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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #28,621
  • Jun 19, 2012 9:57pm Jun 19, 2012 9:57pm
Quoting roro53
i wonder if they are career babes?

http://www.hazeldooney.com/admin/fil...Qs-Counsel.jpg
The Chonchy
  • #28,622
  • Jun 19, 2012 9:59pm Jun 19, 2012 9:59pm
Quoting roro53
hi,

depends what the news is tomorrow......the bet is Mervyn King is signaling a coordinated and fairly massive central bank intervention with the caveat that it is likely to be promised in stages imo.

if King is thrown under the bus tomorrow and the FED does not come with some expansion of stimulus then the market may sell off

the odds are the whole G20/10 FED BOJ BOE ECB and whatever is part bluff and part real so there may probably be some whipsaws until the market prices the FOMC statement, and decides a bias.

the odds are also that...

.........Yes in deed, it all depend in tomorrow's news, let see how they roll.......like my friend Turtle used to say.......
The Chonchy
  • #28,623
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:06pm Jun 19, 2012 10:06pm
......Slotwinar don't be shy, post a chart or a chic.........we don't bite here, just roro53 but is not here now..........
The Chonchy
  • #28,624
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:07pm Jun 19, 2012 10:07pm
.........hello Smikester.......
The Chonchy
  • #28,625
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:08pm Jun 19, 2012 10:08pm
Quoting petehnm
Hello Gentleman..I didn't read the beginning of this thread so if there are posting restrictions I appolgize...yummy to all the women posted here...well done...I have a trade going on... wanted to get some feedback...going on the buy the rumor sell news thing...what do you guys think...anyone that posts the kind of kitty kats that you guys do can't be to bad...


Attachment
You're welcome. Posting restrictions? Hmm. I'm surprised no one here's been arrested yet - that's all. I think we may even be allowed to post charts for what it's worth. I only post simple ones that even I can understand. Condor tells me fundamentals are more important than technicals at the moment but I say rolll on 1.19:

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Gone to a better place
  • #28,626
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:09pm Jun 19, 2012 10:09pm
Quoting smikester
Bohogirl was good fun on this thread. We were all so shocked we had a woman on the thread we bored her by being too polite I think.

..........yeah i remember her, she was a nice girl in deed, always traveling I remember her.........
The Chonchy
  • #28,627
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:10pm Jun 19, 2012 10:10pm
Quoting chonchy
.........hello Smikester.......
Hello Chonchy....

You're up late, I'm up early...
Gone to a better place
  • #28,628
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:11pm Jun 19, 2012 10:11pm
Quoting smikester
You're welcome. Posting restrictions? Hmm. I'm surprised no one here's been arrested yet - that's all. I think we may even be allowed to post charts for what it's worth. I only post simple ones that even I can understand. Condor tells me fundamentals are more important than technicals at the moment but I say rolll on 1.19:

Attachment
.............1.21 first you will think, right?.........
The Chonchy
  • #28,629
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:14pm Jun 19, 2012 10:14pm
Quoting smikester
Hello Chonchy....

You're up late, I'm up early...
.........No, I just wake up for london, earlie I should say, I have sleep in terms of 2 hours tree times today, I could'n sleep well, blood pressure a bit hight with all the drinking on father's day and too much eating lately also with all the news conmotions and now feds news tomorrow and my shorts down there, and people knoking in four five door, imagine.......too much going on to sleep well..........
The Chonchy
  • #28,630
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:18pm Jun 19, 2012 10:18pm
Quoting petehnm
Hello Gentleman..I didn't read the beginning of this thread so if there are posting restrictions I appolgize...yummy to all the women posted here...well done...I have a trade going on... wanted to get some feedback...going on the buy the rumor sell news thing...what do you guys think...anyone that posts the kind of kitty kats that you guys do can't be to bad...


Attachment
........The restrictions on the thread are market talk, gossips, rumours and fun, but I have negotiated a deal with the founder (Xtorm owner cesar) to include some pics, but some times we go a bit too far and like Smikester say sometimes we out to be arrested but then again, remember is art.......

.........Yeah we have pin bars all over the place........
The Chonchy
  • #28,631
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:23pm Jun 19, 2012 10:23pm
Quoting chonchy
.............1.21 first you will think, right?.........
That chart shows a pair re-testing the year's low, so we are at an important pivot imho. 1.2130 looks like it could be a good target if we are at the fulcrum now.
Gone to a better place
  • #28,632
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:31pm Jun 19, 2012 10:31pm
Quoting roro53
.....besides central bankers are part banker and more part politician so being bought comes quite naturally.


