Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

Yeah well see what happens

.........Interesting.......the how to......

.......a man eats another in miami the other day, and this clown comes a week later and come with this prank, imagine somebody with a gun in the runers...........


.........clown

.......but this is real folks..........

http://purpinfo.com/2012/05/second-z...lague-spreads/

.........who die now?

...........all wrong today in my analisis.........sorry

Picture week Cable.. long 5340 ish.. note three hit trend line.. note 7 previous resistance points.. not multi longer term pivot support lines at or around low..Any Fundie reasons why it wont go hier ground..??????

I never considered myself a cultured man of the "arts" until recently...

danc, .....this may help Cable move higher

FED leak from last night;

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-c...rs-more-action

It's a great way to keep fit.

THKS..Roro..cracker

Hi I'll-be-back. Lots of art on this thread and fascinating truths about flying saucers, too.

Here's some art:

It's a 1 minute chart (Thanks to Roro for the heads up) so be quick if you play this pattern.

Sorry for not replying before I was in 1/2 holidays this week. Very good post Sky. Nice to see intelligent arguments FF.

Well, IMO, the main issue is in the assumptions of the argument. Like in any macroeconomic analysis, one needs to define what are the correlated variables and what are the constants in the relation.

The main problem there is that they are assuming a direct correlation between gold and bonds (which is valid), however, leaving ceteris paribus monetary policy (via dollar and QE) and only risk as the variable in the equation, they are dismissing two key issues on the table: QEs and economic growth & output.

The way to integrate these factors in the current bond/gold/risk scenario is via monetary policy (inflation expectations).

In simple words you can't (FA wise) compare the 2008 bond/gold/dollar relation with the current circumstances and let me tell you why:

1. Treasuries

2010/2012 Money has been flowing to Treasuries the last 2 years because FED has guarantee interest rate at lowest for a "extended" (2013 after 2014, etc) period of time. Obviously when we have extreme panic, like Nov 2011 and right now, they push even harder on Treasuries because of the fly to havens.

2008 most (if not all) actors where caught with their pants down, the run on Treasuries was the result only and only of panic.

2. Gold

2010/2012 This is the key, because in their argument they dismiss this factor. Gold has 2 primarily "movers" risk (short and mid term...not when is extreme panic that can make a major collapse when everybody run to havens [German Bunds, Treasuries, etc and Dollar for cash) and as hedge against inflation and low interest rates (mid and long term).

Gold marked the highs (and has been leading on the macroeconic swings across the board) as soon as the US economy started picking up (lows in stock markets), the EXPECTATIONS of further stimulus started to weaken. All swing ups has coincide with Euro debt crisis problems. However all, major real panic attacks (Nov 2011 and now) has been fuel the move down.

2008

Sell-off only started when panic hit the boards and runs to havens. Until Q1/Q2 2008 we still have a majority of analyst and banks talking about inflation as the main concern (can you believe it?...no shit why they got hammered in the financial crisis) and gold was rallying steady as hedge on that.

To conclude, the points is there, slow down in economic numbers in the US (via European recession) plus risk short/mid term in debt crisis with elections around the corner has opened the door for gold to push high and bonds to hold lows.

In 2008 risk factors were not part of the equation. Now in 2012, risk factors are already more than digested in gold, Treasuries and dollar and only a collapse of the EZ will shift the correlations (to direct between gold and Treasuries) and not the other way around like in 2008.

sisse

Hi Smikester, yeah I reckon FF could auction off this thread.
Now heading off to work

.........auction?..........

yeah but people in miami carrie guns and they easyly shoot a clown like this after that incident the other day, so he was lucky, did you see the end of the video, he had to run, lol........