why do people share profitable systems? | Forex Factory

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why do people share profitable systems?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 11, 2012 4:29am Jun 11, 2012 4:29am
A profitable system/strategy no longer remain profitable when majority starts following... why do people share their system for free?
  • #2
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:36am Jun 11, 2012 4:36am
cause a profitable system alone makes only 50% of a profitable trader
  • #3
  • Jun 11, 2012 4:46am Jun 11, 2012 4:46am
agree to some degree but still,it is pure madness.once you discover the problem is you and not the system,the remaining 50% profitable trader grows inside you very rapidly.
  • #4
  • Jun 11, 2012 6:33am Jun 11, 2012 6:33am
Quoting Coolleen
A profitable system/strategy no longer remain profitable when majority starts following... why do people share their system for free?
in order for this to happen, you have no idea how many of us would have to use the system, and with large amounts of capital.

and also, give 2 persons the exact same system and they will trade it differently, and at one point one or the other will try to improve it and make it perfect, and thus destroy it...because everybody wants that perfect system that gives no false signals
Twitter: @forexpokerpro
  • #5
  • Jun 11, 2012 6:43am Jun 11, 2012 6:43am
Quoting Coolleen
A profitable system/strategy no longer remain profitable when majority starts following... why do people share their system for free?
Because they don't understand the first thing you said to begin with.

And typically the "systems" are not long term profitable anyway.
Time hides Nothing
  • #6
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:14am Jun 11, 2012 7:14am
I think your premise is somewhat incorrect anyway.

Say, for instance, my system was "BUY EUR every single time EURUSD was priced at an even cent in rate".

So I share this system to everybody in the world, and somehow manage to convince ten million traders that it's the greatest system ever convoluted, and traders begin to buy the EURUSD pair at 1.23, 1.24, 1.25 etc.

Now do you think that this would invalidate it, or enhance it? Would you buy at a price point you knew ten million traders were going to buy?

Of course, my example would be unfeasible, and would unwind very quickly, but that's an explanation for another day. Nonetheless, you could argue that we, as traders, try to capture the momentum behind another group of traders' buying and selling decisions on every trade we make.

***********

Another factor you seem to not have a grasp on is the myriad of personalised methods that can be traded. Fear not that your magic little system will be so dominant that it will collapse under it's own critical mass. Won't happen.

I suspect you think you've come across a ripper of a method that you are afraid will be invalidated by virtue of the fact it is shared here on FF. Don't kid yourself.
  • #7
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:30am Jun 11, 2012 7:30am
ToeCutter
Quote
I suspect you think you've come across a ripper of a method that you are afraid will be invalidated by virtue of the fact it is shared here on FF. Don't kid yourself.

Agreed. Based on the number of retail and institutional traders (which I do not know), it would seem very unlikely that a "majority" would trade same strategy/system, let alone the number here on FF.

The probability, if current trading estimates are correct, that 90-95% of traders lose money speaks to the lack of knowledge/training/psychological control and has nothing to do with the profitability of a system. Even if it did happen, the likelyhood of any group of retail traders effecting the movement of the market by virtue of trading the same system is very remote at best.

There is never any fear of sharing of profitable systems for the reasons stated in previous posts - traders' lack of discipline, the need to add individual nuances and/or failure to simply follow directions. Those challenges will adequately secure the integrity of a truly profitable system.

No need to worry - your system is safe here.

Good luck.

dcginc
  • #8
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:35am Jun 11, 2012 7:35am
I think to find a true edge in the market takes an understanding of the market itself. Most "systems" are too mechanical to properly capulate any real advantage in an evironmemt which is anything but rigid.

In the contest for profit games are played but of course there is always a structured element to the market which can never be bi passed. In this truth lyes the edge and ability to build a stategy around.

It's the game element that separates the wheat from the chaff. It's the game element that throws indicators into false signals. Support lines with false breakouts and false bounces, trailing stops to be hit.

