Islander and Medici trade the European open | Page 209 | Forex Factory

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Islander and Medici trade the European open

  • #4,161
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:40am Jun 1, 2012 8:40am
Quoting medici
As attached. So I wouldn't necessarily enter at candle close - rather, I tend to take trades off levels, and the MAs can serve as levels too.

And I am not entirely comfortable with your chart settings. Seems like a 6 pip RB chart, it's another market, and it looks like I would tweak the MA1 in the cloud a bit, to 6 perhaps.
medici,

this is an index chart.
index has been ranging between 4700 and 5300 points.
the daily atr5 and atr14 are both ranging between 75 and 125 for over a year.
the bar range you see in the chart is 10 points.
given this input, would you recommend a different range for the bars?

in the previously attached chart, MAPeriod1 value for the cloud was retained at the default 8.
I have changed that to 6 now; similarly for the T3 oscillator.
the chart is re-attached with these changes.
do you find this ok?

2 questions come to mind re. your suggested entries:

re. 1st entry
is the hammer immediately preceding the entry bar not dissuasive to the entry?

re. 2nd entry
why not an earlier entry after the 1st shooting star. it would still have been off the same level...

thanks a lot.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nifty_rb_further-ma6.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #4,162
  • Jun 1, 2012 9:09am Jun 1, 2012 9:09am
Quoting pgd
medici,

this is an index chart.
index has been ranging between 4700 and 5300 points.
the daily atr5 and atr14 are both ranging between 75 and 125 for over a year.
the bar range you see in the chart is 10 points.
given this input, would you recommend a different range for the bars?
I would have to study a lot more chart history before coming to a conclusion on that.

Quote
in the previously attached chart, MAPeriod1 value for the cloud was retained at the default 8.
I have changed that to 6 now; similarly for the T3 oscillator.
the chart is re-attached with these changes.
do you find this ok?
Again, the sample is too small. But, yes, a step in the right direction.

Quote
2 questions come to mind re. your suggested entries:

re. 1st entry
is the hammer immediately preceding the entry bar not dissuasive to the entry?
No, this looks like it was a move with momentum - two red bars, then a blue one, then continuation - so a high-probability setup with good R:R. If you study RB charts for a while you'll see many setups of this type.

Quote
re. 2nd entry
why not an earlier entry after the 1st shooting star. it would still have been off the same level...
Yes, but it wouldn't have been after a lower high. That's why.

Quote
thanks a lot.
You are welcome
  • #4,163
  • Edited 8:07am Jun 3, 2012 6:55am | Edited 8:07am
Quoting medici
I would have to study a lot more chart history before coming to a conclusion on that.

Again, the sample is too small. But, yes, a step in the right direction.

No, this looks like it was a move with momentum - two red bars, then a blue one, then continuation - so a high-probability setup with good R:R. If you study RB charts for a while you'll see many setups of this type.

Yes, but it wouldn't have been after a lower high. That's why.

You are welcome
medici,

your responses are so objective, as always.
the pieces are coming together... thanks.

there's some history in the attached zip file in csv format:

TF - from date
-------------------
M1 - 05-Mar-2012
M5 - 27-Jan-2012
M15 - 02-Nov-2011
M30 - 13-Jul-2011
H1 - 28-Nov-2010
D1 - 30-May-2008

hope this is adequate. If not, please tell me what we need, what we should be looking at and what we should be looking for in order to decide upon the bar range and ma1.

an entry related question i forgot to ask earlier:

why no entry in the area marked (?) on the attached chart?
if it is an accidental omission, kindly mark else kindly explain.

thanks again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nifty_rb_further-1.jpg Size: 263 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Data.zip   334 KB | 314 downloads
  • #4,164
  • Jun 4, 2012 2:15am Jun 4, 2012 2:15am
Quoting pgd
medici,

there's some history in the attached zip file in csv format:

TF - from date
-------------------
M1 - 05-Mar-2012
M5 - 27-Jan-2012
M15 - 02-Nov-2011
M30 - 13-Jul-2011
H1 - 28-Nov-2010
D1 - 30-May-2008

hope this is adequate. If not, please tell me what we need, what we should be looking at and what we should be looking for in order to decide upon the bar range and ma1.
To generate the range bars one needs tick data rather than time based data. And even then the range bars will differ from broker to broker, and even between separate mt4 instances from the same broker on the same computer.