Completely mashed my swede.
Gone to a better place
  • #28,633
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:35pm Jun 19, 2012 10:35pm
.........I'm having bad conection, is raining here a lot in miami lately, and the heat game on imagine, 49 street today pots and pans........go heat...
The Chonchy
  • #28,634
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:45pm Jun 19, 2012 10:45pm
.........and we won again.......3 to 1 now, one more game and we are champions.......49 street here we come.........
The Chonchy
  • #28,635
  • Jun 19, 2012 10:45pm Jun 19, 2012 10:45pm
Should the US approach June 30 and end up with the highly improbable scenario where there is no follow through monetization, which following Bill Gross' commentary from yesterday (which in turn piggy backs on what we have been saying for months - monetizing of gross issuance and all that) appears unlikely, what would happen to risk, and other, assets? Providing empirical color to that eventuality, which with every passing day is ever more urgent, is David Rosenberg who answers the question: "What happens if there is no QE3?"
We are now being asked this constantly and the follow-up is “who picks up the slack if the Fed stops its bond-buying program”?
The answer(s) is hardly complicated since we have a template for this in 2010. It is a very simple guidepost.
Last year, from April 23rd through to August 27th, the Fed allowed its balance sheet to shrink from $1.207 trillion to $1.057 trillion for a 12% contraction as QE1 drew to a close. Go back a year to the Federal Open Market Committee minutes and you will see a Federal Reserve consumed with forecasts of sustainable growth and exit strategy plans. A sizeable equity correction coupled with double-dip fears were nowhere to be found.
Now over that interval ...

  1. S&P 500 sagged from 1,217 to 1,064.
  2. S&P 600 small caps fell from 394 to 330.
  3. The best performing equity sectors were telecom services, utilities, consumer staples, and health care. In other words — the defensives. The worst performers were financials, tech, energy, and consumer discretionary.
  4. Baa spreads widened +56bps from 237bps to 296bps
  5. CRB futures dropped from 279 to 267.
  6. Oil went from $84.30 a barrel to $75.20.
  7. The VIX index jumped from 16.6 to 24.5.
  8. The trade-weighted dollar index (major currencies) firmed to 76.5 from 75.5.
  9. Gold was the commodity that bucked the trend as it acted as a refuge at a time of intensifying economic and financial uncertainty — to $1,235 an ounce from $1,140 and even with a more stable-to-strong U.S. dollar too.
  10. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note plunged to 2.66% from 3.84%.

So you see, the bond market actually does better (same was true during QE1) without the Fed balance sheet expansion than with it. Why? Because the Fed’s real goal is to ignite investor risk appetite. Bernanke et all have not kept it a secret that the real aim of the QEs is to generate a liquidity-induced rally in the equity market. If bond yields end up rising as they have for most of the past six months but occurs with a rising stock market and greater economic strength, then the Fed is totally cool with that and again Mr. Bernanke has stated that very bluntly (even if the higher mortgage rates that ensue drive another knife into the heart of the housing market). When the Fed stops QE, as we saw last year, risk appetite fades and the economy sputters — a development that will likely be even more acute this time around given the accelerating fiscal restraint at all levels of government that is just around the corner.
So who buys the bonds when Ben leaves the building?
The same folks who were the buyers last year from April to August. The ones who were switching out of equities, commodities, and other risk-assets.
Now you know how to play the second half of the year!

“Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened.”
  • #28,636
  • Jun 19, 2012 11:03pm Jun 19, 2012 11:03pm
........fecking internet slow conection and intermitent here in my house......

........I was saying in the other post that got lost, that I will have to short the franc again, because I think is going down......

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The Chonchy
  • #28,637
  • Jun 19, 2012 11:26pm Jun 19, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting balanced2012
Should the US approach June 30 and end up with the highly improbable scenario where there is no follow through monetization, which following Bill Gross' commentary from yesterday (which in turn piggy backs on what we have been saying for months - monetizing of gross issuance and all that) appears unlikely, what would happen to risk, and other, assets? Providing empirical color to that eventuality, which with every passing day is ever more urgent, is David Rosenberg who answers the question: "What happens if there is no QE3?"
We are now...
.........Nice post........
The Chonchy
  • #28,638
  • Jun 19, 2012 11:27pm Jun 19, 2012 11:27pm



thanks guys...I keep telling my self stay away to all the news happening tomorrow but that would be like only looking a the faces of the lovely ladies that have been posted on this thread....
  • #28,639
  • Jun 19, 2012 11:28pm Jun 19, 2012 11:28pm
........I have this triangle and wedge north that tell me that is going to be a long night........

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The Chonchy
  • #28,640
  • Jun 20, 2012 2:16am Jun 20, 2012 2:16am
Quoting balanced2012
"What happens if there is no QE3?"
We are now being asked this constantly and the follow-up is “who picks up the slack if the Fed stops its bond-buying program”?
The answer(s) is hardly complicated since we have a template for this in 2010. It is a very simple guidepost.
So who buys the bonds when Ben leaves the building?
The same folks who were the buyers last year from April to August. The ones who were switching out of equities, commodities, and other risk-assets.
Now you know how to play the second half of the year!
Thanks for a very informative post.
Gone to a better place
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