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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #29,081
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:25am Jun 27, 2012 9:25am
something is pushing the market

maybe NIRP?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nirp-y...negative-rates

"once [the EUR747 billion in ECB deposits] has to pay to stay, it is certain that nearly $1 trillion in deposit cash, currently in electronic format, would flood the market."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe...tron-bomb-nirp

neutron money bomb?
  • #29,082
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:37am Jun 27, 2012 9:37am
Roro....... good to see bud!



Quoting roro53
very kind thoughts....this thread is magic

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5...7xwvo1_500.jpg
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #29,083
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:04am Jun 27, 2012 10:04am
Quoting forex_growth
Roro....... good to see bud!
that's what she said too........lol

seriously though...you 2

like to get a confirmation on NIRP
  • #29,084
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:29am Jun 27, 2012 10:29am
hee hee touche!

and yeah great article that mate! off to bed now - heres one for the road...

http://myspace.roflposters.com/image...m].myspace.jpg


quote=roro53;5794828]that's what she said too........lol

seriously though...you 2

like to get a confirmation on NIRP[/quote]
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #29,085
  • Jun 27, 2012 11:13am Jun 27, 2012 11:13am



http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe...al-bond-yields
  • #29,086
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:30pm Jun 27, 2012 12:30pm
Well still long the cracker will see

Seems greece running out of money on 15yh jully so a date to put in agenda for some if you wanna frontrun
Attached Image
  • #29,087
  • Edited 12:45pm Jun 27, 2012 12:31pm | Edited 12:45pm
NIRP

here #98429

here #98433

here #98442

here #98444

Quote
Original Post by Roro....thx for the effort to put that out, sisse.......and, the rate cuts you listed which put meaning to price context

agree with your view re analysts and sorting out the differences as to what gets read and how it gets interpreted....a subjective skill imo

also agree with your overall take and bringing it all down to the simplest common denominator/s, and was in a hurry this AM trying to hit some of the relevant points which you have already made as it relates to a slowdown in Europe and the knock-on effects on China and the US and how the dots...
Quote:
Quote
Originally Posted by sisse http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
[i]V good links mate. Good reading while we wait for the outcome. Is now "open" the general assumption that the ECB will cut rates next week...stocks flying and already starting to count the next $$$ wave...

In the Euro, it will FA open lower levels depending on the cut. According to my euro FA chart...
  • #29,088
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:46pm Jun 27, 2012 12:46pm
sisse's cuts..........a must see

#98429
  • #29,089
  • Jun 27, 2012 1:01pm Jun 27, 2012 1:01pm
Quoting roro53
sisse's cuts..........a must see

#98429
goldman expects also a rate cut ideal scenario would be a move to 1.30 on good summit things then a rate cut. Around that time but probally to much to ask. will see

http://f.doctm.com/81b0ee20/portal.pdf

I rather be worried about the pboc for global equities if they cut more overlay pboc rates with es..
  • #29,090
  • Jun 27, 2012 1:29pm Jun 27, 2012 1:29pm
Quoting ingmarforex
goldman expects also a rate cut ideal scenario would be a move to 1.30 on good summit things then a rate cut. Around that time but probally to much to ask. will see

http://f.doctm.com/81b0ee20/portal.pdf

I rather be worried about the pboc for global equities if they cut more overlay pboc rates with es..
ing.....you have probably been following it but maybe for the others later tonight?

#98467

#98472
  • #29,091
  • Jun 27, 2012 7:59pm Jun 27, 2012 7:59pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Well still long the cracker will see

Seems greece running out of money on 15yh jully so a date to put in agenda for some if you wanna frontrun
Push push good old yuro


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  • #29,092
  • Jun 27, 2012 7:59pm Jun 27, 2012 7:59pm
Right an tha face
  • #29,093
  • Jun 27, 2012 8:10pm Jun 27, 2012 8:10pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Push push good old yuro


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39DNaNAMKAU
i present this beautiful piece. pachelbel's canon in d major .

Inserted Video


.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #29,094
  • Jun 27, 2012 8:17pm Jun 27, 2012 8:17pm
roar roar 53

i have some questions. You seem rather convince something bullish is going to happen due to mervyn and/or a host of other factors. Am i wrong in assuming this?

question: How do you plan to trade this thesis?

What time frame do you put on this?

How do you plan to hedge against the event risk of your thesis being wrong?