For turning tick data into range bars it's best to use Excel/VBA, and then to save the range bara data in mt4 csv format. To import that into mt4 one needs to write an mq4 script that imports the data file as an offline chart.

My approach for tweaking the MA is to get it so that the rule "never trade against the MA" keeps me safe and sound.

Quote
an entry related question i forgot to ask earlier:

why no entry in the area marked (?) on the attached chart?
if it is an accidental omission, kindly mark else kindly explain.
Sideways consolidation. Not my preferred situation for taking entries. Had I entered short earlier I would not have exited yet. But if not already short then maybe the break of the level on the third attempt, but again against my taste so probably not.
  • #4,165
  • Jun 4, 2012 3:17am Jun 4, 2012 3:17am
Quoting medici
To generate the range bars one needs tick data rather than time based data. And even then the range bars will differ from broker to broker, and even between separate mt4 instances from the same broker on the same computer.

For turning tick data into range bars it's best to use Excel/VBA, and then to save the range bara data in mt4 csv format. To import that into mt4 one needs to write an mq4 script that imports the data file as an offline chart.

My approach for tweaking the MA is to get it so that the rule "never trade against the MA" keeps...
Got it, medici.

based on my understanding of the way you take entries, I've marked one with a solid white arrow in the chart attached.

does this meet with your approval?

at what point will the increasing separation of the ma's become a deterrent to continue taking trades in the same direction and, call for a wait for a more sizable retrace?

thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nifty_rb_further-2.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #4,166
  • Edited 4:34am Jun 4, 2012 3:54am | Edited 4:34am
Quoting pgd
Got it, medici.

based on my understanding of the way you take entries, I've marked one with a solid white arrow in the chart attached.

does this meet with your approval?
I'd prefer the candle before that one. Lower high...

Quote
at what point will the increasing separation of the ma's become a deterrent to continue taking trades in the same direction and, call for a wait for a more sizable retrace?
You can use the Oscillator to measure the separation between MA1 and MA2, and then use a Keltner Channel around MA3. Those two in conjunction should give you an indication of OB/OS areas. The MAs (and channel width) would obviously have to be tweaked for your particular market.
  • #4,167
  • Jun 4, 2012 5:23am Jun 4, 2012 5:23am
I'm using RB3 (instead of 10 tick bars) as my primary chart now running RB5 and RB7 along side.

Taking trades using the levels I discussed awhile back in combination with recent S/R and HLs etc.

Just trading from LO to 11am London Time then signing off.
If I can grab 1-2 12 pip moves a nice I'm happy.

Hope all is well with you boys!

P.S - I enjoyed Zen In The Markets medici, anything other suggestions?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu 04-06-12 rb3.gif Size: 28 KB
  • #4,168
  • Jun 4, 2012 7:24am Jun 4, 2012 7:24am
Quoting nhen
I'm using RB3 (instead of 10 tick bars) as my primary chart now running RB5 and RB7 along side.

Taking trades using the levels I discussed awhile back in combination with recent S/R and HLs etc.

Just trading from LO to 11am London Time then signing off.
If I can grab 1-2 12 pip moves a nice I'm happy.
Very sensible approach to trading if you don't want to spend all day in front of the screens. Try to follow it myself when I can pull myself away from the NY session, which doesn't seem to be happening today

Quote
P.S - I enjoyed Zen In The Markets medici, anything other suggestions?

