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  • #47,661
  • Jun 23, 2012 5:17am Jun 23, 2012 5:17am
Quoting DaddyBear
Aussie is forming a triangle. Downside risk is more than 50% at this point.
When I posted this message, there was a shower head image in my mind.
Attached Image
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,662
  • Edited 10:18am Jun 23, 2012 5:26am | Edited 10:18am
Quoting DaddyBear
When I posted this message, there was a shower head image in my mind.
Since then, Aussie has been taking a shower on an uneven shower pan. What's next?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Shower.JPG Size: 60 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,663
  • Jun 23, 2012 6:53am Jun 23, 2012 6:53am
Quoting in4ex-5
For short term trading you can observe the Globex ES futures contract a.k.a. the "e-mini" S&P 500. The next best alternative is the SPY(an ETF that equates to the S&P 500). Overlay those together with the the AU and the Dollar Index.

freestockcharts has the SPY/Dollar/AU. But the Dollar(DXY0) only works on setting of 'daily' or higher. If anyone knows free 'realtime' site where you can get the true ES/DX/AU less than daily settings please let us know.

The above presents the question, "does the AU follow the ES/SPY or is it the opposite?"....
Try netdania.com, Register for free and you get an impressive array of charts in realtime including all currencies, indexes, commodoties and lots of equities too.
  • #47,664
  • Jun 23, 2012 7:37am Jun 23, 2012 7:37am
Quoting DaddyBear
Since that time, Aussie has been taking a shower on an uneven shower pan. What's next?
Good to see you around DaddyBear! I liked that shower chart... price did made a dip after it showed up when we got a market close below it, we are now a little delayed on our way down when we hit the 100 and 200 EMA in tandem with the big 1.0000 parity psychological number, 1.0070 is a previous support spot now converted into a resistance one.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_xoywwxye9...06-23+-+01.gif

50 EMA is above us pretty much the same level than the golden trendline, as I see it, price retested it after a break but we were left trapped between the confluencing indicators on both sides, I personally would wait for a close below the EMAs and the 1.000 before going for a short on the 4 hourly since my trend on daily is downtrend still.
  • #47,665
  • Edited 10:23am Jun 23, 2012 10:10am | Edited 10:23am
Quoting Eric D
Good to see you around DaddyBear! I liked that shower chart... price did made a dip after it showed up when we got a market close below it, we are now a little delayed on our way down when we hit the 100 and 200 EMA in tandem with the big 1.0000 parity psychological number, 1.0070 is a previous support spot now converted into a resistance one.

50 EMA is above us pretty much the same level than the golden trendline, as I see it,...
Eric,

Very nice analysis. I like the way you described the current Aussie movement with a "trapping" concept.

The parity is significant because it is the initial Fibonacci number; however, it is not a rigid line. The law of the market gives it certain elasticity like a rubber band. The range of such elasticity depends on the strength of the market moves. When the range is overextended, the consequence will be a thrust described by R.N. Elliott.

I trade Forex market with two approaches: The complicated EW principle and a child's simple mindset. The shower image is a reflection of a child's simple mindset.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,666
  • Jun 23, 2012 10:16am Jun 23, 2012 10:16am
Quoting jayjb
Because your crystal ball told you?

Nobody has a crystal ball; however, history repeats itself so does the market.

Regarding the crystal ball, Daytrader74 may have one inside his portable toilet.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,667
  • Jun 23, 2012 10:27am Jun 23, 2012 10:27am
Quoting DaddyBear
Nobody has a crystal ball; however, history repeats itself so does the market.

Regarding the crystal ball, Daytrader74 may have one inside his portable toilet.
Seems to me, Daytrader74 sometimes did not clean his ball before looking into the future.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,668
  • Jun 23, 2012 10:35am Jun 23, 2012 10:35am
Quoting Eric D
Good to see you around DaddyBear! I liked that shower chart... price did made a dip after it showed up when we got a market close below it, we are now a little delayed on our way down when we hit the 100 and 200 EMA in tandem with the big 1.0000 parity psychological number, 1.0070 is a previous support spot now converted into a resistance one.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_xoywwxye9...06-23+-+01.gif

