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AUD/USD

  • #47,961
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:29am Jun 28, 2012 1:29am
Quoting DaddyBear
I am 100% sure that this is a corrective wave.
Hey, I'm not gonna argue with you, I mean, who would argue with 100% CERTAINTY? Fwiw, I don't think even R.N.Elliot himself would make that kind of statement.


Quoting DaddyBear
"I'm leaning toward it being a continuation move." How did you believe so. Is there anything supporting your belief?
I have a certain set of conditions that I look for, that tell me whether I want to be long something or whether I want to be short something, they are called 'setups'. I saw one of my 'setups' for a long position in AUDUSD, so I went long AUDUSD. I also have a set of conditions that tell me:

a. When to exit this trade
b. When to go short

So far, NONE of these conditions have been met, therefore I am staying long AUDUSD.
  • #47,962
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:29am Jun 28, 2012 1:29am
Quoting DaddyBear
I understand why you think this way. Based on your message, I'd assume you are not familiar with EW principle. My message is not intended to persuade you to change your thinking.

R.N. Elliot was not a fool so am I. I did not want to learn EW principle in the beginning. However, after studying all kind indicators, I decided to focus on EW principle. Elliott did not create EW principle. Instead, he discovered it. Combined with Fibonacci number, EW principle is the corner stone of the law of the market.

Distinguishing a corrective wave and an...
I hope this is constructive...

first, is RN Elliot is a trader/investor? is FIbonancci a trader?

second, is who loss money in market is fool?

---

i prefer its continuation because:

1. like my sentiment in my signatures, european banks downgrade did give a bear momentum. my estimation is 2 weeks, but it appears bear momentum is fading --- i trade the price, not my sentiment

2. simply, PRICE ACTION
if you in market for enough time, i believe you can see market movement better than RN Elliot.
  • #47,963
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:42am Jun 28, 2012 1:42am
Quoting redbox
I hope this is constructive...

first, is RN Elliot is a trader/investor? is FIbonancci a trader?

second, is who loss money in market is fool?

---

i prefer its continuation because:

1. like my sentiment in my signatures, european banks downgrade did give a bear momentum. my estimation is 2 weeks, but it appears bear momentum is fading --- i trade the price, not my sentiment

2. simply, PRICE ACTION
if you in market for enough time, i believe you can see market movement better than RN Elliot.

RB,

Both RN Elliott and Fibonacci were masters and geniuses. If you had spent a few minutes to understand who they were, you would not post such a question.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,964
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:47am Jun 28, 2012 1:47am
Quoting DaddyBear
RB,

Both RN Elliott and Fibonacci were masters and geniuses. If you had spent a few minutes to understand who they were, you would not post such a question.
is who loss money in market is a fool?
can you share your opinion with this question?
  • #47,965
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:47am Jun 28, 2012 1:47am
Quoting DaddyBear
RB,

Both RN Elliott and Fibonacci were masters and geniuses. If you had spent a few minutes to understand who they were, you would not post such a question.
There's a lot of debate around Elliot.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #47,966
  • Jun 28, 2012 2:03am Jun 28, 2012 2:03am
Quoting Aldente
Hey, I'm not gonna argue with you, I mean, who would argue with 100% CERTAINTY? Fwiw, I don't think even R.N.Elliot himself would make that kind of statement.




I have a certain set of conditions that I look for, that tell me whether I want to be long something or whether I want to be short something, they are called 'setups'. I saw one of my 'setups' for a long position in AUDUSD, so I went long AUDUSD. I also have a set of conditions that tell me:

a. When to exit this trade
b. When to go short

So far, NONE of these conditions have been...
I'm still short at this point, but I agree with your mentality. I've been 100% sure in the past and it's cost me dearly. The fundies still point downward and the .618 fib hasn't been breached yet, but the market can do whatever it damn well pleases. Once I determine the odds are no longer in my favor to go my direction (from the current price) I'm out. No ifs, ands or buts about it.
This is a probabilities game. It doesn't matter how many times you are right if you mortgage the farm on a losing trade.
  • #47,967
  • Jun 28, 2012 2:12am Jun 28, 2012 2:12am
Hi
As I told yesterday, the H1 SMA20 brings a great support. On my chart I will add additional short positions if SMA20 or TL brokes.
GL!
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"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #47,968
  • Edited 2:38am Jun 28, 2012 2:32am | Edited 2:38am
I've been long for about 24 hours now. Like watching paint dry. Entered at 1.0071 and have my stop at 1.0100,the 15 min swing. Nothing says short to me, a retest of the downtrendline isn't out of the question.If it does, I'm still not going short until I see a trend change. I'm just following PA.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #47,969
  • Jun 28, 2012 2:37am Jun 28, 2012 2:37am
Quoting DaddyBear
RB,

