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Silent Service Method

  • #13,881
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:07pm Jun 11, 2012 3:07pm
Yes Eur is in trouble till 2.1000


Quoting o990l6mh
No, sorry - couldn't find a good chart.

If you're interested in some closeup on how Italy may come to affect the euro, this article may be worth a read: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/bu...l.html?_r=2&hp
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur lfx d1 11-6-12.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #13,882
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:10pm Jun 11, 2012 3:10pm
Im thinking well see 1.2068 soon ,
2.1000 /1.7400=
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #13,883
  • Jun 11, 2012 3:17pm Jun 11, 2012 3:17pm
gold also stu ,I think prob time lets see
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  • #13,884
  • Jun 11, 2012 10:53pm Jun 11, 2012 10:53pm
Quoting o990l6mh
No, sorry - couldn't find a good chart.

If you're interested in some closeup on how Italy may come to affect the euro, this article may be worth a read: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/bu...l.html?_r=2&hp
Good article.
  • #13,885
  • Jun 11, 2012 10:54pm Jun 11, 2012 10:54pm
Quoting Bones
gold also stu ,I think prob time lets see
Gold looks like it wants to bang around for a while....however, if we break below the $1,500 level - it is going to fall apart. A move above the $1,650 level would have it rising.......
  • #13,886
  • Jun 12, 2012 12:52am Jun 12, 2012 12:52am
lol I hope not ,little retrace on pairs nothing wrong with that ,
I think my targets good (eu)


Quoting clockwork71
Gold looks like it wants to bang around for a while....however, if we break below the $1,500 level - it is going to fall apart. A move above the $1,650 level would have it rising.......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold h4 12-6-12 trade 8.gif Size: 23 KB
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  • #13,887
  • Jun 12, 2012 12:54am Jun 12, 2012 12:54am
in fact im long usd cad,eur gbp
short cad jpy ,gbp jpy ,gbp usd,eur jpy,aud usd
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  • #13,888
  • Jun 12, 2012 5:26am Jun 12, 2012 5:26am
Quoting Bones
in fact im long usd cad,eur gbp
short cad jpy ,gbp jpy ,gbp usd,eur jpy,aud usd
Far too many positions for me........but if you are comfortable - more power to ya....
  • #13,889
  • Jun 12, 2012 8:36am Jun 12, 2012 8:36am
hi chris, i would apreciate your comments of this trade plan. thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 12.06.2012 1900h.jpg Size: 104 KB
  • #13,890
  • Jun 12, 2012 8:49am Jun 12, 2012 8:49am
Quoting dolphin
hi chris, i would apreciate your comments of this trade plan. thanks
I'm not Chris, but I'll jump in anyway and ask - what is your reasoning behind this trade idea?
  • #13,891
  • Jun 12, 2012 8:50am Jun 12, 2012 8:50am
lol Chris if you knew my position I think even your eyes would water ,sweating out gold at mo ,but thats a small one



Quoting clockwork71
Far too many positions for me........but if you are comfortable - more power to ya....
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  • #13,892
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:25am Jun 12, 2012 9:25am
20 mins into the match, and Greece is down 2-0 to Czech Rep. Now the keeper is being taken off.

Greece should be thrown out of the EU simply for the horrible football.
  • #13,893
  • Jun 12, 2012 9:27am Jun 12, 2012 9:27am
Quoting dolphin
hi chris, i would apreciate your comments of this trade plan. thanks
I am not even considering buying the Euro at this point. There are simply far too many unknowns at this point, and I see any move higher as an invitation to sell. But I have to ask, just like the Swede did: "What is your reasoning?"
  • #13,894
  • Edited 10:10am Jun 12, 2012 9:40am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting dolphin
hi chris, i would apreciate your comments of this trade plan. thanks
I would like to point out, that waiting for confirmation candles completely destroys your r/r.

Don't you think it would be much better to buy where the the last red candle stopped and risk 20 or so pips? I rarely ever wait for confirmation. If you do, you need to reduce your lot size to balance out the set % risk you have for each trade.

