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AUD/USD

  • #46,201
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:38pm Jun 4, 2012 10:38pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I read more than ten articles on the web today regarding RBA rate cut but cannot recall which one discussed this issue now. Basic it was my reading from the price action. I was not trying to persuade anyone.
i don't expect the to cut today , but not going to take any trade
Mohan
  • #46,202
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:47pm Jun 4, 2012 10:47pm
Whatever the rate cut is immaterial to a certain degree as the Euro has no business trading where it does. why you ask is this not about the Aussie. When the US dollar index retreats it effects all the other currencies. It had to retreat or else the Euro would be begetting chaos and the central bankers have too much vested interests to let that happen. So some say a 25 bps cut is priced in; I say that whatever the rate cut is gives the bankers the excuse to go after the logical traders. So while the world is in economic turmoil and all the facts suggest an economic slowdown, in the short term perhaps there will be some retracement of the Aussie. Since the commitment of traders report shows higher bets on shorts both for Aussie and Euro, expect the unexpected. I am looking for running of the upper stops.
  • #46,203
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:50pm Jun 4, 2012 10:50pm
sl:0.9730
  • #46,204
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:56pm Jun 4, 2012 10:56pm
Quoting DaddyBear
I read more than ten articles on the web today regarding RBA rate cut but cannot recall which one discussed this issue now. Basic it was my reading from the price action. I was not trying to persuade anyone.
don't know why you reading articles? all you have to do is look at the 30 day interbank market to see what's the market expectations.....

http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15SFIB.html
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #46,205
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:58pm Jun 4, 2012 10:58pm
you using live account?
  • #46,206
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:00pm Jun 4, 2012 11:00pm
aim 0.9774 - short position
  • #46,207
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:07pm Jun 4, 2012 11:07pm
Seems to be rallying into the RBA meeting. It has sold off after the past two rate decisions (one hold, one 50 basis cut) so we shall see.
  • #46,208
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:23pm Jun 4, 2012 11:23pm
Quoting syncopat
Since the commitment of traders report shows higher bets on shorts both for Aussie and Euro, expect the unexpected. I am looking for running of the upper stops.
Yup, COT is showing odd lotters more short now than they were at the early Oct 2012 lows and none of them are long. Great indicator.
  • #46,209
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:25pm Jun 4, 2012 11:25pm
yes, market always go opposite
  • #46,210
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:26pm Jun 4, 2012 11:26pm
Quoting bogus
I'm targeting .9795 too. I had a couple of longs last night (the green lines). I'm hoping we'll make it there before the announcement. Locked in a bit of profit and will straddle the news.I see .9754ish as pivotal around this level.
Update: closed half for 32 and locked in 15, if I don't get slipped too much.
FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #46,211
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:31pm Jun 4, 2012 11:31pm
question is not rate cut , but what it going to do after decision ,

edit: while writing result was out
Mohan
  • #46,212
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:33pm Jun 4, 2012 11:33pm
i think can long now
  • #46,213
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:35pm Jun 4, 2012 11:35pm
Quoting leticus
i think can long now
too early , that push could be from RBA (light intervention) wait 15m to close make any direction
Mohan
  • #46,214
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:35pm Jun 4, 2012 11:35pm
RBA: Credit spreads have increased, growth in Europe weakening.
RBA says labor market conditions firmed "a little."
RBA CITES MODEST LOCAL GROWTH, GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY FOR RATE CUT.
RBA says Europe outlook clouded by weak growth, politics.
RBA continues to note the slowdown in China, easing inflation, but softening its dovish tone for monetary policy.
Expect the unexpected.
  • #46,215
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:38pm Jun 4, 2012 11:38pm
Quoting fx-rocket
RBA: Credit spreads have increased, growth in Europe weakening.
RBA says labor market conditions firmed "a little."
RBA CITES MODEST LOCAL GROWTH, GLOBAL UNCERTAINTY FOR RATE CUT.
RBA says Europe outlook clouded by weak growth, politics.
RBA continues to note the slowdown in China, easing inflation, but softening its dovish tone for monetary policy.

After I read the release it seemed rather dovish to me.

Went short at 9780 tp 95xx
  • #46,216
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:42pm Jun 4, 2012 11:42pm
wtf?
  • #46,217
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:44pm Jun 4, 2012 11:44pm
Quoting forextraderx
I think some of it's been priced in, but there will of course be a "surprise" element as skeptics and optimists alike realize they are wrong... whatever the result ends up being.


I do know this... I'm not too concerned with whether they cut rates or not. However, if they cut rates, but the market starts to move up past todays highs and closes up there.... I'll look to get a longer term, somewhat large long position in the AUD.

and of course if they don't cut rates, and the market sells off strongly... I'll see this as a sign that we are on...
refer to the above post if unsure what to do from here.
  • #46,218
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:44pm Jun 4, 2012 11:44pm
I reckon we will see her drop from here... PA looking bearish...
Expect the unexpected.
  • #46,219
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:46pm Jun 4, 2012 11:46pm
RBA statement open door for next cut.

edit : PA pure mesh , i am out of here
Mohan
  • #46,220
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:51pm Jun 4, 2012 11:51pm
Looks like a tempting level to short.. but my chart suggests a test of 0.98
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