50 EMA is above us pretty much the same level than the golden trendline, as I see it,...

I agree with your price levels, I am bearish and I think there might be a throwback sequence with sudden short squeezes only to be faded by market makers even lower to more stable bids
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud_usd_15min_tape_possible_sequence.jpg Size: 75 KB
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #47,669
  • Jun 23, 2012 10:59am Jun 23, 2012 10:59am
Quoting djambazov84
I agree with your price levels, I am bearish and I think there might be a throwback sequence with sudden short squeezes only to be faded by market makers even lower to more stable bids
Good analysis. Did you misplace Wave 3 and Wave 4 on your chart? At this point, although the move was impulsive and in a 5-wave format, it was still an initial corrective wave of a larger corrective move. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,670
  • Jun 23, 2012 11:31am Jun 23, 2012 11:31am
Quoting djambazov84
I agree with your price levels, I am bearish and I think there might be a throwback sequence with sudden short squeezes only to be faded by market makers even lower to more stable bids
Great!, I have studied a little on the Elliot Wave analysis and I'm not expert at all, both approaches agreed however by what I see on your chart and that's a plus, it's nice and clear to understand.

I am also waiting for a second leg to form south so I can short when the setup appears on confluence.
  • #47,671
  • Jun 23, 2012 11:34am Jun 23, 2012 11:34am
Quoting DaddyBear
Good analysis. Did you misplace Wave 3 and Wave 4 on your chart? At this point, although the move was impulsive and in a 5-wave format, it was still an initial corrective wave of a larger corrective move. -IMHO-

correct 3 is on top
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #47,672
  • Jun 23, 2012 11:38am Jun 23, 2012 11:38am
Quoting DaddyBear
Eric,
...

I trade Forex market with two approaches: The complicated EW principle and a child's simple mindset. The shower image is a reflection of a child's simple mindset.
I believe trading with a child's simple mindset will give you a strong edge on the markets DaddyBear, simple thought is hard to achieve especially when your money is on the table, keeping a clear mind that way is wise when you need to take action in accordance with a complicated chart reading strategy as stated on your first approach, that's why I loved the shower drawing of yours.
  • #47,673
  • Jun 23, 2012 12:40pm Jun 23, 2012 12:40pm
Quoting Eric D
I believe trading with a child's simple mindset will give you a strong edge on the markets DaddyBear, simple thought is hard to achieve especially when your money is on the table, keeping a clear mind that way is wise when you need to take action in accordance with a complicated chart reading strategy as stated on your first approach, that's why I loved the shower drawing of yours.
I found a book supporting my mindset approach today.
http://www.amazon.com/Mindset-The-Ne.../dp/1400062756

A chart has abundant hidden information. A child's simple mindset is the key to decipher the complicated market moves. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,674
  • Jun 23, 2012 6:05pm Jun 23, 2012 6:05pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I found a book supporting my mindset approach today.
http://www.amazon.com/Mindset-The-Ne.../dp/1400062756

A chart has abundant hidden information. A child's simple mindset is the key to decipher the complicated market moves. -IMHO-

a whimsical child`s mind, uninhibited by judgement and too much logic, I have traded since 2006 and I have to tell you intraday market structure has changed a lot in terms of its intrinsic volatility. remember the 300pip/day GBP/JPY ? moves 1/3rd of it right now, which in simple mathematics means that trends are going to occur 2/3rds less and are 2/3rds shorter in length, if sweap about h4/daily directional trends, only ADD kids can make money best today in this environment because they have no allegiance to anything and can switch their intentions on a dime

I trade options for a small hedge fund and from what I have noticed is that the majority of big time flow is selling volatility in everything through options, which means that people are betting on tighter ranges and are not affraid of trends THAT much anymore, they prefer to collect the premium of an option rather than bet on trends (buying options)

aud/usd for one is a pair with a nice market structure and respects levels quite precisely most of the time, and its high to low average daily movement in pips is one of the highest in forex, which makes it an attractive pair to trade in volatility and simple directional terms, remember carry play is also involved in this pair and market makers and banks would always try to mess around with hedge funds on the other spectrum of the game when NY is about to close and ozzi is about to roll over into next day

banks(dealers) slam the pair down in the closing minutes not to allow hedge funds to buy the pair for 5-10 minutes and thus collect overnight swap
crazy kinds of games are played exactly at that time when trading desks restart their systems, usually around 5:55 pm NY time you can get a pretty good deal out of money hungry fat bastards chasing to collect swap overnight rate versus their over leveraged position
Thank you Malcolm, Belekas, Jim, raczekfx and Ryanmcd !
  • #47,675
  • Jun 23, 2012 7:24pm Jun 23, 2012 7:24pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Seems to me, Daytrader74 sometimes did not clean his ball before looking into the future.
How did you know Daddddy
  • #47,676
  • Edited 9:21pm Jun 23, 2012 7:28pm | Edited 9:21pm
Quoting djambazov84
a whimsical child`s mind, uninhibited by judgement and too much logic, I have traded since 2006 and I have to tell you intraday market structure has changed a lot in terms of its intrinsic volatility. remember the 300pip/day GBP/JPY ? moves 1/3rd of it right now, which in simple mathematics means that trends are going to occur 2/3rds less and are 2/3rds shorter in length, if sweap about h4/daily directional trends, only ADD kids can make money best today in this environment because they have no allegiance to anything and can switch their intentions on a dime