SISSE thinks parity is going to happen based on the type of rate cut...how did he analyzed this?...by that i mean : x rate cut = this level in the euro. How did he deduced that level from the type of rate cut? I will like to see the math and economic analysis. Whenever people say X rate cut has been priced or not priced into this commodity(currency, stocks, bonds, futures)...i always want to know how they reach that kind of conclusion. Of course, i know that rate cut will throw the euro to parity...that is not my point...but sisse was very specific about specific levels...i will like to see the math and economic analysis.(i can handle the math...i studied advance calculus)

what time frame are we talking about?

At the end of the day...trading is about timing.

any historical analogy will be nice.
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #29,095
  • Jun 27, 2012 8:18pm Jun 27, 2012 8:18pm
Quoting Skynet
i present this beautiful piece. pachelbel's canon in d major .

http://youtu.be/lcJuZIUeBME

.
Nice


I woke up by price alarms keep eyes on 1.2520ish she might get some trouble there again.

Time to take some more zzzzz if market plumits again when wake up i am done with yuro and this range. Keep eyes on 1.0140ish 50 in aud to see if she can come above it for risk still month end ussualy bullish but would see tommorow merkel flys in to maybe spoil everything or she comes with a bleuprint of a integrated political and fiscal union (4th reich) lol whe will see...
  • #29,096
  • Jun 27, 2012 8:31pm Jun 27, 2012 8:31pm
Quoting ingmarforex
Nice


I woke up by price alarms keep eyes on 1.2520ish she might get some trouble there again.

Time to take some more zzzzz if market plumits again when wake up i am done with yuro and this range. Keep eyes on 1.0140ish 50 in aud to see if she can come above it for risk still month end ussualy bullish but would see tommorow merkel flys in to maybe spoil everything or she comes with a bleuprint of a integrated political and fiscal union (4th reich) lol whe will see...
what i will say about the EURO bearish is this:

she needs to take out that level that i mark on the chart before the bearishness can continue. you have a good confluence zone going there.

p.s. when price got to that confluence zone....i wont deny that i was slightly laughing at the bearish that went short around that area...if this were a couple of weeks ago...i would have been on the euranalysis thread talking about a long scalp at that level and i would have gotten a lot of grief for it too from the shorts piling in close to that level. Some trades are not meant to be posted on this forum. If you do, you will stoke people's insecurities and that leads to drama.

check chart below:
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Click to Enlarge Name: 2012-06-27_21-29_OANDA.jpg Size: 60 KB
" It may mean something. It may mean nothing at all "
  • #29,097
  • Edited 9:54pm Jun 27, 2012 8:52pm | Edited 9:54pm
not to be glib but if there is a deal being worked out or a coordinated intervention the banks will be positioned ahead of the market and front run price.

also, if there is a deal made then the central planners will want everyone onside so i expect some kind of advance signals will be given not unlike what happened post jackson hole or post the japan tsuanmi or much like the price signal given jan 3 this year when the market opened with a gap higher off LTRO 1

think primary dealer banks carrying out policy

i think advance signals are already out there........IBEX up off a bottom on a friday morning #28096 european trade prior to the weekend bailout announcement leading all other indexes higher since, and NIRP which was floated today.

besides the trillion of liquidity i think part of the rationale behind introducing NIRP as the next buzzword/acronym is to impress upon the market psychology that there is a policy turn coming that will lead beyond previous interventions.

i may be completely wrong, but that is what i think.....

besides all that bullshit i am still very devoted #28134

best photo of Elvis i have ever seen






Quoting Skynet
roar roar 53

i have some questions. You seem rather convince something bullish is going to happen due to mervyn and/or a host of other factors. Am i wrong in assuming this?

question: How do you plan to trade this thesis?

What time frame do you put on this?

How do you plan to hedge against the event risk of your thesis being wrong?

SISSE thinks parity is going to happen based on the type of rate cut...how did he analyzed this?...by that i mean : x rate cut = this level in the euro. what time frame are we talking about?

At the end of the day...trading...
  • #29,098
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:03pm Jun 27, 2012 9:03pm
...
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  • #29,099
  • Jun 27, 2012 9:47pm Jun 27, 2012 9:47pm
Quoting A-game
..love the thread.
it's magic

http://24.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m5...7xwvo1_500.jpg
  • #29,100
  • Jun 27, 2012 10:56pm Jun 27, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting roro53
it's magic
and you are magician haha
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