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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #34,481
  • Edited 2:18pm Jun 26, 2012 1:55pm | Edited 2:18pm
i am still thinking about the way the politics is trying force an activity.

1st the efsf, thats a scout.
That has marginal success.

Now sending bigger scout ESM.

if bigger scout still fails , then behind is the lender of last resort.
ECB.
because its the resposibility of last resorts activate, when the need is at door.
if ECB , not have enough money to satisfy run on the banks, then they need switch on the printing press. Something they had resisted for long time.

Anyway the outcome would be nearly same.
weaker euro v s v.
Only the path is different.

Only that i find the way they want gambit the ECB distasteful.
politic, is beyond my scope.

but ECB seems ready
the have LTRo and all sorts liquidity plans already on table.

mostly when there is possibility happen, it will.
not a question of WILL?, a question of when?
for now only live firing exercises.



regards
  • #34,482
  • Jun 26, 2012 1:58pm Jun 26, 2012 1:58pm
fti,

You said you were a T1 bank trader.

Please tell me,

Are institutional FX traders allowed to trade privately beside their job? They have a lot of information I assume, they see the order book, have contacts with other people in the industry. It could be called insider trading.
  • #34,483
  • Edited 2:54pm Jun 26, 2012 2:11pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting Forex5050
fti,

You said you were a T1 bank trader.

Please tell me,

Are institutional FX traders allowed to trade privately beside their job? They have a lot of information I assume, they see the order book, have contacts with other people in the industry. It could be called insider trading.
no.
is criminal do so. but can invoke exemption from prosecution cluase.
who are you and whats your reason for asking?

regards

Oh there is no such thing as a T1 bank trader, although some of us does manage sells the bank.
is treasurers/dealers, if you want to open the confidential dossiers. if one can't even deal your terms of employment, what can one deal for the bank? T1 , t2 ...is just the book you dealing. Probably only difference between t1 or t2 is lower teirs swears more.


Inserted Video
  • #34,484
  • Jun 26, 2012 2:16pm Jun 26, 2012 2:16pm
good morning sir, good to see you online at such sinful hours.
  • #34,485
  • Jun 26, 2012 3:13pm Jun 26, 2012 3:13pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
good morning sir, good to see you online at such sinful hours.

ya is a dogs life.
i have some sinful euro crosses deal with.
i like to tp, but seems they stalled here unfinished.
probably manage it more.

regards

but somethings are still happening.
Inserted Video
  • #34,486
  • Jun 26, 2012 3:17pm Jun 26, 2012 3:17pm
Quoting fti

ya is a dogs life.
i have some sinful euro crosses deal with.

regards
dogfights eh ?
  • #34,487
  • Edited 5:40pm Jun 26, 2012 5:17pm | Edited 5:40pm
Quoting fti
????
is not opnions.
i watching euro cable drop, euro yen drops, euro aud drops.
didn't sell any euro crosses?

there is going be wild cards played.
someone who had resigned is being repositioned.
He doesn't want that resposibility, but.........
by someone else. why?

but this says it clear.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=370483

now the only question is the form the euro drop will take.
is either euro drops biog time.
or the same effect can be done by raising all other crossed currencies.

but...
Hi fti
my opinion on a different opinion

Ya,ya "Never do not attack up the hill..." (That's not sarcasm but the rule.)

Rgs
  • #34,488
  • Jun 26, 2012 5:26pm Jun 26, 2012 5:26pm
Quoting fti
such sinister engineering to artificislly support a devalued currency.

the 'smart' kid thinks he has aced.
used long sword options buying paying premiums for time.
causing writers keep buying the euro to hedge.
then the sells euro crosses cabl;e and the yen and swiss and aud
to export infaltion to the other economies that are still productive.

and they think every one is held ransom to stay high to carry them , until they can find way out.
peeps and markets are not stupid la.
once evry one discovers they carring your still born.
then the brick...
I think you're wrong somewhere; basically ESFS issues debt(ok, eur positive, but at the margin - they auctioned so far less than 100bln) and ESM doesn't even exist yet.

there's no firewall(which is, well, the problem ) to manipulate anything. There's an entity with authority to issue debt, but didn't issue too much so far, and an entity that is... going to be approved.

or are you referring to the cb?

p.s. - and imho, that Merkel line is pretty irrelevant. It's Europe here, things have their way Plus, anyway, 1 year before election and to a party meeting, she couldn't say anything else.

p.p.s - I don't know why I'm long eur, but I am(with a stop loss as an exception ). For the record, long meaning I want ~70 pips from here, not that I like euro. But someone is down there.
  • #34,489
  • Jun 26, 2012 5:51pm Jun 26, 2012 5:51pm
you're sayin' deutche, soc gen and the rest?

