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  • #46,741
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:44pm Jun 10, 2012 3:44pm
Quoting forextraderx
Ya... I hear ya DB, and i won't deny that's my feelings too...

but my experience says that when things like what i'm seeing happen... i've always gotten run over for following my "logic".

well, maybe not always..but it tends to be a losing week or 2... and sometimes, it's really...really hurt.

I could be wrong, i'm wrong about these things at least 35% of the time... and probably more like 40%

but, sigh... i can't explain it. i've just seen this too mjuch to ignore the warnings.

i may not go crazy nuts-o long... but i doubt i'll...
If you are right and this gap doesn't close... it'll be great
  • #46,742
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:46pm Jun 10, 2012 3:46pm
Quoting forextraderx
Ya... I hear ya DB, and i won't deny that's my feelings too...

but my experience says that when things like what i'm seeing happen... i've always gotten run over for following my "logic".

well, maybe not always..but it tends to be a losing week or 2... and sometimes, it's really...really hurt.

I could be wrong, i'm wrong about these things at least 35% of the time... and probably more like 40%

but, sigh... i can't explain it. i've just seen this too mjuch to ignore the warnings.

i may not go crazy nuts-o long... but i doubt i'll go short...
FTX,

I was not saying you were wrong or I was right. My point is that the current world economy deterioration has speeded up. The eruption of WWII had some deep rooted relation with the depression in 1930s. The collapse of worldwide economy may lead to a war to end such chaos. By that time, Euro may become a historic failed concept.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,743
  • Jun 10, 2012 3:52pm Jun 10, 2012 3:52pm
Quoting forextraderx
the events I mentioned were listed in a linear chronological fashion... don't see how you could have possibly gotten "same time" out of it...

At any rate... it seems you would rather find some sort of justification for a short position, rather than carefully consider and appropriately question my response here.

If I were you, I would be asking myself "hmmm... what are the odds that this guy knows what is is talking about? is he primarily a winning trader from what I can see? or is he mostly a losing trader from what i can see...?"

[b]If...

hah yes i do think but not about u... dont need to ask anything really i have 100s of opinions an scenarios in my mind but cant be bothered saying them all...i prefer to just show my chart and let people figure out what i see, ....i think forex should be worked and studied for not handed over like its some kind of lottery, my style is mine an yours, your own...

p.s im probably trippleing your pip count in the same amount of time...
  • #46,744
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:08pm Jun 10, 2012 4:08pm
Quoting Silencer
hah yes i do think but not about u... dont need to ask anything really i have 100s of opinions an scenarios in my mind but cant be bothered saying them all...i prefer to just show my chart and let people figure out what i see, ....i think forex should be worked and studied for not handed over like its some kind of lottery, my style is mine an yours, your own...

p.s im probably trippleing your pip count in the same amount of time...
You are somewhat defensive, and myopic, and your attempt at justifying your defensive reaction by speculating on your greater or lesser success in terms of pips is a weak smokescreen for your ego that serves neither you, nor me, in gaining a greater understanding of the market, or our own selves. And regardless of one's "style," this is not behavior conducive to constructive thought or action for anyone under any circumstances.

X
  • #46,745
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:13pm Jun 10, 2012 4:13pm
Quoting arcticpolar
ForexTraderX

So you are long AUD? when is a good place to take profits? Or you'll just let your stop loss take you out? In the current situation in Europe... I'm longing AUD and I'm feeling already very uneasy about it. the fundamentals of Europe's Crisis is scarying the SHIT out of me. once it goes down it goes down fast. I don't want to stopped out of a position because of a stop loss either... because those are gains I'm risking.
I'm not long AUD, i'm lon eur tho... at different prices. one account is up a bit, the other down a bit....

I really couldn't recommend anything, as it's your trade not mine. I would feel if price moved below 9800, I would now say at that price clearly I have no reason to be long anymore.

above that price, i have a long bias.

i think just below 9900 would be a reasonable place for a stop in most cases...though I believe it could dip here and continue to move back up.

Those types of decisions are best made well before an order is placed.

I really can't create a good plan for a trade i'm not in myself, and after the fact of it being taken.

