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The Really Useless Thread

  • #98,381
  • Jun 27, 2012 5:38am Jun 27, 2012 5:38am
a h close below 2492 may be good for bears for 2463. if not 2521..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,382
  • Jun 27, 2012 5:51am Jun 27, 2012 5:51am
Quoting gatorinla
k, as we talked about.
same #'s here in gold (micros).
i wanted to L near 2432.. missed my entry.. there is still a conflict.. we should have bounced near 2432.. and we did. 2432 is important because a breach will invalidate 2816.5 just on one.. there is still another at 2284. 2280 will probably void 2962.. they are both still valid atm... but a few days ago we have a bear one.. the mid for it was 2463... it says we go to 2368.8 min.. a big fight. with the bulls offering support at/near 2432... and the bears also having its usual rest/bounce at the mid 2467 mofu.. at the same time we are between much larger levels and those levels have micros like 2821 and 2492 being respected.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,383
  • Jun 27, 2012 5:53am Jun 27, 2012 5:53am
Quoting gatorinla
a h close below 2492 may be good for bears for 2463. if not 2521..
Well I think we found a textbook example of perfect price equilibrium ...lol...what a range across the board. Is the flattest European session I remember in a while. I don't even think new years day has such a flat range....

Whatever the case, this is going to blow soon that's for sure.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #98,384
  • Jun 27, 2012 5:59am Jun 27, 2012 5:59am
Quoting gatorinla
a h close below 2492 may be good for bears for 2463. if not 2521..
we may be able to tweak this to 2492.5 +- 92+-93 is safer... close in 1 m
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,385
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:00am Jun 27, 2012 6:00am
sisse and gator

with merkozy bitch (not in her life time) we should go deep south and we are not who is holding the dam fiber
  • #98,386
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:04am Jun 27, 2012 6:04am
Quoting kill56
sisse and gator

with merkozy bitch (not in her life time) we should go deep south and we are not who is holding the dam fiber
maybe kill.....but remember after the japan tsunami and the coordinated intervention
  • #98,387
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:05am Jun 27, 2012 6:05am
Quoting gatorinla
we may be able to tweak this to 2492.5 +- 92+-93 is safer... close in 1 m
to close to call.. it just closed 2492.6 on the one im using. 2492.6 is the exact # on that chart. we may be able to give the bears a tiny slight edge. since it closed .1pip below London open. i wouldn't bet on .1 pip, its so close
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,388
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:06am Jun 27, 2012 6:06am
Quoting roro53
maybe kill.....but remember after the japan tsunami and the coordinated intervention
this way longs are more safer if it happened
  • #98,389
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:07am Jun 27, 2012 6:07am
Quoting kill56
sisse and gator

with merkozy bitch (not in her life time) we should go deep south and we are not who is holding the dam fiber
Yeap, latest development pre summit put a very gloomy outlook. I think both sides (buyers and sellers) are already well positioned ahead of the summit and the rest is well sidelined until the outcome so ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #98,390
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:09am Jun 27, 2012 6:09am
Quoting kill56
sisse and gator

with merkozy bitch (not in her life time) we should go deep south and we are not who is holding the dam fiber
we should.. but a bounce near 2432 was normal. it made 2816 probable. 2962 is still tech wise probable. merkel comments definitely weigh in that. she has just said ., German support is not infinite.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,391
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:18am Jun 27, 2012 6:18am
Quoting sisse
Yeap, latest development pre summit put a very gloomy outlook. I think both sides (buyers and sellers) are already well positioned ahead of the summit and the rest is well sidelined until the outcome so ....

sisse
just speculating but spinning the mood as gloomy into the result may be a part of the perception mgt strategy...lower the expectation bar to boost the run alter...upside surprise.........don't know. just a guess.
  • #98,392
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:25am Jun 27, 2012 6:25am
Quoting roro53
just speculating but spinning the mood as gloomy into the result may be a part of the perception mgt strategy...lower the expectation bar to boost the run alter...upside surprise.........don't know. just a guess.
Sure agree that's definitively on the table. However, IMO this time is a bit different than the last 20 meeting because markets have already lost most of the trust in Germany doing something else and the numbers keep going upside down for Europe so just adding fuel and riding risk before the summit is always the 1st option until they put a decent real option to the other side.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #98,393
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:27am Jun 27, 2012 6:27am
Quoting roro53
just speculating but spinning the mood as gloomy into the result may be a part of the perception mgt strategy...lower the expectation bar to boost the run alter...upside surprise.........don't know. just a guess.
the basic "rule of 72".. says the euro will not be around w/o devalue. german (e central bank) economics in sequence go from 69, 70, 71, 73, 74, 75. and wall street/London ect. sit back and ignore 72 is missing. the bond market sees it buy don't believe the rest are so stupid. ...

