Fail Better

TP reached (even on demo I will never ever hold over the weekend again ... even though it worked out THIS time)

Now long usdjpy @ 79.84. SL 79.48, TP 80.48?

closing trade. Wait till 79.30 ...

It was worth a shot, solid level, just didn't fly this time.

I shoot low and expect a 70% hit ratio on these bounce levels...essentially, I expect one in three to fail. No big deal, just move on to the next, keep your risk in check and the rest will come together. If we have the opportunity to close our losses a little early, like on this UJ, even better.

Pls clarify what you mean by shoot low?
cheers
novice198

I wouldn't be surprised if the hit ratio is higher, perhaps 75%. I call it at around 70% for my own purposes.

watch out the levels

I took the USD/JPY long trade on the first time back retest of 79.76 today. I narrowly avoided being stopped out, but have now closed for a 10 pip loss or 0.2R

Had I been around to monitor it I probably would have pulled the order when it rallied 2 pips from my level to 79.90, over halfway to my FTA. Secondly, following Tom's rules I should have then exited at 79.50 when price rallied into the level, found resistance 4 pips from it, and then dropped and closed below the previous low - see orange dotted line on the second chart.

But I wasn't around to monitor it, so I did neither of those things, and let the trade run its course. Having avoided being stopped out, I take the view that it isn't likely to get back above the level anytime in the immediate future for two reasons:

1. It has consistently found resistance in the 79.60s today;
2. A Bearish Engulfing has now formed on the D1.

I therefore exited at market at 79.66.






Incidentally the D1 bearish bar means that I am now looking for a short entry off the 80.02 level (which had been my target for the long trade) - see chart 3. As there is D1 bias I am looking at a D1 target

Nice work managing that one Matt.

Revising my USD/JPY sell order - now looking for a retest off 79.42

@ matt

"A Bearish Engulfing has now formed on the D1."

in my opinion it is not a bearish engulfing pattern

best regards

EU short

why ??

Thanks astock.

I'm never quite sure what the terminology is for the sort of bar I am referring to. I mean that the high extended beyond the high of the previous day and it closed below the low of the previous day. This is one oe the patterns which I believe Tom looks for to determine daily bias.

Looks like a BE

that's why...

thanks a lot, now i got it.

best regards

Nice sfp on usdchf

Generally Tom wants to see 3 clear touches to enter blindly.If he has 2 touches he looks for one element of confluence( ATR,Fib level or daily bias).If he has only 1 touch as previous res/sup he looks for 2 factors of confluence.

I agree, yes not easy when you're not at the screen.

It was a loser for me too.

Even A+ grade trades can sh*t on us sometimes.