The Really Useless Thread | Page 4922 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #98,421
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:36am Jun 27, 2012 10:36am
London closed at 2447 and i didn't get my entry. .. bbl
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,422
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:37am Jun 27, 2012 10:37am
Quoting PayTheLimit
where you gonna risk them to?
take some off early to pay the bills.. and still target 2816 and 2962/64
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,423
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:38am Jun 27, 2012 10:38am
Quoting gatorinla
take some off early to pay the bills.. and still target 2816 and 2962/64
sames, catch ya later..
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #98,424
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:38am Jun 27, 2012 10:38am
bbl .. gone
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,425
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:58am Jun 27, 2012 10:58am
Quoting roro53
i am trying to look at this mess from different angles so appreciate your inputs, sisse

here is one on china and the USD
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...datedcontent=1

Ray Dialo looks to match up with your take on Germany
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ray-da...nt-possibility

David Rosenberg is pushing the line that a slowdown in China is being exacerbated by problems in Europe and that the...
V good links mate. Good reading while we wait for the outcome. Is now "open" the general assumption that the ECB will cut rates next week...stocks flying and already starting to count the next $$$ wave...

In the Euro, it will FA open lower levels depending on the cut. According to my euro FA chart [highlight]fresh levels baking in the oven[/highlight]:

1. 0.25 cut will open 1.162x
2. 0.50 cut will open 1.08x.
3. A further cut to negative rates will open parity and below

we'll see but first the Summit

Meanwhile....

As a trader I have 2 main issues with this: one is the analyst syndrome and the other is about timing. The first problem I have with China (not talking about your sources but in general) is the "analyst syndrome".

Look IMO, as an economist or analyst you can analyze all the macroeconomic factors in the equation.

 

  1. Good economists/analysts will correlate the relevant variables and take ceteris paribus the irrelevant ones and make a valid forecast/outlook.

  1. The mediocre ones (many of them especially the ones you see in mass media e.g The Telegraph in the UK, etc) will cherry pick random facts and ideas and make an nontechnical collage of non sense to make a headline and sell panic/fear/mania/anti or Pro EU, Anti or Pro China or etc.

  1. But the most "dangerous" ones are those good economist/analyst that come from highly influential political think tanks (especially from the US) that are flying like crows on CNBC/Bloomberg, etc because they only match and highlight the worse of the worse but hide any reference to the valid counter arguments/variables.


The case of China is the best example on this. We have been hearing and brain wash that China is going to take over "us" but since the US and Europe economy is in crisis since 2008 they have started to look for any loopholes, flaws, mistake,, potential problems, etc to make us feel that China is the problem and is going to collapse and/or make the world collapse...

Sorry for my nontechnical rant but IMO if you are trying to look at this mess from different angles first you may want to break the "analyst syndrome" and organize the FA factors in more "trading related" manner (thing I complain a lot about ZH) in the basic short, mid and long term factors.

The order of importance is key as a long term factor will never override a shorter one. I am not talking about a 5 minute knee jerk reaction move, I am reffering to real FA factors that affect a currency:

Short term is EZ debt crisis no more no less. No China no US deficits, no WWIII. Without that out of the eqaution (whatever the outcome) the other mid and long term FA factors are irrelvant for trading.

IMO what is happening with the Renminbi and in China in general is the consequences of global slowdown. The biggest trading block in the World (the EU) is in recession and China is not shield from that. No China hidden agenda or dollar holdings via a slowdown in exports making the exchange rate flexible.

In simple words, a simple outcome on the debt crtisis as the ECB cutting rates to negative will have a massive impact across the board (not only in currencies) despite all the analyst assumptions on China or the US as a trigger ...let's leave those other factors for later ...

1.245x hanging on air but still holding in the euro. Let see if have some more juice with London going to watch the football ....

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #98,426
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:09am Jun 27, 2012 11:09am
All I see are dirty bastards not playing ball with me!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15min.PNG Size: 46 KB


Those buy limits have been there since yesteday...unmoved...un-hit. Missed my short TPs, too. NY back in range AGAIN? Bastards!

Back in 20.
  • #98,427
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:15am Jun 27, 2012 11:15am
Quoting kenfen69
All I see are dirty bastards not playing ball with me!

Attachment

Those buy limits have been there since yesteday...unmoved...un-hit. Missed my short TPs, too. NY back in range AGAIN? Bastards!

Back in 20.
I hear you mate...bastards .... I think we are too many traders waiting for the same tests to make it that fluid...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #98,428
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:45am Jun 27, 2012 11:45am
Quoting sisse
I hear you mate...bastards .... I think we are too many traders waiting for the same tests to make it that fluid...

sisse


Can't even buy/sell the edges of their lousy range because they keep making it smaller! Has to blow one way or the other soon, I guess. Question is...are the bastards all squared up before the proceedings this weekend? With M/Q end coming up, I can't believe there aren't going to be some sort of flows before then. Ah well:

GL mate.
  • #98,429
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:47am Jun 27, 2012 11:47am
Quoting kenfen69


Can't even buy/sell the edges of their lousy range because they keep making it smaller! Has to blow one way or the other soon, I guess. Question is...are the bastards all squared up before the proceedings this weekend? With M/Q end coming up, I can't believe there aren't going to be some sort of flows before then. Ah well:

GL mate.
I am ALL IN mate..... just look DX [daily, 4h, and 1h] sweet..
  • #98,430
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:47am Jun 27, 2012 11:47am
Quoting sisse
In the Euro, it will FA open lower levels depending on the cut. According to my euro FA chart [highlight]fresh levels baking in the oven[/highlight]:

1. 0.25 cut will open 1.162x
2. 0.50 cut will open 1.08x.
3. A further cut to negative rates will open parity and below

we'll see but first the Summit

Meanwhile....