I think long is better than short though this week. Though I doubt that is any consolation to you.

X
  • #46,746
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:14pm Jun 10, 2012 4:14pm
Quoting uptickk
Short 1.00 SL 1.20 TP .9978
Out at .9978
  • #46,747
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:32pm Jun 10, 2012 4:32pm
Quoting forextraderx
You are somewhat defensive, and myopic, and your attempt at justifying your defensive reaction by speculating on your greater or lesser success in terms of pips is a weak smokescreen for your ego that serves neither you, nor me, in gaining a greater understanding of the market, or our own selves. And regardless of one's "style," this is not behavior conducive to constructive thought or action for anyone under any circumstances.

X
that was not defensive..... instead of getting jelous and thinking ego, maybe u could ask yourself this!, what are the odds that this guy knows what hes doing? are the odds good or bad? if u asked yourself that an answered ''the odds are pretty good'', then should ask yourself, ok'' what makes him get triple my pip amount in the same amount of time?

those are just my thoughts anyway

does that defensive ego sound familiar?
  • #46,748
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:35pm Jun 10, 2012 4:35pm
Quoting forextraderx
I'm not long AUD, i'm lon eur tho... at different prices. one account is up a bit, the other down a bit....

I really couldn't recommend anything, as it's your trade not mine. I would feel if price moved below 9800, I would now say at that price clearly I have no reason to be long anymore.

above that price, i have a long bias.

i think just below 9900 would be a reasonable place for a stop in most cases...though I believe it could dip here and continue to move back up.

Those types of decisions are best made well before an order is placed.

I...
i'll place my stop loss at 0.99450... I guess I'll be losing some gained pips but eh.... who knows maybe it'll go to 1.00800. but it's so far from that point than it is to. 0.99450. -___-
  • #46,749
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:39pm Jun 10, 2012 4:39pm
Quoting arcticpolar
i'll place my stop loss at 0.99450... I guess I'll be losing some gained pips but eh.... who knows maybe it'll go to 1.00800. but it's so far from that point than it is to. 0.99450. -___-
I would only say this... since you didn't have a very carefully planned out trade in the first place... If I were you I would put my stop at a place where i had no money at risk...somewhere at break even or better.

and, i would then make sure the next trade I had planned out for all this. I would feel far worse to lose money on a poorly planned trade, than I would on a missed opportunity.

X
  • #46,750
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:45pm Jun 10, 2012 4:45pm
Quoting forextraderx
I would only say this... since you didn't have a very carefully planned out trade in the first place... If I were you I would put my stop at a place where i had no money at risk...somewhere at break even or better.

and, i would then make sure the next trade I had planned out for all this. I would feel far worse to lose money on a poorly planned trade, than I would on a missed opportunity.

X
no risk... the gap already has created a big profit gap... if the gap completely closes and then some... I'll be in risk of losing. I just don't know how much of the gains to give back. Before reading your post I was just thinking about closing out the whole gap when broker opened, but if you are one to long the EUR... I have more faith in that AUD will be stronger. I mean it's only falling because of the damn EUR.
  • #46,751
  • Jun 10, 2012 4:51pm Jun 10, 2012 4:51pm
Quoting arcticpolar
no risk... the gap already has created a big profit gap... if the gap completely closes and then some... I'll be in risk of losing. I just don't know how much of the gains to give back. Before reading your post I was just thinking about closing out the whole gap when broker opened, but if you are one to long the EUR... I have more faith in that AUD will be stronger. I mean it's only falling because of the damn EUR.
Well, don't make a decision based on my decision. I adopt forms of thinking that I find benefical, but never someones specific thoughts (unless i independently agree with them)

Although, If i wasn't long EU, i'd be long AU as a 2nd best choice.

so far, E/A is up from friday close... so euro is stronger right now than the aussie... but your of course right about euro fundamentals and aussie fundies...etc.