Maybe there are some good systems on this forum I have no idea because I don't look for them anymore but I agree with Cooleen that the less people that know the better.
Time hides Nothing
  • #9
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:00am Jun 11, 2012 8:00am
Quoting Coolleen
A profitable system/strategy no longer remain profitable when majority starts following... why do people share their system for free?
A profitable system (in the long term) doesn't exist. The only who might be profitable is the trader him(her)self.

There are too many things involved in the way a trader trades, especially in his mind, that there's no way for other traders to replicate all this as "system".
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #10
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:23am Jun 11, 2012 8:23am
I disagree that profitable systems are shared. Most of everything that appears on the internet has nothing to do with a profitable system.

There's the illusion of profitable systems being shared. Like the Sam Seiden stuff, VSA, Market Profile. All of these are not profitable systems. They are glorified dart throwing. Dart throwing always comes with the disclaimer of psychology attached.

A profitable system involves a completely different metric than slapping an indicator on a chart or supply demand levels or virgin points of control. A profitable system involves understanding what the actual machine is, the inefficiencies of the machine that are a constant, and how to exploit those inefficiencies as the machine interacts with fundamental forces.

Once you understand the underlying mechanics, it isn't something that works or doesn't work under certain market conditions, it always works within an expanded metric of trends and a contracted metric of ranges.

When people make statements that systems worked and stop working, it's because they're looking at a minute aspect of market functionality and using some type of historical averaging to guess what price will do next. This is an effect of limited knowledge. It's also is a pitfall of system building because often people spend vast amounts of time trying to perfect things that have limited functionality or trying to learn things that are too wishy washy (like Elliot Wave)

For any system to be constantly profitable it needs to be built on constants that are irrefutable under any condition. When someone uncovers this, the logical response is to guard it and make boatloads of money with it.

These traders aren't employed by some online school to do webinars like Sam Seiden or hawking software like Tom Williams. They didn't make their money forming institutes like Gann or Elliot, or publishing equally fuzzy tomes on Order Flow.

Every business has it's inner workings. A few people who work hard enough to get to the core of it, and thousands more people set up tents around it to sell formulas and recipes.

Separating the two is essential to finding the answer.
  • #11
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:24am Jun 11, 2012 8:24am
Quoting FerruFx
A profitable system (in the long term) doesn't exist. The only who might be profitable is the trader him(her)self.

There are too many things involved in the way a trader trades, especially in his mind, that there's no way for other traders to replicate all this as "system".
by the word "system" i do not mean a system like when this line goes above that line ,that indicator flash a green light = buy....

by system i mean a simple method that requires a pair of eyes,human brain to decide and think and that can not be automated.


Quoting ToeCutter
Would you buy at a price point you knew ten million traders were going to buy?
No,if majority is long or thinking long i'll be looking for short opportunities under normal circumstances and vice versa.
  • #12
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:33am Jun 11, 2012 8:33am
Quoting Fudomyo
I disagree that profitable systems are shared. Most of everything that appears on the internet has nothing to do with a profitable system.

Every business has it's inner workings. A few people who work hard enough to get to the core of it, and thousands more people set up tents around it to sell formulas and recipes.

Separating the two is essential to finding the answer.
Love your post!
  • #13
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:37am Jun 11, 2012 8:37am
Fudomyo and Cindy

very good posts guys
  • #14
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:56am Jun 11, 2012 8:56am
Quoting Coolleen
... by system i mean a simple method that requires a pair of eyes,human brain to decide and think and that can not be automated....
This is exactly why I said that a profitable "system" doesn't exist. Each human is different and will make the "system" trading differently.

Quoting Fudomyo
I disagree that profitable systems are shared. Most of everything that appears on the internet has nothing to do with a profitable system
I can't agree more ...
MT4/MT5 EAs/Indicators/Alerts coder
  • #15
  • Edited 1:40pm Jun 11, 2012 10:00am | Edited 1:40pm
Quoting Fudomyo
I disagree that profitable systems are shared. Most of everything that appears on the internet has nothing to do with a profitable system.