Quote
to export infaltion to the other economies that are still productive.

this I don't get; usd and eur are both devaluing; it'll export inflation regardless due to them being, what, 70%+ of worldwide currency? There's nothing big enough that can absorb that much in this world.
  • #34,490
  • Jun 26, 2012 6:10pm Jun 26, 2012 6:10pm
Reaction for news:
"Finally. Some common sense. Two minutes later-Merkel denies these statements. 5 minutes later -she confirms this statement. 30 minutes later she denies these statements."

YO HO HO
  • #34,491
  • Jun 26, 2012 6:55pm Jun 26, 2012 6:55pm
Quoting Gro
Reaction for news:
"Finally. Some common sense. Two minutes later-Merkel denies these statements. 5 minutes later -she confirms this statement. 30 minutes later she denies these statements."

YO HO HO
that's why some people have unplug themselves from the system. Welcome to bullshiland
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,492
  • Jun 26, 2012 7:04pm Jun 26, 2012 7:04pm
Quoting luSan
that's why some people have unplug themselves from the system. Welcome to bullshiland


Sky and Land is interest
  • #34,493
  • Jun 26, 2012 9:11pm Jun 26, 2012 9:11pm
Fti,

Do you trade pairs other then the EUR?
  • #34,494
  • Edited 11:39pm Jun 26, 2012 9:54pm | Edited 11:39pm
Quoting snowly

p.p.s - I don't know why I'm long eur, but I am(with a stop loss as an exception ). For the record, long meaning I want ~70 pips from here, not that I like euro. But someone is down there.
eeer, who's down there?

IMHO longs on cable and aud seems ok
longs on euro is risky business.

regards

seems underneath has stones.


ai ya after "time to say Hoodbye" is time sing ...

Inserted Video
  • #34,495
  • Jun 27, 2012 12:43am Jun 27, 2012 12:43am
Hello Fti!
Can you explain this for me? please?

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...6&d=1340775059

This is NOT my chart!!!!!!!

I thought it will make you smile...
  • #34,496
  • Jun 27, 2012 2:33am Jun 27, 2012 2:33am
Quoting fti
no.
is criminal do so. but can invoke exemption from prosecution cluase.
who are you and whats your reason for asking?

regards

Oh there is no such thing as a T1 bank trader, although some of us does manage sells the bank.
is treasurers/dealers, if you want to open the confidential dossiers. if one can't even deal your terms of employment, what can one deal for the bank? T1 , t2 ...is just the book you dealing. Probably only difference between t1 or t2 is lower teirs swears more.

I'm a student and my goal is to apply for a position at the currency desk of an investment bank, when I got my Bachelor's Degree.

I assume that why the bonuses are so high, it keeps the traders from trading privately. How's the situation at hedge funds, can they trade for their own account beside their job?
  • #34,497
  • Jun 27, 2012 3:27am Jun 27, 2012 3:27am
Quoting fti
eeer, who's down there?

IMHO longs on cable and aud seems ok
longs on euro is risky business.
fully agree; but this month I've played only eur/usd(the difference, when scalping 10-20 pips between 1 and 2 as spread, is just huge). Left this one overnight since I had a good profit and left a small bit running overnight(but as an exception - NY closes, I'm squared normally).

however, talking about aud and gbp - interesting divergence - gbp/aud goes up, eur/aud goes down(long term I used to trade those two alot, so I'm watching them by habit - think it's a 1st in a long time when those 2 diverge significantly).
  • #34,498
  • Jun 27, 2012 6:56am Jun 27, 2012 6:56am
What's up with the market? Is it waiting for something?
  • #34,499
  • Jun 27, 2012 8:58am Jun 27, 2012 8:58am
Quoting duyk20
What's up with the market? Is it waiting for something?
They are meeting to convince Germany to forgive their debts. They call it "Debt sharing". Of course, it will happen if they surrender their economies to Berlin. The south becoming financial slave of the north. Social unrest in air. I say,dump the euro till end of time. Cheers, where is my drink? Ugg,...
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #34,500
  • Edited 10:20am Jun 27, 2012 10:10am | Edited 10:20am
Quoting luSan
They are meeting to convince Germany to forgive their debts. They call it "Debt sharing". Of course, it will happen if they surrender their economies to Berlin. The south becoming financial slave of the north. Social unrest in air. I say,dump the euro till end of time. Cheers, where is my drink? Ugg,...
eeer, no get so rigid, my friend.

Aud still can buy, UK still can buy,
the rest we see.

Germany could bring euro hold to 1.25 for eternity, and if uk politics smart
they can climb back to about 1.6

I think i gonna start fortune telling stall, next life.
seems will have much customers.
every one like tell fortune.

best bets, sell the euro crosses.
or be very long anything other than usd and euro.

To morrow is big day.
Fortune telling lines says Germany will will win 27 to 1.
and all the little apple can chose be eaqten or rot.

i love see euro above 1.3 and watch them 26 rigid brains rot 1 by 1.



regards
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