AUD/USD

61.8 fib from the 0.99 downswing at 97756

AUS testing 100 EMS on 4 HR...last 4 HR candle closed just below it.....also 4 HR strong support/resistance at 9800....so planning to get short between 9780 and 9820 and target for 9580....Euro also testing 100EMA on 4 Hr.

Rate cut gave scalpers some immediate loss but over all the trend continues.... Huh?!?!

I am correct. Taken profits 20pips using 10k face value

the market will always "balance stock" means when there is a lot favourite in the short, they will purposely planned a bullish trend

Does anyone ever trade the AUD crosses on these sorts of news announcements? I have traded the AUDNZD the last 3 rate cuts and my method is simply wait for 1 minute bar, open position direction of first bar, sell a few minutes later when price action looks to be topping/bottoming out.

Regardless of the craziness happening in the majors the AUD crosses seem to be a) a little bit behind the 8 ball in terms of factoring the new data and b) less whipsaw on the initial spike.


Any comments?


My other trade open right now is long AUD:USD. Went long after the first 5m bar. Shortly after the price retracted to 50% fib which was a 15 pip loss or so straight off the bat. This strategy was formed from some quant analysis in excel which showed that in the last 3 years, about 85% of RBA interest rate announcements (regardless of outcome) generated a trend in the direction of the initial spike over the next 4 hours. So the strategy is buy after the 5m spike and hold for 4 hours.

Risk control on this strategy is not particularly robust. The best I have been able to come up with calculating the min, max and average adverse deviation in the past. The average of which is about 20 pips (depending on whether you use 3y or 1y lookback) which is relatively comforting. I dont use a hard stop on this strategy but 20pips in the red is certainly where I would be looking to get out if price action was strongly against my position and taking into consideration key S&R levels present.

I dont have a take profit level either, simply relying on the timestop of 4 hours after the RBA decision.

Although I only have 4 real trades (Feb, March, April, May) as a sample all have been profitable so far and seem to tentitavely confirm the profitable backtest of 32 trades. Today is a funny day and its not apparent where the AUD wants to go after todays announcement we just have to wait and find out.

Preliminary analysis of NZD trends after a NZD monetary decision seems to suggest that a strategy similear to this AUD one would work even better on the NZD. More analysis needed.

Here's a link to Aussie online news

short read

RBA cuts rates to 3.5%

Still one of the best rolls now maybe the same as Kiwi need to check on that
http://www.smh.com.au/business/rba-c...605-1ztil.html

Regardless of these back to back rate cuts I think Aussie will retrace some (few hundred pips) north before perhaps falling sharply again.

Yet, much of this will be determined by the Global financial climate,

One cannot argue it is still the best or one of the best cash rates.

even at 3.5

Kiwi is 100 basis points lower at 2.5% just checked
http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/monpol/statements/0090630.html

Shockingly bad trades for me lately!
stopped out for -50 pips....

applause:

short now. tp 10

impact of rate cut now realises. short now

I'm sitting on a 2% drawdown, something I don't like, but obviously manageable.

I'm beginning to wonder if the aussie may be bottoming out... with this talk of QE3 as well, doing the rounds, the aussie could be ready to head back up (barring further rate cuts from Stevens at the RBA)?

i heard from a trader for 18 years, the aud will still crash down because of uncertainties of the global

he said aud is a risk currency, which will be affected when risk is there in market

Something to consider before further action.

taken profit. closed trade

That's where I took profit. On the sidelines now.

So let me get this right here... you are making trading decisions based on something told to you by "a trader"... 18 years ago?

Oh my freakin farkin gawd!

It is a key support and resistance level on higher timeframe charts ... resistance sept 2011, support july 2008