Sublime
james16 Chart Thread
- #113,561
- Jun 22, 2012 4:24am Jun 22, 2012 4:24am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Signed In | 5,309 Posts
- #113,564
- Jun 22, 2012 4:37am Jun 22, 2012 4:37am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
USD/CAD
this one looks ugly so far...but i am convinced about this setup. Otherwise i will accept a big loss
my observations:
there was no price action setup. u sold around the break of 1.0200?
the move below 1.0200 was weak. less than 50 pips. PLUS, 1.0200 did not hold as resistance (when it bounced from 1.0150-ish). that should've been a warning sign for you.
H&S patterns do NOT always materialize like the way authors say it in trading books.
it is just a pattern. a pattern can get fulfilled, or not.
on top of that, patterns are subjective. if u want to trade patterns, make sure MOST people are seeing what u are seeing.
also, your stop loss is around 250 pips away from entry. your target is 150 pips from entry.
why are u prepared to take a massive loss if ever?
Please consider exiting around 1.0300 (a strong move through it or if it acts as Resistance)
if you want to ride this out towards 1.0400 with a floating loss, please do so with a very small position.
Hope this helps
- #113,565
- Jun 22, 2012 4:47am Jun 22, 2012 4:47am
ugly price action
who's in your avatar? i get distracted
that is possible. 1 of many possibilities
- #113,567
- Jun 22, 2012 4:50am Jun 22, 2012 4:50am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
USD/JPY
waiting to pinbar get broke
this is a relatively small pinbar. please compare its size to the prior bullish bars & the upmove from 79.00.
I do hope your trades work out well for you, but please make sure to play with odds in your favor. try as much as u can to trade only the best trade setups, the best pinbars, etc.
nice target. much tighter stop loss compared to your usdcad trade.
but price must go through 80.00 first. Good luck Sir!
- #113,568
- Jun 22, 2012 4:52am Jun 22, 2012 4:52am
- Joined Oct 2010 | Status: full time beer drinker | 1,345 Posts
u made a tricky trade, IMHO.
my observations:
there was no price action setup. u sold around the break of 1.0200?
the move below 1.0200 was weak. less than 50 pips. PLUS, 1.0200 did not hold as resistance (when it bounced from 1.0150-ish). that should've been a warning sign for you.
H&S patterns do NOT always materialize like the way authors say it in trading books.
it is just a pattern. a pattern can get fulfilled, or not.
on top of that, patterns are subjective. if u want to trade patterns, make sure MOST people are seeing what...
but i`ve entered that tread not on the H&S pattern alone but after the weekly pin was formed. H&S was a sing of confluence for me. I know this pin is not on swing high and doesn't look what james teaches. And i adapt my SL, set above the ugly pin.
Thanks a lot man for your view
- #113,569
- Jun 22, 2012 4:54am Jun 22, 2012 4:54am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
She's one of my "trading buddies"
Great, NOW, Which possibility would you like - Orange or Blue?
that chart is not fair. your blue line is much nearer to current price than the orange line.
3000 then if that does not hold probably 2300 - 2500.
ok. if i get this right u have to introduce me to her.
- #113,570
- Jun 22, 2012 4:58am Jun 22, 2012 4:58am
Can I have her as a trading buddy too
that chart is not fair. your blue line is much nearer to current price than the orange line.
3000 then if that does not hold probably 2300 - 2500.
ok. if i get this right u have to introduce me to her.
, we'll meet here:
- #113,572
- Jun 22, 2012 5:07am Jun 22, 2012 5:07am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
thanks dude,
but i`ve entered that tread not on the H&S pattern alone but after the weekly pin was formed. H&S was a sing of confluence for me. I know this pin is not on swing high and doesn't look what james teaches. And i adapt my SL, set above the ugly pin.
