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AUD/USD

  • #47,601
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:43pm Jun 21, 2012 3:43pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Don't overreach. Overreaching == No Fear == Greed

I guess you understand http://www.forexfactory.com/nfs/cust...ar134349_2.gif.
1.00287 is the daily low and probably the weekly low as well.
daddybearforex. com
  • #47,602
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:45pm Jun 21, 2012 3:45pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
s&p also had a nice bounce off the 61fib from its apr-june drop
we are +100 now...hope u diddnt close it ? :-)
  • #47,603
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:49pm Jun 21, 2012 3:49pm
I think that bull can start now...usdollar index is almost at yearly resistance,so it must go down...take a look:

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdan...OLLAR|fxcm_cfd
  • #47,604
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:50pm Jun 21, 2012 3:50pm
if gold buyers dont get excited an it holds near the bottom, or where its at, i think aud will follow an should go to atleast the 98s possibly
  • #47,605
  • Jun 21, 2012 3:55pm Jun 21, 2012 3:55pm
Quoting Silencer
we are +100 now...hope u diddnt close it ? :-)
i got out at 0057 for some nice bank. i'm currently long at 0039 so we'll see what happens. when'd you get in on the short?
  • #47,606
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:04pm Jun 21, 2012 4:04pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
i got out at 0057 for some nice bank. i'm currently long at 0039 so we'll see what happens. when'd you get in on the short?
1.02045 and 1.01952

GL
  • #47,607
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:06pm Jun 21, 2012 4:06pm
Quoting Pokrajac
I think that bull can start now...usdollar index is almost at yearly resistance,so it must go down...take a look:

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdan...OLLAR|fxcm_cfd
why can't it be 10,220?
All is possible
  • #47,608
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:15pm Jun 21, 2012 4:15pm
Quoting Silencer
1.02045 and 1.01952

GL
attaboy. you may get another run after moody's news comes out, but it'll be short-lived as most of it is priced in (according to the talking heads).
  • #47,609
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:19pm Jun 21, 2012 4:19pm
Quoting Pokrajac
I think that bull can start now...usdollar index is almost at yearly resistance,so it must go down...take a look:

http://www.dailyfx.com/charts/netdaniachart/?symbol=USDOLLAR|fxcm_cfd
in case you don't know, that's the FXCM dollar index, not the dollar index used by the mass, which is Dow Jones i think?
  • #47,610
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:24pm Jun 21, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting HotBiscuits
Agreed.


and just wondering, do you still disagree with me when I said AUD was looking like a great buy at 96xx?
You? The only people I remember wanting to go long at that price was DB and DT on a weekend when price wasn't moving and there wasn't any confirmation from PA.
  • #47,611
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:24pm Jun 21, 2012 4:24pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
attaboy. you may get another run after moody's news comes out, but it'll be short-lived as most of it is priced in (according to the talking heads).

im just following gold, if you got a xau/usd chart, have a look u can see it rallied to the point to where aud made the 50bps cut, it looks like the 1.02 level on a aud chart, an then aud started to follow not long after, gold took the lead and aud followed, thats y im hoping gold will stay put because if it does, aud will most likely follow...
  • #47,612
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:42pm Jun 21, 2012 4:42pm
Just curious, do you know if there any estimated average time frame of how long it takes for AUD to react after Gold rallies?

Quoting Silencer
im just following gold, if you got a xau/usd chart, have a look u can see it rallied to the point to where aud made the 50bps cut, it looks like the 1.02 level on a aud chart, an then aud started to follow not long after, gold took the lead and aud followed, thats y im hoping gold will stay put because if it does, aud will most likely follow...
  • #47,613
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:46pm Jun 21, 2012 4:46pm
Quoting Silencer
im just following gold, if you got a xau/usd chart, have a look u can see it rallied to the point to where aud made the 50bps cut, it looks like the 1.02 level on a aud chart, an then aud started to follow not long after, gold took the lead and aud followed, thats y im hoping gold will stay put because if it does, aud will most likely follow...
i attached the chart. aussie's in brown, gold's candle.

