AUD/USD

So wave can tell us there is a 'fall' approaching. Why not where?

And if seen on M30/H1, why not on later time frame?

1.01 on the horizon. Im out.

Im expecting a bounce down for a bit at the Fib target

What will be Europe's future?

Going forward (and, admittedly, simplifying the scenarios), Europe is looking at three paths, according to political and financial analysts.

The first and most traumatic is a disorderly collapse of the eurozone, starting in Greece but spreading to Spain and Italy. This scenario begins with anything less than a clear victory for the "bailout" parties in Greece on Sunday, followed by the virtual implosion of the Greek state, whose coffers are nearly empty. The current economy minister says Greece has enough money to survive until July 15.

In this scenario, Germany opts to puts fiscal rectitude ahead of its pan-European principles. Many Germans are already thinking this way. Deputy Finance Minister Steffen Kampeter told the BBC on Thursday that debt was a "national responsibility."

"I don't see any strategies where we socialize and redistribute the bad political decisions made by some who are over-indebted," he said.

Germany has ruled out the introduction of eurobonds, which would essentially dilute its credit rating to the advantage of the peripheral economies. And German Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that Germany's role in saving the eurozone is "not unlimited."

"We must all resist the temptation to finance growth again through new debt," she said.

Taken to its logical conclusion, this first scenario could reduce the eurozone to a Franco-German core, with the smaller Benelux states attached. The consequences for the European economy would be calamitous, with governments defaulting on debt, capital controls imposed to prevent money from fleeing states on the verge of falling out of the eurozone and the likelihood of prolonged recession across Europe.

In addition, the very process of reverting to national currencies (for which there is no road map) would throw up a multitude of legal and contractual nightmares. And politically, the idea of European union would be set back decades.

The second course is that Europe muddles through while continuing to grope toward banking and fiscal integration.

A compromise between Greece and the troika (not so unlikely, given that 80% of Greeks want to stay in the eurozone) would bring the country back from the edge of the abyss, though any meaningful recovery would be years away.

The new European Stability Mechanism, due to come into effect next month as a permanent rescue fund, would recapitalize banks and help cool yields on vulnerable sovereign debt (Spain, Italy, Cyprus). Its war chest of 500 billion euros would be bolstered as required. (French officials are already suggesting that it be allowed to borrow from the European Central Bank.)

Merkel would make token concessions to the "growth agenda" at the European summit in Brussels at the end of this month.

Moves toward a banking union that would insure deposits, progress toward common tax policies, the decline of government debt and the emergence of the eurozone from recession would ease the pressure on governments struggling to find common ground. Merkel has acknowledged that this is a "Herculean task," but it is in Germany's interest. Very nearly 60% of German exports stay inside Europe, and are competitive because they are priced in euros rather than deutsche marks. A collapse of the eurozone would savage the German economy.

Merkel has signaled her support for tougher European supervision of the eurozone banking industry, in an implicit criticism of the way the authorities in Madrid underestimated the plight of Spanish banks. That seems an important precondition for further German support.

Next year, Merkel faces an electorate already impatient with German largesse for little return. Until then, the argument goes, she can't afford to be seen to be generous.

The third course would see a daring leap toward much closer integration: the "economic convergence" promised by Maastricht but never realized as governments allowed debt to rise and failed to liberalize their labor markets, supervise their banks or harmonize their tax systems. This is the mantra of Hollande, who wants measures to stimulate growth and "imagination and creativity" to deepen financial union, such as a joint fund to pay down debt.

There seems little prospect that such sudden and dramatic initiatives will gain the support of a European public no longer convinced of the benefits of deeper integration, nor of a German state unwilling to allow co-signers on its checking account.

This week, Adenauer's grandson, Stephan Werhahn, said that his grandfather and Schuman "wanted to build a strong and independent Europe, but now with the bailout funds and billions in rescues, we are demolishing it." And he announced that he was leaving the party his grandfather had founded.

The counter-argument of history is that the European banking crisis of 1931 "contributed directly to the breakdown of democracy" in Germany and across the continent, according to economists Niall Ferguson and Nouriel Roubini.

