Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

..........In deed it is.......... how is your short coming alone?........

me tree.......

.........Nice chart dswk and nice analisis.........2458 is the last spike of friday

Cleared that short last week sometime. Cannot remember exactly why, but will take any chance to get back in.

1.21 seems a good place for smart money to lead PA to just in time for the long on the news out of Greece.

Cable: Thursday BoE QE announcment may help the slow long I am currently in.

June 11, precisely one week from today — That’s when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issues its first report on European bank deposits since the latest phase of the crisis began to heat up.
So brace yourself! The IMF report could be a shocker, revealing massive withdrawals already under way … prompting even more bank runs … and making it virtually impossible for the ECB to stop the panic.

...........do you think if the news out of greece is good, the euro will rally?
ok.......

Yes... although for how long, I am unsure.

2450 is now history.

Friday High to watch closely now. and after MA200 (hourly) in 2490 zone

I've close all my intraday long there.
1.2470 zone.

And look now to shoot this bitch between 70 and 90 zone...

Let see.

I'm not sure what everyone else thinks, but I am not ruling out the possibility of drop from these heights.

I wonder if good old Liz rocked it last night after putting Philip to bed?

thinking more or less the same......had a small long ej last night and a larger long uj

no response then no higher is how i read it.....

coordinated well prepared/timed and well executed response then great opportunity

Sell limit triggered see previous chart channeltop, buy limit not.

Let this sell open a bit allwell close looks bit bullish putting target 1.2450ish for sell retrace and pending buy around there will look later if changing view or not.

chonchy, roar roar 53, and four five

I read the article by dr weiss(in chonchy's link above), and certain things bothers me. his examples and analogies. What do i mean? The examples that dr weiss used to support his thesis is a bit...off in my humble opinion; Which almost made his conclusion untenable. He used certain supporting blocks to build his argument (a)The Timeline of the Lehman bailout and its effect. (b) the behaviour of gold vs the treasury bonds (c) comparison of gold chart in 2008 to what it is now(2012).

Let me first start with the timeline of lehman bailout....dr weiss claims that because what is happening in europe now is akin to what was happening on sept. 15th, 2008 when lehman was allowed to go belly up; and the reason, according to dr weiss, is because the american public were tired of bailouts. Dr weiss then conclude that when the european public(germans) are tired of bailing out europe, well, greece and perhaps, other european countries will exit the euro with catastrophic effect on the banks, etc. While i am disposed towards the conclusion of this reasoning: that when the germans are tired of bailing out europe, shite will go to level 10 defcon. The lehman example is uncomfortable because after the lehman was allowed to fail on sept 15th, 2008...that was when the series of REAL BAILOUT actually started. Followed by even bigger bailout of AIG...bank of america...jp morgan...TARP...auto bailout...and the list continues....check the timeline here:
http://projects.propublica.org/bailout/main/timeline
While i am already predispose to agree with dr weiss conclusion, i am surprised by his example of using lehman failure as an analogy. I will appreciate a more solid analogy that may shed better light or at least, introduce a different angle to think about the european situation to provide an educational material for me.

One core supporting fact that dr weiss was using to bolster his argument was the performance of gold vs treasuries during the 2008. He was making a case for inverse relations....saying that money was flowing out of gold into treasuries which proves lehman like situation is almost imminent. Having doubt about this, i did a quick check comparing the chart of gold vs the yields on the 10 year and 30 year treasuries around the time of the bailout in 2008. Perhaps, i am wrong here, but what i can see is that (a) yes, money was flowing into treasuries as indicated by the depreciating yields (b) but money was also flowing into gold too...up until the middle of 2008...that was when gold went to a a slightly bearish ranging/consolidating pattern. There was no appreciable inverse relations that i can see. I have attached the charts below.
http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...yun_origin.jpg http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...yun_origin.jpg http://static.seekingalpha.com/uploa...al-Humayun.jpg
I am sure there are ways to use real asset class and flight to safety in assessing the dire economic situation of europe through looking for historical examples, however, the examples that dr weiss made, almost make me question his conclusion. If we must use gold and bonds, like dr weiss, Perhaps in this case a proper analysis of gold vs chf bonds vs german bonds in comparison to rotten european bonds. Of course, gleaming lessons from countries that have experience hyperinflation and run on their banks before, e.g argentinia in 1975; Zimbabwe in 1999, Mexico in 1994, Peru in 1984, Turkey in 1990, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Poland, Georgia,...maybe with more focus on the ones that are closer to EU in economic development/structure. If anybody(e.g roar roar 53 and four five has any insights along this lines, please, share it with us. I always like to learn.)

