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AUD/USD

  • #47,941
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:36pm Jun 27, 2012 9:36pm
Just share my opinion..

Daily chart hasn't break from the bearish trendline, but h4 is currently heading to resistance at 1.0215 after we broke at 1.0070, i think.
So, lets see if it will go north to 1.0215 or bounce south again (from the daily trendline)...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 28jun12 daily.jpg Size: 166 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aud 28jun12 h4.jpg Size: 243 KB
  • #47,942
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:41pm Jun 27, 2012 9:41pm
will ranging for a while?
EU Summit...

below is H4 chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ss.png Size: 8 KB
  • #47,943
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:45pm Jun 27, 2012 9:45pm
Quoting Intrepid32
Not attacking you Daddy Bear, just giving Redbox his props on a good trade.
Your explanation is accepted. I hope we all respect each other in this forum. We are here to help each other not to laugh at someone who made wrong judgements. When people made wrong judgements, there was already a price came with those mistakes. During those tough time, we shall give them a hand. Do you agree?
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,944
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:48pm Jun 27, 2012 9:48pm
Quoting Eric D
You are good DaddyBear, I certainly like your drawings!, especially the shield and helmet at the entrance as remains of the bull-bears battle, keep 'em coming!
Eric, Thanks for your encouragement. I will do my best. -DB-
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,945
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:54pm Jun 27, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Your explanation is accepted. I hope we all respect each other in this forum. We are here to help each other not to laugh at someone who made wrong judgements. When people made wrong judgements, there was already a price came with those mistakes. During those tough time, we shall give them a hand. Do you agree?
The best sentence I read today
Everyone should agree with that
  • #47,946
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:54pm Jun 27, 2012 9:54pm
Quoting redbox
just curious, do you using SL?
It depends. I did not use SL for this trade because I followed the trend. Current pop is a corrective move. In the end, Aussie has to come down. Tonight's pop has something to do with EU summit, which is like a double-sided sword.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,947
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:27pm Jun 27, 2012 10:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Current pop is a corrective move. In the end, Aussie has to come down.

