057
  • Jun 28, 2012 10:54am Jun 28, 2012 10:54am
With regards to backtesting....

#A. when testing a fundamental hypothesis about the market...there is no other way around this. It makes no sense without historical backtest....unless of course you are making a tightly logical deduction from strong economic premise with regards to fundamentals.(you dont need to robustly test it to oblivion, unless you are a weak logical thinker. Knowing that 2+2=4, you dont need empirical tests to reach the conclusion that 4+4 =8= 2+2+2+2.....this can be extrapolated from 2+2=4.)

#B. Do technical patterns needed to be tested before they are determined to be valid? If you pull a random pattern out of your butt..yes...However, If it is a classic technical patterns, just get "encyclopedia of chart patterns" by thomas bulkowski. Classic technical patterns do not need to be tested before you can assume them to be valid. They are all valid. It is just a matter of knowing when and where. Yes, you are reading that correctly. why then, you may ask, do they fail? ANS: You are simply trading them incorrectly. You cannot use a scalpel to do the job of a hammer. What do i mean?

Let us take breakouts for example. Like i have written before...breakouts fails alot.....but a breakout in a clear, strong, bull market or a downward breakout in a clear, strong bear market will hardly fail. e.g 2008 economic meltdown.

Conclusion:You need the right technical pattern for the right trading environment, i.e, only trade breakouts in a strong, clear trend--and only in the direction of that trend. when should you trade head and shoulders? when should you trade gartley pattern? or megaphone? or.......?

You only need to test a technical patterns --to the extent to understand under what market conditions it works and doesnt work. which of course, goes to the familiarity with fundamental aspect of the market.

One of the beauty of hector 3sma is that it is trend trading....that incredibly increases the odds of successful trading by baking in fundamental direction and limiting false technical breakdown. If you choose the optimal trading setups.

How about candlesticks? when should you trade a pinbar or a harami or a engulfing bar?

Let us break this down further....isolate any candle or candle patterns....mark its boundaries...then, go to lower and lower time frames...that candle or candle pattern will morph into a classic technical pattern for you. basically, candles and classical technical patterns = the same. Put this to the test. Isolate any candle or candle pattern...then change time frames...that candle pattern will change into a classic chart pattern.

BASICALLY, it boils down to: where should i trade that classic chart pattern. Candles is just a different way of looking at the same thing.

Now, let us take this one step further: ALL CHART PATTERNS...ALL CANDLES PATTERNS....ARE SIMPLY TWO THINGS: Trendlines and/or Support and resistance levels. It is either one or combination of TL and S/R or just one of them. THAT IS IT. that is all of technical analysis pattern. Look at any classic chart pattern...really look at it...what is it? TRENDLINES...and in other cases..trendlines with S/R levels.

Conducting backtest is just conducting backtest on various configurations/permutations of TL and S/R. This is also why i said that ALL CLASSIC TECHNICAL PATTERNS ARE VALID. Because they are all trendlines(linear regression analysis)and S/R levels.

This is the building block of classic technical analysis.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,058
  • Jun 28, 2012 4:03pm Jun 28, 2012 4:03pm
Quoting Custos
I don't think you get the essence of profitable trading. It's not about trading each and every setups. It's about taking only the best trades of a positive expectancy system, reducing drawdown as much as possible and enter with appropriate lot sizes.
I think I never said that any analysis is bad. I just gave my point of view and showed what an obstacle could be. The more boxes you can tick, the more obvious the setup is and the less obstacles you have in front of the intended direction, the higher the likelihood of a trade succeeding. You should...
well, I think that if it is some system with positive expectancy than each signal should be taken cause we have no idea what market will do after we enter trade. in my case I have 2 signals, one is to start watching for trade short or long and then I am looking for good entry based on PA.
Emotions however should be kept in check whether positive or negative cause if someone is too happy with successful trade he might become too upset with losing one when the most important is to follow the method, cut losers and let profits run.
  • #11,059
  • Jun 28, 2012 7:32pm Jun 28, 2012 7:32pm
Holy Cow,

CUSTOS likes to talk about that stuff.

I will be blunt: If it is not an interesting fundamental model of the market(either indicative or reactive analysis), i am not too interested, to be honest.

If you are trying to determine positive expectancy on a combination of technical patterns or some sort of "new" technical patterns or candles...really...all that really is....is Trendline or Trendline with S/R that has been re-juggled, re-shuffled, or re-arranged. Nothing more or less. That is what all technical patterns/candles are. TL or TL + S/R. Instead of running backtest to oblivion on this "interesting technical pattern" to determine their positive expectancy...frankly, i can think of a number of solid ways to robustly trade TL and S/R.

I like to reduce things to their core elements and see what makes sense out of it. Trendline are simply linear regression analysis. That has a robust data supporting it(we use it in physics, engineering, etc.) the important thing is knowing how to do good linear regression analysis. S/R has been studied to death in academic circles. I can post academic links supporting their veracity.

When i first read a couple of CUSTOS posts about positive expectancy/backtest, i thought he was talking about fundamentals...then i read a couple more then i realized that he was talking about technical patterns. It seems to me all that effort could have been bypassed by simply seeing technical patterns for what they all are: TL or TL + S/R and then mastering how to properly do (a) linear regression analysis (b)depth understanding of supply and demand zones.

It is all about knowing how to use them. You cannot use a hammer to do the job of a chainsaw and then complain about poor results.

Now, if anybody has some fundamental scenarios or model that is robustly reasoned, that will definitely pique my interest.

My two cents

-SKYNET

Quoting Holy Cow
well, I think that if it is some system with positive expectancy than each signal should be taken cause we have no idea what market will do after we enter trade. in my case I have 2 signals, one is to start watching for trade short or long and then I am looking for good entry based on PA.
Emotions however should be kept in check whether positive or negative cause if someone is too happy with successful trade he might become too upset with losing one when the most important is to follow the method, cut losers and let profits run.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #11,060
  • Jun 29, 2012 12:24am Jun 29, 2012 12:24am
Quoting Holy Cow
well, I think that if it is some system with positive expectancy than each signal should be taken cause we have no idea what market will do after we enter trade. in my case I have 2 signals, one is to start watching for trade short or long and then I am looking for good entry based on PA.
Emotions however should be kept in check whether positive or negative cause if someone is too happy with successful trade he might become too upset with losing one when the most important is to follow the method, cut losers and let profits run.
totally agreed with every point you say. However, I think trading not very obvious setups or setups that are banging against long-term resistance/support will not have a positive expectancy. To turn the expectancy positive, the setups need to be obvious and clean.
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