As a trader I have 2 main issues with this: one is the analyst syndrome and the other is about timing. The first problem I have with China (not talking about your sources...
Solid gold!
  • #98,431
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:57am Jun 27, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Piters
I am ALL IN mate..... just look DX [daily, 4h, and 1h] sweet..


ALL IN? Like...

Attached Image


How's tricks, mate? Bastards were toying with my sanity last night. Not really, but sure was a snooze-fest. Nice little spike on the Golden one today...catch a few coins...bars?
  • #98,432
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:57am Jun 27, 2012 11:57am
Quoting Piters
I am ALL IN mate..... just look DX [daily, 4h, and 1h] sweet..
Guess you're seeing something I'm not, Piters. I'm continuing to hold my shorts, just tightening up the pay day line as we go (SL).
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #98,433
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:02pm Jun 27, 2012 12:02pm
Quoting Piters
I am ALL IN mate..... just look DX [daily, 4h, and 1h] sweet..
Locked and loaded long then?
  • #98,434
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:04pm Jun 27, 2012 12:04pm
Quoting Geppy
Guess you're seeing something I'm not, Piters. I'm continuing to hold my longs, just tightening up the pay day line as we go (SL).
Working on pretty big divergence across those three TFs...I think is what he's saying.

Are you long DX, brother? Or did you just get a bout of dyslexia in reference to your glorious short EUs?
  • #98,435
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:06pm Jun 27, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting kenfen69
Working on pretty big divergence across those three TFs...I think is what he's saying.

Are you long DX, brother? Or did you just get a bout of dyslexia in reference to your glorious short EUs?
No, not long DX... MBT doesn't allow me to trade it (same with gold, silver, etc.)

Would love to see the chart with divergence though.

EDIT: haha, wow... must have not gotten enough sleep last night. Dyslexia for sure... meant SHORTS as in Bermuda shorts cause when I cash these babies in, that's where I'm going
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #98,436
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:06pm Jun 27, 2012 12:06pm
Quoting kenfen69
Working on pretty big divergence across those three TFs...I think is what he's saying.
Maybe not. But he may remain a man of mystery on the subject. The mysterious Pink Knight.
  • #98,437
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:08pm Jun 27, 2012 12:08pm
thx for the effort to put that out.......and, the rate cuts you listed which put meaning to price context

agree with your view re analysts and sorting out the differences as to what gets read and how it gets interpreted....a subjective skill imo

also agree with your overall take and bringing it all down to the simplest common denominator/s, and was in a hurry this AM trying to hit some of the relevant points which you have already made as it relates to a slowdown in Europe and the knock-on effects on China and the US and how the dots are connected, but first things first and short term EZ debt crisis is it.

about NIRP which you have also already mentioned......initial impression on first read was that aside from the trillion flooding the market i took it to infer that policy makers are floating it to send a message or may be at the point of stepping beyond previous limits..........

i have been harping about Mervyn King lately and King leading what is quickly becoming a louder and louder plea for (much) more stimulus, and think King's role here is in line with a wider and probably coordinated intervention, but as you so accurately point out first things first

thanks again, and about the rant; fire away. it is all good i think

Quoting sisse
V good links mate. Good reading while we wait for the outcome. Is now "open" the general assumption that the ECB will cut rates next week...stocks flying and already starting to count the next $$$ wave...

In the Euro, it will FA open lower levels depending on the cut. According to my euro FA chart [highlight]fresh levels baking in the oven[/highlight]:

1. 0.25 cut will open 1.162x
2. 0.50 cut will open 1.08x.
3. A further cut to negative rates will open parity and below

we'll see but first the...
  • #98,438
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:13pm Jun 27, 2012 12:13pm
Quoting Geppy
No, not long DX... MBT doesn't allow me to trade it (same with gold, silver, etc.)

Would love to see the chart with divergence though.
H4...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DX.PNG Size: 63 KB


Upon looking closer though...I don't think divergence is what he's talking about at all...and I should probably shut it until...and if...he clarifies it. I'm seeing nothing to be suggesting an ALL IN...anywhere!
  • #98,439
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:13pm Jun 27, 2012 12:13pm
In case anyone is curious, we're currently trading up against the 50% fibo retracement of the most recent drop. Not to mention, staying below 1.2480ish is a great sign for the bears.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #98,440
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:14pm Jun 27, 2012 12:14pm
Quoting Geppy
Guess you're seeing something I'm not, Piters. I'm continuing to hold my shorts, just tightening up the pay day line as we go (SL).
4H bearish div [DX].. forming as a rising flag.. if that once gone, then Weekly Bearish DV is on table..
95 traders viewing now