The third thing that perturbed me about dr weiss supporting blocks for his position was his comparison of the chart of gold in 2008 compared to the present, 2012 chart of gold.
http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/2438/chart1x.gif
Why did this perturbed me? Simply, he committed what seems to me an error of technical analysis: he seems to have succumbed to the fallacy of technical analysis, meaning that just because a pattern re-occurs on the same chart doesnt mean they are saying the same thing. Assuming or suggesting that they are automatically saying the same thing is a fallacy of technical technical analysis. The pattern he was pointing to actually look like an uneven inverted head-and-shoulder/bearish wedge or channel. I did a cursory look through gold charts and i counted about 6 or so other times this pattern occurred between 2008 and today, with gold sometimes breaking to the upside or downside...with the treasuries doing whatever it wants...without any seismic shift in fundamental of euro nations. Just because a pattern occurs when the world was going to shite doesnt mean the next time it occur, the world is going to shit. How many times has bearish wedge/channel occur in gold? countless times...Did the world go to shite everytime that pattern occur in gold? No. That pattern didnt occurr in gold in the year 2000 tech bubble collapse or 1997(during LTCM/RUSSIAN default). A technical analysis pattern has weight because of two things (a) where it is occurring (b) and when it is occurring. Otherwise it is just noise.

While i am pre-dispose to agree with dr weiss conclusion, the supporting blocks for his conclusion seems anemic or counter-productive. However, i will appreciate informed elucidation from members of this thread and others on some of dr weiss approach(because i think they have merit). What approach you may ask? I mean this: using the relationship between bonds and gold prices levels through various historical situation to gauge the rough timing and conclusion of the european saga of economic mess (b)Using technical patterns forming in european bonds and gold charts at the appropriate historical juncture to further shed light on this european economic saga. These seems to be the basis of dr weiss reasoning...and i think they have merit. If anybody has anything to add with regards to these foundational premise, i will really appreciate it.
. <b>
regards

quite the analysis of weiss (which i haven't read, at least so far) but here is my take;

i think the kicker for a sustained rally through another intervention (coordinated) will have to include a well thought out plan to either recap or rationalize the banks......maybe a mix of both

I don't have this (1.25) as a major S/R level on my chart! It is a recent one. though. Gonna throw a short in here.

Kinda channel top allwel the yuro looks like it wants to recover bit more so i go for retrace sell. risk on table is intrest rate decision rba tonight lets see.



Lot of chatter for tommorow on some centralbank phonecall or whatever just home so just reading a bit.

Yes it is the channel top. I remember your chart, thanks. It's a good looking channel. That's quite an achievement on this thread when the serious stuff is mixed up with tits, beer and flying saucers.

BTW I looked back and 1.25 is, of course, major. The reciprocant (is there such a word?) Usd/Chf is also touching a major level - I believe it's .9600.

lovely call, smikester

here is one for ingmar........bastard

http://media.heavy.com/media/2011/04...Bra-Couch2.jpg

i like this look too

http://media.heavy.com/media/2011/04...ith-Sheet2.jpgIt's OK if Gemma Atkinson hogs the covers, because she always brings two extra-nice pillows