Really? Why does the Aussie have to come down? Do you know something that no one else does? Do you have some insider knowledge of the RBA intervening or something?
  • #47,948
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:41pm Jun 27, 2012 10:41pm
Quoting Aldente
Really? Why does the Aussie have to come down? Do you know something that no one else does? Do you have some insider knowledge of the RBA intervening or something?
What I know about is available in the bookstore. Based on EW principle, Current bear flag is a a corrective wave not an impulsive wave. A corrective wave will end sooner or later then the main trend will resume.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,949
  • Edited 11:21pm Jun 27, 2012 11:07pm | Edited 11:21pm
Quoting DaddyBear
What I know about is available in the bookstore. Based on EW principle, Current bear flag is a a corrective wave not an impulsive wave. A corrective wave will end sooner or later then the main trend will resume.
EW principle is very useful in trading decision making. However, understanding the principle is one thing, counting the waves in real-time mode is another story. I made some correct calls on Aussie recently. My judgements were based on EW principle. I am not sure if anyone in this forum also uses EW principle to trade. Without a second opinion, the possibility of making incorrect judgements would be increased.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,950
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:11am Jun 28, 2012 12:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
EW principle is very useful in trading decision making.
I wasn't really commenting on your method. I have no problem with EW theory, but it falls into the same spectrum of weighing probabilities, just like any other method. Making assertive statements like 'this is a corrective move' or 'Aussie has to come down', it doesn't really seem like you are thinking in probabilities, but rather in certainties and a need to be 'right'. The market does not care about your EW analysis. Too much rigidity can kill any method or system. Having confidence in your methods and analysis is important, but I can tell you right now, Aussie does NOT have to come down. This MIGHT be a corrective move, or it could be a continuation move(I'm leaning toward it being a continuation move). It MIGHT come down, or it could go much much higher. At what point would your bias change? Have you defined a set of conditions where, if price moves above this price level, or my indicator crosses this threshhold, or price breaks above this S/R level, where you could say 'OK, I no longer consider this a corrective move' or 'price has to move back below this level to remain valid as a corrective move'
  • #47,951
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:21am Jun 28, 2012 12:21am
Quoting Aldente
I wasn't really commenting on your method. I have no problem with EW theory, but it falls into the same spectrum of weighing probabilities, just like any other method. Making assertive statements like 'this is a corrective move' or 'Aussie has to come down', it doesn't really seem like you are thinking in probabilities, but rather in certainties and a need to be 'right'. The market does not care about your EW analysis. Too much rigidity can kill any method or system. Having confidence in your methods and analysis is important, but I can tell you...
Very nice post. 100% true.
  • #47,952
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:30am Jun 28, 2012 12:30am
There is a guy from forexfactory who has this in his signature " Bulls make money , Bears make money, pigs get slaughtered". Everyone has their own account to be responsible for. Money management is the key. The market will do what it wants to do and no one could predict it . Just have a good trading plan and stick to it.. No one is always right. our job is to help each other take away the money from the greedy bankers
  • #47,953
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:44am Jun 28, 2012 12:44am
Quoting Aldente
I'm leaning toward it being a continuation move. It MIGHT come down, or it could go much much higher. At what point would your bias change?
agree with you... i prefer continuation here.
i'm looking 'hot spot' to add more
  • #47,954
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:47am Jun 28, 2012 12:47am
my guess is when the greedies come in to trade , they will push it back down to support and fake out some people. then reverse it.
  • #47,955
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:55am Jun 28, 2012 12:55am
Quoting jeremyyn
Money management is the key.
for me, 'cut losess, let profits run' is a even better key
  • #47,956
  • Jun 28, 2012 12:55am Jun 28, 2012 12:55am
Quoting Aldente
I wasn't really commenting on your method. I have no problem with EW theory, but it falls into the same spectrum of weighing probabilities, just like any other method. Making assertive statements like 'this is a corrective move' or 'Aussie has to come down', it doesn't really seem like you are thinking in probabilities, but rather in certainties and a need to be 'right'. The market does not care about your EW analysis. Too much rigidity can kill any method or system. Having confidence in your methods and analysis is important, but I can tell...
I understand why you think this way. Based on your message, I'd assume you are not familiar with EW principle. My message is not intended to persuade you to change your thinking.

R.N. Elliot was not a fool so am I. I did not want to learn EW principle in the beginning. However, after studying all kind indicators, I decided to focus on EW principle. Elliott did not create EW principle. Instead, he discovered it. Combined with Fibonacci number, EW principle is the corner stone of the law of the market.

Distinguishing a corrective wave and an impulsive wave is like identifying a man and a woman. It's not that difficult if you have studied EW principle. I am 100% sure that this is a corrective wave.

"I'm leaning toward it being a continuation move." How did you believe so. Is there anything supporting your belief?
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,957
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:11am Jun 28, 2012 1:11am
Quoting DaddyBear
I understand why you think this way. Based on your message, I'd assume you are not familiar with EW principle. My message is not intended to persuade you to change your thinking.

R.N. Elliot was not a fool so am I. I did not want to learn EW principle in the beginning. However, after studying all kind indicators, I decided to focus on EW principle. Elliott did not create EW principle. Instead, he discovered it. Combined with Fibonacci number, EW principle is the corner stone of the law of the market.

Distinguishing a corrective wave and an impulsive...
If this thing pops up to 1.0385, would you still think that this upward move as a corrective wave?

Well anyways, corrective or not, as long as it makes us green pips..I'm fine with it..
  • #47,958
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:18am Jun 28, 2012 1:18am
This is a scary chart now. some indicators will say go long and some will say go short.. guess we wait and see.
  • #47,959
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:22am Jun 28, 2012 1:22am
Quoting irfandbl
If this thing pops up to 1.0385, would you still think that this upward move as a corrective wave?

Well anyways, corrective or not, as long as it makes us green pips..I'm fine with it..
I am not going to spend time to debate this issue. Time will prove the law of the market.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,960
  • Jun 28, 2012 1:29am Jun 28, 2012 1:29am
on AudUsd the Major Resistance at 1.0131 seems good for shorting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.gif Size: 106 KB
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