There's the illusion of profitable systems being shared. Like the Sam Seiden stuff, VSA, Market Profile. All of these are not profitable systems. They are glorified dart throwing. Dart throwing always comes with the disclaimer of psychology attached.

A profitable system involves a completely different metric than slapping an indicator on a chart or supply demand levels or virgin points of control....
Taking swipes at people like Seiden, DS and williams et al, I think people will read what you wrote out of context. Yes they are playing the retail education game but the point is they are just providing a very basic concept (I see you using some of these concepts). But you are quite right. Trading is not a set of rules, its a number of component parts that work together as a more complex process (not complicated). It is not a linear process, set of rules that these so called educators preach (DS excluded). That's the problem with so called 'systems' and sharing them. The one who is sharing it, successful with it, has individualised the complexity of it which no other person will be able to imitate exactly and even be profitable with it.
  • #16
  • Jun 11, 2012 10:21am Jun 11, 2012 10:21am
sharing a profitable system is like discovering there is a pot of gold in the end of every rainbow and then telling everyone ...goes against human instinct...go figure
wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoy! wo-yoi! wo-yoy-yoy-yoy!
  • #17
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:35pm Jun 11, 2012 7:35pm
Quoting Coolleen
human brain to decide and think
Now, that's worth methodizing. It shapes the edge of devices.
  • #18
  • Jun 11, 2012 7:52pm Jun 11, 2012 7:52pm
Why is it hard to fathom someone sharing a profitable system?

What about some of the people in the trade who want to pass on their knowledge? People like that do exist. If they don't pass on the knowledge, they will bring it to their grave and something of benefit to the world will be lost forever.

Also, is it so hard to fathom that seemingly random and chaotic "systems" as long as executed properly will produce consistent and profitable results?

You see many blacksmiths in the world. You see many shoemakers in the world. They pass on their knowledge. They have a system. Many may not know about it because they do not spend the time and effort to learn these master's secrets. But fact that there is a gucci, lv or jimmy choo is proof that a system is or skill is shared and only the few who actually put in the effort will eventually become masters of it themselves.

Not too hard to fathom is it?
  • #19
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:32pm Jun 11, 2012 8:32pm
Quoting thelws
Why is it hard to fathom someone sharing a profitable system?

What about some of the people in the trade who want to pass on their knowledge? People like that do exist. If they don't pass on the knowledge, they will bring it to their grave and something of benefit to the world will be lost forever.

Also, is it so hard to fathom that seemingly random and chaotic "systems" as long as executed properly will produce consistent and profitable results?

You see many blacksmiths in the world. You see many shoemakers in the world. They pass on their...
Excellent post thelws. If I didn't know any better I would have guessed that the thread starter has an issue with people sharing things. Of course I'm not saying they do since I don't know them or their true motive for starting this thread. However it does come across as selfish. It also comes across as having a mindset that forex is a rigged game. I would also guess that this person has yet to find a profitable method of their own. Otherwise, why would anyone care enough to start a thread about what others do or share? That's just a guess though .

As you can see by my signature, I am a "sharer" . Therefore, I'm an advocate of sharing. Perhaps my willingness to share comes from having had others teach me a few things. Or maybe it comes from a mentality of we're all small fish in a very big pond. Maybe it's both or something else altogether. With that said, a "system or strategy" that is shared is only as good as the person using it - as others have mentioned. It is unlikely that a big enough group of people are doing the same exact thing at the same time to affect price in this market. The way I see it, us retailers are the tip of the tip of the iceberg.

Lastly, if you're someone who isn't profitable you should not knock anyone for sharing. It just might give you what you're missing.
  • #20
  • Jun 11, 2012 8:47pm Jun 11, 2012 8:47pm
I guess in the most competitive business in the world it makes sense to help your competition... = /

It's not selfish to not want to share your system,. In fact if you ever do you will likely be disappointed as they lose their money and blame you. Despite your best intentions.
Time hides Nothing
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