I trade options for a small hedge fund and from what I have noticed is that the majority of big time flow is selling volatility in everything through options, which means that people are betting on tighter ranges and are not affraid of trends THAT much anymore, they prefer to collect the premium of an option rather than bet on trends (buying options)

aud/usd for one is a pair with a nice market structure and respects levels quite precisely most of the time, and its high to low average daily movement in pips is one of the highest in forex, which makes it an attractive pair to trade in volatility and simple directional terms, remember carry play is also involved in this pair and market makers and banks would always try to mess around with hedge funds on the other spectrum of the game when NY is about to close and ozzi is about to roll over into next day

banks(dealers) slam the pair down in the closing minutes not to allow hedge funds to buy the pair for 5-10 minutes and thus collect overnight swap
crazy kinds of games are played exactly at that time when trading desks restart their systems, usually around 5:55 pm NY time you can get a pretty good deal out of money hungry fat bastards chasing to collect swap overnight rate versus their over leveraged position
It is a good article to read about your background and thoughts. I believe you are a pro.

I have traded since 1998 including stocks, options and Forex markets. I have worked for myself for more than 20 years. Currently, I am managing my clients' Forex accounts, however, I am neither a pro nor a trader. I am a speculator.

I have good understanding of technical analysis but I prefer to express my thoughts in a simple way. Personally, I don't like to read lengthy and dry articles. Trading is stressful. Why would I add more stress to myself by reading those messages?

Seeing the market with a child's mind is not whimsical. I am still learning how to get rid of all kind of man-made rules and concepts from my brain. When I can see the market with a child's simple mind, I would be a master. -IMHO-
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,677
  • Jun 23, 2012 7:36pm Jun 23, 2012 7:36pm
Quoting DaddyBear
It is a good article to read about your background and thoughts. I believe you are a pro.

I have traded since 1998 including stocks, options and Forex markets. I have worked for myself for more than 20 years. Currently, I am managing my clients' Forex accounts, however, I am neither a pro nor a trader. I am a speculator.

I have good understanding of technical analysis but I prefer to express my thoughts in a simple way. Personally, I don't like to read lengthy and dry articles. Trading is stressful. Why would I add more stress to myself by reading...
After defeated by bears on Thursday, bulls regrouped and tried to retake 1.01 Ht. While eating grass at 1.007 Ht., bulls were surprised that airborne bears came on Friday afternoon. Story developing ........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.01 HEIGHT.JPG Size: 85 KB
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,678
  • Edited 8:27pm Jun 23, 2012 7:54pm | Edited 8:27pm
Quoting DaddyBear
After defeated by bears on Thursday, bulls regrouped and tried to retake 1.01 Ht. While eating grass at 1.007 Ht., bulls were surprised that airborne bears came on Friday afternoon. Story developing ........
u got a V for drawing a shower head, an i get a hate message for showing a 15k pip count for this month...whats up with that!?

that is a funny picture though..
  • #47,679
  • Edited Jun 24, 2012 12:44am Jun 23, 2012 8:39pm | Edited Jun 24, 2012 12:44am
Quoting Silencer
u got a V for drawing a shower head, an i get a hate message for showing a 15k pip count for this month...whats up with that!?
Young man, let me put in this way. I am sharing my thoughts in a simple and implicit way to help newbies who have no clues about Forex market and technical analysis. If they can read my mind and make a good judgement with their own thinking, they would find their own way to learn the right way to trade the Forex market. In the meantime, writing simple messages, which may be childish to some pro in this forum, helps me reduce my trading stress.

On the other hand, your showing of a 15k pip count for this month was looking for a return such as others' praises or acclamations. When most people are losing their money in the Forex market, your showing was like rubbing salt into somebody's wounds.

'You shall love your neighbor as yourself.' -Mark 12:31-

- IMHO - DB
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,680
  • Jun 23, 2012 9:00pm Jun 23, 2012 9:00pm
Will the Aussie go up or down in the opening 2moro morning and why?
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