Writing in the Financial Times recently, they concluded, "The EU was created to avoid repeating the disasters of the 1930s. It is time Europe's leaders -- and especially Germany's -- understood how perilously close they are to doing just that."

When I saw the pipies you made I fell off my chair and hit my head then became unconscious, when I regained consciousness I wrote this message to congratulate you!!

lol :-)

Is this one of those buy rumors, sell news situations? Stay tuned to find out...same bat time, same bat channel

My broker sent me this in an email at 2:27am Saturday Australia time!!! a bit late I was already in bed dreaming!!

Dear ------

The Greek elections are due to take place this Sunday 17 June 2012 and it is possible the results may have important implications for the future of the eurozone. As a result, we anticipate there may be significant volatility in the forex markets when the markets re-open on Sunday night, including the possibility of the market opening with a price gap. Given these circumstances we suggest you take the time to assess any potential risks to your investments:

•Consider putting stop loss orders in place
•Assess the deals you have open and close any deals that have unnecessary risk exposure
•Add funds to your account to avoid liquidation of any open deals

Yeah I made sure I was closed out of anything over this weekend as when it opens after the weekend who knows how much it might gap.

I still have one open position....

Fuck me that was an expensive sleep Friday night (AUS time).

Got margined out, oh well. Something I know I need to work on is using stops effectively, long term success will come from cutting losses not chasing gains I assume.

Good luck all to those holding positions over the weekend. Thankfully the money I lost was money I won at the Casino. Oh, uni life...

Hopefully all goes well. One thing I love about FX ordinarily is the fact its 24/7 (weekdays) so gapping isnt an issue and any stop losses are usually close to the mark.

Perfect count (ABC is the best) You should wait until 1.022 to find the drop

My view of the market instability after Greek vote was a part of my discussion with rafiqhidayat. The discussions were our subjective opinions not objective at all. We look into the future.

In the meantime, your statement of "despite the USD is at historic highs?" was a subjective conclusion of the past event. Anyone here knows the USD has been at rock bottom for a few years except you. Can you provide any reliable link to prove your ignorance?

USD is pretty low when you look at trade weighted index

- http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?s[1][id]=TWEXB

Whoever said it was high is clearly crazy, I personally believe it is better to use than DX_F as its better for fundamental analysis.

what news will we have tomorrow ? hope price can go to 1.0230.

Your small party was still going but my big party is not over yet. Please keep your long positions as long as you believe my big party is over.

greek elections, its pretty big news and according to some, EUR, AUD etc could move 200 pips +

But we will see, i think it is overrated but thats me

I can't agree with you more. Only an insane guy like K-ass-qade would believe "despite the USD is at historic highs?".

Is your small party over? So you don't believe in your own words anymore? Isn't USD trash to you? Do yo agree with my view of market instability after Greek vote? This is the reason why your name should be changed to kiss-ass-qade.

Sigh..

My dearest Pappadiddypump or Pumpdaddyofbears or Pumpbeardiddy,

First off...I never said the "USD was trash". Those are your words not mine.

"Is your small party over?"

No. Its not over. I'm spending the rest of my weekend looking for my next opportunity. Reading, studying, figuring out how I'm going to navigate the world economy and helping myself develop an educated world view in the process.

"So you don't believe in your own words anymore?"

(If you are talking about my price target)
You are the only fool to believe your own "oracle"-like price projections pal (or anyone else's for that matter). Mature people who understand life and live with metrics take precision with some level of apprehension, determine a range, and act.

And for the dollar, yeah, you won't find me in that casino. If you go about your business believing that "price determines where you should invest" I feel sorry for you. Price is just an input of a decision making process for me.
I put my money where I find the best fit between relative value and a comfortable time horizon. So just because you buy what candlesticks tell you to buy doesn't mean that everyone else should too.

So while you want to misallocate your resources of time and energy to build a consensus amongst your "perceived" buddies on this thread. Just remember that no one gives a damn about anything else other than money. Run for congress if you care about popularity.