Depends on what kind of reading you want...if it's trading psychology I'd recommend anything by Brett Steenbarger and nothing else.
  • #4,169
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:36pm Jun 4, 2012 11:36pm
medici,

after the last short failed, would the entries marked 1 and 2 in the attached chart be appropriate long entries?
are the levels marked the way you would have?

thanks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nifty_rb_further-3.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #4,170
  • Jun 5, 2012 2:26am Jun 5, 2012 2:26am
Quoting pgd
medici,

after the last short failed, would the entries marked 1 and 2 in the attached chart be appropriate long entries?
are the levels marked the way you would have?

thanks.
Like I said, reversal trades take a lot more discretionary judgement, and the ones I take are usually backed up with a lot of other reasoning. For example, the Aussie short this morning at 7.13 was from a xx00 level taking into account recent rate decision, the level, the time, swing length, exhaustion pattern, S/R levels over the past few weeks, etc.

And in the chart you provide I haven't been able to study chart history to ascertain reliability of MAs and chart patterns, so it's a difficult call. If I go for a reversal it's because of other factors, and those influence the entry too. It wouldn't be taken based on range bar patterns only - as said before, they're mostly less useful for reversals.

In addition to the main chart (in my case RB5) I also look at RB3 as the trigger/entry chart which gives more information on PA around levels, and it played a key role in giving confidence for the Aussie short - I wouldn't have taken it based on RB5 alone.

So I am afraid I don't have a clear cut answer for you, but these are the types of considerations that go into a decision.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie short 0713h 5 june.PNG Size: 24 KB
  • #4,171
  • Jun 5, 2012 2:35am Jun 5, 2012 2:35am
Quoting medici
Very sensible approach to trading if you don't want to spend all day in front of the screens. Try to follow it myself when I can pull myself away from the NY session, which doesn't seem to be happening today



Depends on what kind of reading you want...if it's trading psychology I'd recommend anything by Brett Steenbarger and nothing else.


Cheers for the recommendation, I'll check it out!
  • #4,172
  • Jun 5, 2012 3:16am Jun 5, 2012 3:16am
Quoting medici
Like I said, reversal trades take a lot more discretionary judgement, and the ones I take are usually backed up with a lot of other reasoning. For example, the Aussie short this morning at 7.13 was from a xx00 level taking into account recent rate decision, the level, the time, swing length, exhaustion pattern, S/R levels over the past few weeks, etc.

And in the chart you provide I haven't been able to study chart history to ascertain reliability of MAs and chart patterns, so it's a difficult call. If I go for a reversal it's because of other factors,...
Here are some further thoughts on reversal trades.

Reversals are usually slow. And it's very hard to distinguish a slow reversal from a consolidation before continuation - that's the reason for staying away unless you have very good reasons for entering.

Slow markets come with less attractive R:R ratio - that's why trading fast markets is to be preferred. To somewhat inaccurately (?) quote Ed Seykota: "I want to enter when the momentum is high in order to reduce my risk as far as possible."

In other words - look for fast reversals and decent pullbacks in reversals that are already underway, but be wary of slow reversals. And the example entry in the last chart you posted is a risky slow reversal (first entry), whereas the second one is hard to judge for reasons mentioned earlier.
  • #4,173
  • Jun 5, 2012 4:06am Jun 5, 2012 4:06am
Well tonight was fun, if you were short
Signing off early; going to enjoy some pizza and a movie!

Didn't see much point in posting a chart. I sold a few times

Enjoy your night/day boys!
  • #4,174
  • Jun 5, 2012 4:08am Jun 5, 2012 4:08am
Quoting medici
Here are some further thoughts on reversal trades.

Reversals are usually slow. And it's very hard to distinguish a slow reversal from a consolidation before continuation - that's the reason for staying away unless you have very good reasons for entering.

Slow markets come with less attractive R:R ratio - that's why trading fast markets is to be preferred. To somewhat inaccurately (?) quote Ed Seykota: "I want to enter when the momentum is high in order to reduce my risk as far as possible."