Just don't lose money, and plan that stuff out better for future trades, and you'll be ahead of where you are now, IMO
  • #46,752
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:00pm Jun 10, 2012 5:00pm
Last pice of the puzzle yet to fall into place. Ben "boom-boom" Bernake needs to say QE3, so we can get this bull run going...
100 Pips per day can keep the bosses away.
  • #46,753
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:02pm Jun 10, 2012 5:02pm
Quoting forextraderx
Well, don't make a decision based on my decision. I adopt forms of thinking that I find benefical, but never someones specific thoughts (unless i independently agree with them)

Although, If i wasn't long EU, i'd be long AU as a 2nd best choice.

so far, E/A is up from friday close... so euro is stronger right now than the aussie... but your of course right about euro fundamentals and aussie fundies...etc.

Just don't lose money, and plan that stuff out better for future trades, and you'll be ahead of where you are now, IMO
Problem is I couldn't find anyone that I agreed with... I don't think Greece will leave the Euro, it doesn't make sense to me. Of course I'm doing this because I agree with your view independently. The fundamentals always confuses me 100 folds but I can't simply ignore it. I know there are people who just do technicals... but if it's fear... even if divergences start showing, shooting stars, and all that stuff shows. it still can go down. x_X I use mostly technical with an overall fundamental to support it, but when short term fundamentals comes in... it all turns to junk. I just wish June 17 comes sooner or Greece decides quickly. So I can pick a side without second doubting myself. yeah if QE3 comes... It'll be easier to know what to do.
  • #46,754
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:11pm Jun 10, 2012 5:11pm
Quoting arcticpolar
Problem is I couldn't find anyone that I agreed with... I don't think Greece will leave the Euro, it doesn't make sense to me. Of course I'm doing this because I agree with your view independently. The fundamentals always confuses me 100 folds but I can't simply ignore it. I know there are people who just do technicals... but if it's fear... even if divergences start showing, shooting stars, and all that stuff shows. it still can go down. x_X I use mostly technical with an overall fundamental to support it, but when short term fundamentals comes...
My thinking is much more simpler with regards to Greece.... The main issue with Greece and Eurozone that there is a lot of UNCERTAINTY. Taking Forextradex's sentiment analysis view, it's a bit hard for the market to identify which way to go (hence they always over react to news, rumours, data, etc)

After 17 June, even if SYRIZA wins the election, it won't automatically take Greece out of Euro. What's going happen if Tspiras decides to renege on the loan agreements is that the Troika will stop the funding? So what happens then? A lot more UNCERTAINTY.

There will be a lot of rumours flying around until a real decision is being made (try to remember what happened between the time Papandreau decided to call for a referendum until the Greeks finally had their bailout). The only thing is we can probably see much bigger swings as the market is UNCERTAIN of where it should be going.

This problem will without a doubt affect the likes of Spain and Italy which is going to make this period of UNCERTAINTY more complicated than before.

In the end, once Greece decides to leave or stay, the market will then have less UNCERTAINTY and will probably slow down until the next UNCERTAINTY causing crises / situation arises.
Buy! Buy! Sell! Sell! Just make sure you have proper MM!
  • #46,755
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:13pm Jun 10, 2012 5:13pm
Quoting arcticpolar
Problem is I couldn't find anyone that I agreed with... I don't think Greece will leave the Euro, it doesn't make sense to me. Of course I'm doing this because I agree with your view independently. The fundamentals always confuses me 100 folds but I can't simply ignore it. I know there are people who just do technicals... but if it's fear... even if divergences start showing, shooting stars, and all that stuff shows. it still can go down. x_X I use mostly technical with an overall fundamental to support it, but when short term fundamentals comes...
I think they will leave the EU myself... because I think irrational over emotional events play out in irrational, emotional ways.

However, I don't believe the actual driving force in the market is a problematic euro. if that was true, we would have been at parity a year and a half ago, if not longer.

I believe it is fear of the unknown...

and resolution, any resolution, will have a positive effect on the extremely net short euro.

at the very least, I don't believe many of the larger market participants will wait around to "find out"... I believe they will take profits here, and then wait to see how the market responds to whatever the result is...

uncertainty is what drove fear into the markets, and less uncertainty, or the prospect of less uncertainty in the near future is what I believe will drive a near term "short squeeze" of sorts.

I don't however believe at this point that we are actually seeing a euro "bullish trend reversal"

I think it's merely a larger corrective move than many are expecting, that's all.

and hey, the market usually moves against how the majority expect anyway... so I for one am not surprised by the price action of today, or last week in general.