Thanks a lot man for your view
u shouldn't!some people call that 2-bar candle as a 'railroad track'.
it is a 2-candle Pinbar in my eyes.
but understand that not all pinbars work, regardless of the size
based on the weekly chart, see the fifth candle from the right?
that candle's low (1.0160-ish) could've been used as your target/FTA..
it may still work out for you, but the question is which will get hit first? your target area or your stop loss area?
as a trader, we should try to minimize risk.
I am not sure what your risk tolerance is, but 250pips stop loss is pretty big.
I remember Sir James get out of trades with 30-50pip stop loss (please correct me if i am wrong). what i am trying to say is he manages his risk really closely. aside from that he is very picky with his trades.
what u should do is pick the very best setups & manage risk.
your stop loss, IMHO, should not be static or set in stone. if u see a trade going against u & u feel that it will continue to go against u, it is better to exit than wait for your very distant stop loss to get hit.
if u want to trade a large stop loss, that is perfectly OK, but u have to pick the best setups & as much as possible trade a small position until such time u really do well with such trades.
- #113,573
- Jun 22, 2012 5:09am Jun 22, 2012 5:09am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,122 Posts
Chanya, your levels were great at the time they were formed. .(the 1.6148 on your chart) .trading right into some nice Space . .(a trade I took . .hit the targets nicely) but as Price gathers around these levels in the future, they lose there effectiveness (Traffic). . that's why you can't figure out those bars at those past levels. Then, new levels are formed . . 1.6088 / 1.6081 LCS levels . .trading into Space.
Human
- #113,574
- Jun 22, 2012 5:10am Jun 22, 2012 5:10am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
Sure thing
I'll save up & u should invite me. I think I need a visa to get there.
she can pose as my fiance jjust so i can get a tour or permanent visa
I'm from the Philippines. Aussie land is just a few hours away, you know
- #113,575
- Jun 22, 2012 5:12am Jun 22, 2012 5:12am
- Joined Feb 2009 | Status: Borderline yahoo & oh-no! | 6,607 Posts
How are you coming to these price targets? It's looks a bit random. Can you redraw with the resistance levels, fib retracement / trendlines?
- #113,576
- Jun 22, 2012 5:17am Jun 22, 2012 5:17am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Signed In | 5,309 Posts
Very Lame Pin Bar forming at a heavily Confluence area ( BEOB at H4 which also just broke ) ... But I doubt It will take us further down then the yellow area .... Will enter when it breaks after close and will move to BE as soon as I can ...
- #113,577
- Jun 22, 2012 5:17am Jun 22, 2012 5:17am
- Joined Sep 2010 | Status: Trader | 1,122 Posts
The "yellow zone" is the target(s) . .pervious bar Highs . .did you take profit???
Human
- #113,578
- Jun 22, 2012 5:19am Jun 22, 2012 5:19am
- | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: shoe shine boy | 1,146 Posts
USD/CAD
this one looks ugly so far
Attachment
- #113,579
- Jun 22, 2012 5:20am Jun 22, 2012 5:20am
How are you coming to these price targets? It's looks a bit random. Can you redraw with the resistance levels, fib retracement / trendlines?
Here are a few subtle clues that I kinda noticed. I have tried to keep everything as close to Mike and Jim's methodology as possible so I hope it makes some sense here for you.
Best
V
edit- but then again, the whole thing can also shoot straight up north if you also assume that our sellers at the 1.5800 BRN have already been consumed by the buyers at the spinningtop/pinbar/bigdoji two candles ago that nearly spiked the 1.5800 level so the least path of resistance could be on the upside. But then again, this is almost the same kind of pattern that we can see on the Aussie SPI200 Daily stock chart as well so it's probably MUCH safer to wait for a break or at least some bigger clues after either one of your baby blue trendlines get broken, like Mike teaches.
- #113,580
- Jun 22, 2012 5:22am Jun 22, 2012 5:22am
- Joined Jun 2012 | Status: Signed In | 5,309 Posts
Sure thing C
Here are a few subtle clues that I kinda noticed. I have tried to keep everything as close to Mike and Jim's methodology as possible so I hope it makes some sense here for you.
Best
V