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AUD/USD

  • #46,181
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:02pm Jun 4, 2012 8:02pm
Quoting 4_x
I hope you're right buddy, I'm looking to sell.
A doji is being formed on H1 chart but not confirmed by ma'am jayjb yet.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,182
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:06pm Jun 4, 2012 8:06pm
Quoting helendm
Yea, but this is a forum, not a guru session. If you tell something you need to explain
I am using stochastic to predict where price might go.
stochastic on H4 is telling me that it might reach 0.9800.

I'm not good on explaining things because of the language barrier, just wanted to warn the friends here. If you're thinking that my warning is somekind of a guru session then I'd like to apologize.
  • #46,183
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:10pm Jun 4, 2012 8:10pm
H1 doji coming nice but I will not be surprised if it goes to 9800 tomorrow which I'm looking to sell another lot. I tend to trade H4 because I cannot watch this when I'm sleeping or at work


Quoting DaddyBear
A doji is being formed on H1 chart but not confirmed by ma'am jayjb yet.
  • #46,184
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:11pm Jun 4, 2012 8:11pm
Quoting irfandbl
this pair MIGHT go up to 0.9800 careful on your shorts guys
I think you are right, no problem to test 9800.
  • #46,185
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:12pm Jun 4, 2012 8:12pm
Quoting irfandbl
I am using stochastic to predict where price might go.
stochastic on H4 is telling me that it might reach 0.9800.

I'm not good on explaining things because of the language barrier, just wanted to warn the friends here. If you're thinking that my warning is somekind of a guru session then I'd like to apologize.
Of course not, i was just joking. Always share yours setups with us

I'm long on AUD/USD, GOLD and EUR/USD. I'm short at USD/CAD
  • #46,186
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:14pm Jun 4, 2012 8:14pm
Quoting helendm
Of course not, i was just joking. Always share yours setups with us

I'm long on AUD/USD, GOLD and EUR/USD. I'm short at USD/CAD
Thanks buddy. Good luck on the green pips
  • #46,187
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:15pm Jun 4, 2012 8:15pm
Quoting neuron
rate cuts are expected and may result in bullish trend if RBA chooses to hold cuts or keep em as forecasted

a greater cut than expected could result in large sell off

i've been trying to wrap my head around everything but honestly the best thing to do is use proper MM and watch the charts
look how long it took them to cut it last time..its fear mongering priced imo
  • #46,188
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:19pm Jun 4, 2012 8:19pm
since Feb 6, 2007 the cash rate has been different than forecast 18.6% of the time, including the 3 consecutive cuts during the '08 crisis


just an observation not sure how one would incorporate this into their analysis unless you're gambling lol
  • #46,189
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:33pm Jun 4, 2012 8:33pm
got long around 9759...targeting about 35 pips, stop about 35 pips
  • #46,190
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:36pm Jun 4, 2012 8:36pm
looks market stat to pricing in for rate on hold
Mohan
  • #46,191
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:38pm Jun 4, 2012 8:38pm
took half off at 6.5 pips... moved stop up to about 6 pips below entry, so can't lose on position.

target, 9795
  • #46,192
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:51pm Jun 4, 2012 8:51pm
took a tiny bit more off aud/usd long...and now stops just ahead of BE.

don'e like the 1 min PA...and 9770 was a possible decent resistance level.

all things being equal, as long as E/U stays above 2480... i'll look to get long aud/usd again from a lower price, if we don't hit 9800 first.

X
  • #46,193
  • Jun 4, 2012 9:08pm Jun 4, 2012 9:08pm
my short .9770 triggered. stop loss 20 no take profit. plan to take half off at +20
  • #46,194
  • Jun 4, 2012 9:11pm Jun 4, 2012 9:11pm
I'm targeting .9795 too. I had a couple of longs last night (the green lines). I'm hoping we'll make it there before the announcement. Locked in a bit of profit and will straddle the news.I see .9754ish as pivotal around this level.
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FF journal: Peaks and Troffs
  • #46,195
  • Jun 4, 2012 9:13pm Jun 4, 2012 9:13pm
Hello,

I think i'm still newbie here to say something. So, maybe i'm wrong.

I'd just see the chart, maybe its divergence?
And if it is divergence, i think maybe we're going south?

Anyone ?
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  • #46,196
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:02pm Jun 4, 2012 10:02pm
Quoting forextraderx
Yea, I know. I've got stops ahead of BE....amost sure to stop out, and since my broker is a dealing desk, I won't get slipped on my stop.

For me it's sorta like a horrible odds gamble that I can't lose...

here's to luck

X
Seems to me, the run-up since last night has been based on the expectation of no rate cut. I think current lever has priced in this expectation. Even if no rate cut, I am not sure how much buying pressure will remain. On the other hand, if a 0.25% rate cut is announced as expected, it would be perceived more negative than it should be.

The current daily high is the same as that of 5/31. Plus the upper trend line formed since 15:00 last Friday intercepted the above resistance right at 0.97728. Current chart shows a wedge formation. Don't know how much upside is still left.

The Australian exporters have been pressuring RBA for aggressive rate cuts due to overly strong Aussie. Since last rate cut, there was no good financial news around the world. For a export oriented country, the best solution is to aggressively cut rates to gain competitive edge. MHO.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,197
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:20pm Jun 4, 2012 10:20pm
Quoting DaddyBear
Seems to me, the run-up since last night has been based on the expectation of no rate cut. I think current lever has priced in this expectation. Even if no rate cut, I am not sure how much buying pressure will remain. On the other hand, if a 0.25% rate cut is announced as expected, it would be perceived more negative than it should be.

The current daily high is the same as that of 5/31. Plus the upper trend line formed since 15:00 last Friday intercepted the above resistance right at 0.97728. Current chart shows a wedge formation. Don't know how...
where are you getting the notion that no rate cut has been priced in? i'm reading that at least a 25 bps has been priced.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/rba-w...605-1ztb6.html
  • #46,198
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:32pm Jun 4, 2012 10:32pm
Quoting BergenGlobal
where are you getting the notion that no rate cut has been priced in? i'm reading that at least a 25 bps has been priced.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/rba-w...605-1ztb6.html
I read more than ten articles on the web today regarding RBA rate cut but cannot recall which one discussed this issue now. Basic it was my reading from the price action. I was not trying to persuade anyone.
daddybearforex. com
  • #46,199
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:36pm Jun 4, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting jwlee7ucla
my short .9770 triggered. stop loss 20 no take profit. plan to take half off at +20
Update:: currently at +18.8. Price is picking up speed during the fall, im delaying taking profit for another 30 minutes. But I have moved my stops to safety.
  • #46,200
  • Jun 4, 2012 10:36pm Jun 4, 2012 10:36pm
Quoting Xia
Hello,

I think i'm still newbie here to say something. So, maybe i'm wrong.

I'd just see the chart, maybe its divergence?
And if it is divergence, i think maybe we're going south?

Anyone ?
According to technical analysis books, you may be right on the money.
daddybearforex. com
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