I certainly agree there's a correlation. I don't really recognize this rally you're talking about before the rate cut. Both AUD and gold spiked beforehand, aussie just had a bigger drop after. At the same time, seems like today's drop in gold is much more extreme than aussie's was. I don't really rely much on the extremities of correlations, just the direction. with that said, gold does seem like it hit a support. a minor one, but support nonetheless.

we shall see....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.jpg Size: 209 KB
  • #47,614
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:54pm Jun 21, 2012 4:54pm
Quoting mikeylp
why can't it be 10,220?
All is possible
Sure it is...but it is cca 50 usd till that value (10220),and audusd droped around 180 pips today for 120 usd growth of usd index...so,if usd index touch 10220,audusd will be around 0.9960-0.9980 max...however,it is small possibility for that,I think that bear is done... :-) ...but in fx...we never know :-)


Thank you for your comment anyway!
  • #47,615
  • Jun 21, 2012 4:56pm Jun 21, 2012 4:56pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
in case you don't know, that's the FXCM dollar index, not the dollar index used by the mass, which is Dow Jones i think?
You are right,but I am using them for a long time and it helps me a lot...
  • #47,616
  • Jun 21, 2012 5:30pm Jun 21, 2012 5:30pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
i attached the chart. aussie's in brown, gold's candle.

I certainly agree there's a correlation. I don't really recognize this rally you're talking about before the rate cut. Both AUD and gold spiked beforehand, aussie just had a bigger drop after. At the same time, seems like today's drop in gold is much more extreme than aussie's was. I don't really rely much on the extremities of correlations, just the direction. with that said, gold does seem like it hit a support. a minor one, but support nonetheless.

we shall see....
nah i ment after the 50bps cut an the fall of most majors vs the usd, the rally that gold had, happened before the rally of aud, an it was back to the point of where the 1.02 area looked like on the aud chart, it might have been the QE3 scare on gold that made me think the aud would rally but it was good enough for me to catch a 100+ trade...

the euro is another 1 ikeep close eye on..also kiwi an the pound, they all move roughly the same, its the only pairs i trade, euro shorts seem the most profitable atm an kiwis have been the least profitable, who ever is the weakest or strongest performer, i like to get in onit, or try get them all :-)
  • #47,617
  • Jun 21, 2012 7:09pm Jun 21, 2012 7:09pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...04#post5778904

We saw how yesterday's price action formed a triangle really close to the support resistance on the 1.0220 and we were waiting for some confirmation by a break up or down it, market delivered to us today as it is seen on the next chart:

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yJAoYb3-3f...06-21+-+01.gif

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...67#post5778967

I think it was a neat touch of resistance reacting to the 200 EMA almost to the pip, besides a somewhat odd but nevertheless divergence was forming yesterday and now the CCI has even closed below the overbought area.
  • #47,618
  • Jun 21, 2012 8:08pm Jun 21, 2012 8:08pm
it took about 8 hours of bear gains to take out 80 hours of bull gains :-)
  • #47,619
  • Jun 21, 2012 9:17pm Jun 21, 2012 9:17pm
Just offering a different perspective...maybe more of a Fundamental Correlated one! The AU has been running with the US stock market for some time now. The CU has been the place to go on days like today(safe haven).

Was short AU 1.01685 covered at 1.00520.
Was long CU 1.02050 sold 1.02801 (not on chart)

1 week hourly bars
Legend:
Red/green: ES-S&P 500 e-mini futures(scale on right side)
AUD is the white running through middle
Orange is the S&P 500 Index (SPX)
Purple is the Dow Jones 30 Index (INDU)
Blue is USD Index (DX) on bottom.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud-ES-DX-INDU-SPX.gif Size: 32 KB

chart from Interactive Brokers
  • #47,620
  • Jun 21, 2012 10:39pm Jun 21, 2012 10:39pm
check out my friends awsome pips this month, hes also 89 trades in a row!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15kjune.gif Size: 9 KB
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