X
  • #46,756
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:23pm Jun 10, 2012 5:23pm
Quoting forextraderx
I think they will leave the EU myself... because I think irrational over emotional events play out in irrational, emotional ways.

However, I don't believe the actual driving force in the market is a problematic euro. if that was true, we would have been at parity a year and a half ago, if not longer.

I believe it is fear of the unknown...

and resolution, any resolution, will have a positive effect on the extremely net short euro.

at the very least, I don't believe many of the larger market participants will wait around to "find out"......
Haha I don't think it's a bullish trend yet.. but problem is because of that oversold crazy levels during the month of May... the correction could go as high as 1.01-1.02 from that 0.958000 to 1.01 is a big move... so I just wish I knew when to go back to short. I guess it's better for you to short the EUR, because it doesn't have a negative interest roll-over. maybe I'll trade that when the current trend continues.

I guess we differ in the opinion with Greece. I cannot see Greece leaving the Euro. They will be doomed forever... it will seem like forever. I can't see how they would come back from that. Greece is not Argentina

ForextraderX... inform me when you short the Euro.... we both know it's coming soon. maybe not this week but maybe next. ^^
  • #46,757
  • Jun 10, 2012 5:32pm Jun 10, 2012 5:32pm
For AUD/USD I'm thinking it'll be at 1.01600... there's no basis for my choice of this number but that's just what I think it'll be. If it gets there. I'm going to short it there. with a 1.02500 stop loss.
  • #46,758
  • Jun 10, 2012 6:41pm Jun 10, 2012 6:41pm
Quoting Daytrader74
Hey DT74...

i thought about you when I did this analysis and posted this up... I made a reference the other day to "figuring out where the market will turn, and the rest is easy"

well, here's a post I made. if you care to, check the time stamp, you'll see it wasn't "after the fact"

but, it may give you some idea as to what type of things to look for...

http://currencytraderx.wordpress.com/
  • #46,759
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:56pm Jun 10, 2012 7:56pm
Quoting Silencer
that was not defensive..... instead of getting jelous and thinking ego, maybe u could ask yourself this!, what are the odds that this guy knows what hes doing? are the odds good or bad? if u asked yourself that an answered ''the odds are pretty good'', then should ask yourself, ok'' what makes him get triple my pip amount in the same amount of time?

those are just my thoughts anyway

does that defensive ego sound familiar?
Your adopting my basic premise of my earlier statement implies both that it registered with you on a deeper level than you care to admit, and that you are attempting to respond which is motivated primarily by a sense of vengence... that only supports my previous statement.

Furthermore, it's false, because I did consider what you were saying, but you responded to what I was saying with this:

Quote
"lol your post seem like theres 100 different scenarios happening at the same time.... confusing, should make em a little short an sweet for me :-)

Your inability to follow a very basic, very simple layout of an order of events that already occured, and were "confused" by this, shows me you were the one who didn't "understand"... you said yourself you were "confused"

If you are going to act in a vengeful manner, choose to do so when you have a chance at being successful at disempowering your opponent.

it is foolish and shows a person who is either over reactionary, or lacking in intelligence to attempt to do so without even understanding the accusation you are making.

Anyway. I'm sure we will agree on 1 thing. This isn't gonna get you or I anywhere, so i'm done. best of luck to you in your trading.

X
  • #46,760
  • Jun 10, 2012 7:57pm Jun 10, 2012 7:57pm
Quoting rafiqhidayat
My thinking is much more simpler with regards to Greece.... The main issue with Greece and Eurozone that there is a lot of UNCERTAINTY. Taking Forextradex's sentiment analysis view, it's a bit hard for the market to identify which way to go (hence they always over react to news, rumours, data, etc)

After 17 June, even if SYRIZA wins the election, it won't automatically take Greece out of Euro. What's going happen if Tspiras decides to renege on the loan agreements is that the Troika will stop the funding? So what happens then? A lot more UNCERTAINTY....
you bring up some points I hadn't fully considered... and they merit consideration... this is helpful for me, thanks.

X
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