the basic "rule of 72" says china will fail to live up to world expectations.

in basic.. "a mule that shits fast, don't shit long"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,394
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:31am Jun 27, 2012 6:31am
Quoting sisse
Sure agree that's definitively on the table. However, IMO this time is a bit different than the last 20 meeting because markets have already lost most of the trust in Germany doing something else and the numbers keep going upside down for Europe so just adding fuel and riding risk before the summit is always the 1st option until they put a decent real option to the other side.

sisse
agree with your take about having to put up a real option this time. there is a lot at stake from EU to China to US.....maybe Germany exits and the ECB prints for all others?

on that note i like short EUR/CHF........SNB in deep already
  • #98,395
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:36am Jun 27, 2012 6:36am


Holy jaysus...still in it? Back to bed. Bollocks to this.

Maybe some US news in an hour will push us beyond this 20 pip shit show....or home sales in 2.5 hours.

Back in a while. GL
  • #98,396
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:42am Jun 27, 2012 6:42am
30 m close was below 87 (lower close)... st small b/o indi... need the h close lower (2492). if we do break 2432... it will be a bull kick in the nutz for 2368...
but they still have lots of support till 2282.. 2328.5 should be one of the larger ones.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,397
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:46am Jun 27, 2012 6:46am
Quoting roro53
agree with your take about having to put up a real option this time. there is a lot at stake from EU to China to US.....maybe Germany exits and the ECB prints for all others?

on that note i like short EUR/CHF........SNB in deep already
Well IMO, the resolution is not coming from doom (risk) but rather from a more basic monetary and strictly FA technical point of view.

The summit will be a 1/2 fluff with the usual sluggish outcome. Germany is taking the decision making no decision. What it means it will never sell internally that ECB should print more money, neither Germany will ever accept looking softer at EU level.

So what they do is force by default the ECB to cut aggressively interest rate to 0 (negative rates) making the periphery "happy", German exports even happier and stock markets across the world enjoying the ride up while devaluing the euro to parity (or slightly lower) on interest rate differential.

Until when? ..well until the US get piss off with the strength of the dollar...currency wars have been in play since 2008, this is just the next level...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #98,398
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:46am Jun 27, 2012 6:46am
Quoting gatorinla
the basic "rule of 72".. says the euro will not be around w/o devalue. german (e central bank) economics in sequence go from 69, 70, 71, 73, 74, 75. and wall street/London ect. sit back and ignore 72 is missing. the bond market sees it buy don't believe the rest are so stupid. ...

the basic "rule of 72" says china will fail to live up to world expectations.

in basic.. "a mule that shits fast, don't shit long"
you are not alone, gator

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...rsation-athens
  • #98,399
  • Jun 27, 2012 7:08am Jun 27, 2012 7:08am
Quoting gatorinla
to close to call.. it just closed 2492.6 on the one im using. 2492.6 is the exact # on that chart. we may be able to give the bears a tiny slight edge. since it closed .1pip below London open. i wouldn't bet on .1 pip, its so close
at the last moments it went higher.. i have a 2492.5 close. still so close it may not help.. looks like a slight bear edge. since below London and 2492.6... but its still so close. besides that, 2432 makes a run limited w/o a break. even if broke we still have a normal bounce potential after break. so at 2401 atr and normal bounce may bring us back. .
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #98,400
  • Jun 27, 2012 7:14am Jun 27, 2012 7:14am
Quoting gatorinla
at the last moments it went higher.. i have a 2492.5 close. still so close it may not help.. looks like a slight bear edge. since below London and 2492.6... but its still so close. besides that, 2432 makes a run limited w/o a break. even if broke we still have a normal bounce potential after break. so at 2401 atr and normal bounce may bring us back. .
looks like 2453 min.. but we may go to 92 first. 2466 mid
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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