Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

GU a little more scrolled out so you can see where my SR originated

Thanks dude

GU is about ready to pop

Not in this one. but nice to see you bro! Smaller tf in compression to poss. up move..Daliy may be in the range or nice tri..GL!

Quick chart D1

interesting....doing a follow up...

i will post my own analysis of the MAJORS later....

NU
I got a tight target coming up. Confluence Fib, .80000 and Monthly R1. however, NU data coming out soon, so I tightened my stop on this one.

No fib on that one, sorry, just .8 and Monthly R

AU
this is the one with Fib conf with R1. Tight stops too

GL Saxon! NZ data may give us our move, if worse than expected...Not to much rejection here as of yet.......Maybe some fear into Asia with Egypt

My chart..4hr for some bumps on the way down...1.0095 tp 1..

EURUSD...I m long in this pair and targeting 1,2860...and in case the price breaks down the fan support then the target will be 1,2440...Although the fundamentals do not support uptrend the pair seems to be willing to touch its target...

Regards..

HI all,
Been away for a while, trying to get back into trading for a short while only. Here is my first trade this morning, It missed my limit sell order by a few pips only, i ll see if it doesnt get back there I will trigger it manually. Seems to be a good trade, next week we will have the RBA decision again. I think that they would cut rates again, maybe by .25. Lets see.
Good luck all.

A SOLID ACADEMIC PAPER ON ORDER FLOW(a bit academic, just so everybody knows.)

http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/...809.0822v1.pdf

BELOW IS A PRIMER:
(it cogently summarizes what the article is about. give it a read)

In this article we revisit the classic problem of tatonnement in price formation from a microstructure point of view, reviewing a recent body of theoretical and empirical work explaining how fluctuations in supply and demand are slowly incorporated into prices. Because revealed market liquidity is extremely low, large orders to buy or sell can only be traded incrementally, over periods of time as long as months. As a result order flow is a highly persistent long-memory process. Maintaining compatibility with market efficiency has profound consequences on price formation, on the dynamics of liquidity, and on the nature of impact. We review a body of theory that makes detailed quantitative predictions about the volume and time dependence of market impact, the bid-ask spread, order book dynamics, and volatility. Comparisons to data yield some encouraging successes. This framework suggests a novel interpretation of financial information, in which agents are at best only weakly informed and all have a similar and extremely noisy impact on prices. Most of the processed information appears to come from supply and demand itself, rather than from external news. The ideas reviewed here are relevant to market microstructure regulation,agent-based models, cost-optimal execution strategies, and understanding market ecologies.

_____________________

SKYNET: for those wondering what tatonnement means.
.

GBP/AUD long. The trade is already at BE for technical reasons and because of the news GBP coming in 2hrs.

AUD fundamentals clearly kick GBP fundamentals. THE trend on GBP/AUD is clearly down...this means this is less than optimal trade, so why did i take the trade?

#1. the GBP index is running into support...it is ready for a bounce. the AUD index is running into resistance...it is ready for a reversal.

#2. the COT chart of GBP and AUD below. check those levels.

trade update. GBP/AUD is now up by +50pips from entry...with an initial risk of -21pips...that makes roughly 2.5 times risk. chart attached.

Hi all,
GU looks like a good set up for a short. Inverted cup and handle. Got all the ingredients. Good luck.

so...at the completion of that pattern...you expect it to go down?

Hard to say for anyone who plays FX in this market. But looking at the monthly chart I would expect GU to test 1.4s again sometime before end of this year, possibly in October or so. Volatility is also another factor that you will need to consider.

Breakout imminent.

very nice information...timely too. thanks for putting that chart up.

i am guessing from your outlook for gu your bias is for a break lower?......always interested to get your views on the DU ec situation

Hi Roro53,
Thanks for the remarks. Yes my thoughts are that lower break out will happen within the next few weeks. As for the AU, I am piling up my shorts for long term. I am expecting lower .90s or so. Will start to take profit south of parity to minimise the risk. I am nit trading full time at the moment, just a few trades here and there. I am just not happy with my brokers ATM.
I am checking out ADS securities to see how they perform. Setting up an account first to see their policies. If they perform I might switch and start trading full time again. Will let you know what happens.