In other words - look for fast reversals...
medici,

1]
wouldn't the 2nd entry on my chart be counstrued as being with the new uptrend, the ma's having flipped over and the price having crossed over to the other side?

2]
kindly post both your aussie charts -- RB5 and RB3 to help me better grasp what you are saying.

3]
i see that the 2 'hidden' ma's are visible in your chart.
how do you use these in your decision making?

thank you.
  • #4,175
  • Edited 5:12am Jun 5, 2012 4:21am | Edited 5:12am
Quoting pgd
medici,

1]
wouldn't the 2nd entry on my chart be counstrued as being with the new uptrend, the ma's having flipped over and the price having crossed over to the other side?
Perhaps, but I can't say that it's a good entry based on available information...and I could come up with reasons for not entering, such as buying into a xx00 level after a bounce off it...

Quote
2]
kindly post both your aussie charts -- RB5 and RB3 to help me better grasp what you are saying.
See below, where the level far outside the H4 BBs indicated that there was good pips to be had. Same consideration applied to €/$ btw.
Quote
3]
i see that the 2 'hidden' ma's are visible in your chart.
how do you use these in your decision making?
For example, I use the MA17 on RB3 as a proxy for MA7 on RB5, and I use the MA30 on RB5 to distinguish a reversal from a pullback (the MA17 also figures in such considerations). No hard rules around them, but they are of help.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie rb5 5 june.jpg Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie h4 5 june.PNG Size: 47 KB
  • #4,176
  • Aug 15, 2012 5:31pm Aug 15, 2012 5:31pm
Quoting medici
The time period we are looking at is the early London morning from about 6am to about 9.30am.
Hi,

this is a quote from the first page. Not sure which time zone the quote is reffering to. Is it London GMT (and GMT+1 in summer)?

Thanks for the input.

Alle the best
  • #4,177
  • Aug 16, 2012 12:02am Aug 16, 2012 12:02am
Quoting derwisch
Hi,

this is a quote from the first page. Not sure which time zone the quote is reffering to. Is it London GMT (and GMT+1 in summer)?

Thanks for the input.

Alle the best
Correct.
  • #4,178
  • Nov 9, 2012 1:58am Nov 9, 2012 1:58am
NOVEMBER 09, 2012

3 minutes until the London Open. (Frankfurt opened 57 minutes ago.)

CABLE opened at 1.6003 in Frankfurt; it is currently hovering around 1.5980.
HELL IS EMPTY, ALL THE DEVILS ARE HERE. -- Shakespeare
  • #4,179
  • Dec 11, 2012 12:25am Dec 11, 2012 12:25am
Season's Greetings to all,

I have been a believer of T3 indicators for some time and have only just now discovered Medici's T3 Cloud. As he describes it, it's a "MACD" on the price chart, very clever. ( NB MACD is nothing more than the "difference between two MA's" ). Just how best to use it is up to our own imagination and expectations.

My query here is about the TF of the charts I have seen back at the beginning of his T3 cloud posts. The pic attached appears to be a 2 minute chart ( M2 ) ?? Is that correct or am I missing something?

I am more interested in H4 and above, does anyone here use T3 Cloud in H4 and above?
Attached Image
Good Trading to All ---- fairwind
  • #4,180
  • Dec 11, 2012 2:22am Dec 11, 2012 2:22am
Quoting fairwind
Season's Greetings to all,

I have been a believer of T3 indicators for some time and have only just now discovered Medici's T3 Cloud. As he describes it, it's a "MACD" on the price chart, very clever. ( NB MACD is nothing more than the "difference between two MA's" ). Just how best to use it is up to our own imagination and expectations.

My query here is about the TF of the charts I have seen back at the beginning of his T3 cloud posts. The pic attached appears to be a 2 minute chart ( M2 ) ?? Is that correct or am I missing something?

I...

Glad you like it. No, it's not a 2 minute chart but a range bar chart.
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