Both RN Elliott and Fibonacci were masters and geniuses. If you had spent a few minutes to understand who they were, you would not post such a question.
if my question is rude, i'm sorry for it...
maybe its because of different mindset.

i share my opinion here, hope can fix missunderstanding (if any)

1. both of them are not trader. yes, they are geniuses. however, trading world is completely different. fyi, Sir Isaac Newton is a trader/investor and yet is a genius too. Unfortunately for him, his carrier at market is not sucessful one, he lost big money. why?

2. by given Sir Isaac Newton as example, who loss in market is NOT a fool. because of this, i CAN accept any SMALL loss in market, because none of my ego attacked here if my loss become terribly BIG, i too doubt myself, because its my money attacked . so i must prevent that happen...
  • #47,970
  • Jun 28, 2012 2:42am Jun 28, 2012 2:42am
I'm picking 1.0085ish for a retest of the trend line and the previous resistance level that took so long to break.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #47,971
  • Jun 28, 2012 2:48am Jun 28, 2012 2:48am
Quoting bogus
I'm picking 1.0085ish for a retest of the trend line and the previous resistance level that took so long to break.
Good call! But watch out for the upcoming unemployment data. It could break down the trendline and the MA.
"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #47,972
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:12am Jun 28, 2012 3:12am
Quoting Aldente
So far, NONE of these conditions have been met, therefore I am staying long AUDUSD.
i bet u now :-)
  • #47,973
  • Edited 3:52am Jun 28, 2012 3:12am | Edited 3:52am
Quoting Aldente
I wasn't really commenting on your method. I have no problem with EW theory, but it falls into the same spectrum of weighing probabilities, just like any other method. Making assertive statements like 'this is a corrective move' or 'Aussie has to come down', it doesn't really seem like you are thinking in probabilities, but rather in certainties and a need to be 'right'. The market does not care about your EW analysis. Too much rigidity can kill any method or system. Having confidence in your methods and analysis is important, but I can tell...
When Noah built Ark, everybody laughed at him. When flood finally came, they all died.

I have the ability to see market's next move but you don't. I foresaw Aussie would come back down but you saw nothing. I did not put any SL for my trade. Please keep your long as long as you believe in your own words.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,974
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:15am Jun 28, 2012 3:15am
Okay bears, SMA broken, TL broken, first corr touched next step is 1.0045
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"Study the past if you would define the future." Confucius
  • #47,975
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:17am Jun 28, 2012 3:17am
Quoting redbox
is who loss money in market is a fool?
can you share your opinion with this question?
I made an incorrect judgement of the final wave but my vision was intact. I foresaw Aussie to come back down. I did not lose money. Instead, I have been waiting for this moment for two days.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,976
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:21am Jun 28, 2012 3:21am
Quoting DaddyBear

I have the ability to see market's next move....
lol not even, u were saying bears every post as it rallied 100 pips
  • #47,977
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:24am Jun 28, 2012 3:24am
Quoting 2+2=4ex
Very nice post. 100% true.
Do you still believe it was 100% true now? I have the ability to foresee market next move. Aldente couldn't see what I saw. So you believed in someone who couldn't see market next move and still endorsed him with such a message?
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,978
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:33am Jun 28, 2012 3:33am
here is my chart again
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  • #47,979
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:40am Jun 28, 2012 3:40am
Quoting Silencer
lol not even, u were saying bears every post as it rallied 100 pips
What 100 pips? It was 50 pips up. Now it dropped 65 pips. I look at the big picture but you look at the small bumps.

I know what you are thinking. You like to get a Vee and saw me got 2 Vees in one day. This made you upset about me. Now you see me like an enemy. I really don't understand your mindset at all. If you like Vee so much, you may take all mine as long as FF approves.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,980
  • Jun 28, 2012 3:53am Jun 28, 2012 3:53am
Quoting DaddyBear

I know what you are thinking.
no u dont

obviously those are just accusations
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