With that being said, now that the candle has formed, you are rather close to the next supply zone up ahead, which drastically reduces the chance for a solid trade.

Edit: Attached chart showing demand/supply. Demand was derived from the 8th.

to make matters even worse, the current price is at a possible demand turned supply zone.

I know this is 'after the fact', at least to you. However, I had that demand zone drawn since last Friday. No play in the euro, as I've been slinging the Aussie lately. Regardless, watch what happens when price gets back to the supply area (if it makes it through the current demand>supply). It's going to do one of two things, hold or continue on. It is usually painfully obvious which it will do. Even if your first play is incorrect, jump on board for the opposite play when price invalidates or validates the zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #13,895
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:03am Jun 12, 2012 11:03am
Quoting o990l6mh
I'm not Chris, but I'll jump in anyway and ask - what is your reasoning behind this trade idea?
he tratado de poner en práctica algo de lo que venido aprendiendo de este foro. básicamente busqué soportes y resistencias y patrones de candelas. gracias por tu tiempo y por atender mi pregunta, me he dado cuenta que todavía me falta mucho por aprender. no me rendiré...algún día cercano llegaré a pensar como ustedes!
  • #13,896
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:06am Jun 12, 2012 11:06am
thanks Venice, very helpful!

Quoting Venice
I would like to point out, that waiting for confirmation candles completely destroys your r/r.

Don't you think it would be much better to buy where the the last red candle stopped and risk 20 or so pips? I rarely ever wait for confirmation. If you do, you need to reduce your lot size to balance out the set % risk you have for each trade.

With that being said, now that the candle has formed, you are rather close to the next supply zone up ahead, which drastically reduces the chance for a solid trade.

Edit: Attached chart showing demand/supply....
  • #13,897
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:06am Jun 12, 2012 11:06am
Quoting dolphin
he tratado de poner en práctica algo de lo que venido aprendiendo de este foro. básicamente busqué soportes y resistencias y patrones de candelas. gracias por tu tiempo y por atender mi pregunta, me he dado cuenta que todavía me falta mucho por aprender. no me rendiré...algún día cercano llegaré a pensar como ustedes!
Sorry, mi hablo no spanish...
  • #13,898
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:16am Jun 12, 2012 11:16am
Quoting o990l6mh
Sorry, mi hablo no spanish...
"I tried to implement something I have been learning from this forum. Basically support and resistance patterns and candles. Thank you for your time and for responding to my question, I realize I have a lot to learn. I will not give up... one day soon I will get to think like you!
  • #13,899
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:16am Jun 12, 2012 11:16am
Quoting Venice
I would like to point out, that waiting for confirmation candles completely destroys your r/r.
This depends completely on the time frame you are trading on. For example, if I am trading a weekly chart and looking for a long-term move - it won't matter. If you are trading the 5 min chart - totally different story.

However, there is some wisdom in this statement. But I would state that the levels you use had better be important and will be much more likely to be successful if with the trend.
  • #13,900
  • Jun 12, 2012 11:23am Jun 12, 2012 11:23am
Quoting clockwork71
This depends completely on the time frame you are trading on. For example, if I am trading a weekly chart and looking for a long-term move - it won't matter. If you are trading the 5 min chart - totally different story.

However, there is some wisdom in this statement. But I would state that the levels you use had better be important and will be much more likely to be successful if with the trend.
With trend is absolute if you plan on holding for multiple days, unless, of course, you know you are countering. Counters are always rough and rigid regardless.

With that being said, I do not like confirmation candles even on my daily or weekly plays. Price slides into a zone, and my risk is the top/bottom of that zone. On a confirmation candle, I may add to the order, but it will be significantly smaller. My intial zone will already be in play.

I always want the greatest reward for the smallest risk. But that's just me. It comes at a cost of being wrong more.

So really, it is more so trading style than anything. I tend to view it this way:

- no confirmation: less risk per loss, potentially wrong more
- confirmation: more risk paid per loss, but win % is much higher

Really, I just hate when you get run away confirmation candles and you have to sit the play out regardless.
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