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  • #3,661
  • Jun 4, 2012 12:02am Jun 4, 2012 12:02am
Quoting 9047
Keeping a close eye on any of AUD crosses in the lead up to RBA meeting tomorrow. General predictions are for 0.5-0.75 basis point cut.
... I'm wondering where did you pick this rumour about such a significant rate cut tomorrow. There is no chance at all for any cut at all in this month and most probably neither in the next. BRA loves to see CPI data first (25 July) and some initial effect of Juliar tax on carbon emission with a cash assistance flow into the system. The only exception would be Euro-zone crash/split with a full-scale debt default of Greece, Cyprus, Portugal ... G.F.C. - mark two.
  • #3,662
  • Jun 4, 2012 12:45am Jun 4, 2012 12:45am
Quoting DareXau
... I'm wondering where did you pick this rumour about such a significant rate cut tomorrow. There is no chance at all for any cut at all in this month and most probably neither in the next. BRA loves to see CPI data first (25 July) and some initial effect of Juliar tax on carbon emission with a cash assistance flow into the system. The only exception would be Euro-zone crash/split with a full-scale debt default of Greece, Cyprus, Portugal ... G.F.C. - mark two.
A friend (or two) working for a largish firms (one in bonds) suggested it was the consensus among their peers.

Looking at the 30 day interbank contracts for 12 July, it is up 0.75. Am I correct to read that it has priced in an interest rate of 100-97.07 = 2.93 ~ approximately 3% or 75 basis point cut on the current cash rate?. I'm still learning how all these thing are related and how to interpret what these contracts mean. So... on interpreting the interbank futures contracts, please correct me if I'm wrong. For posting a statement based on rumour .... flame away
  • #3,663
  • Jun 4, 2012 1:30am Jun 4, 2012 1:30am
Long at retest on Eur/Usd
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EulongD1.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurlongh1.gif Size: 19 KB
Patience is essential
  • #3,664
  • Jun 4, 2012 1:35am Jun 4, 2012 1:35am
EurGbp Long after BO retest.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Patience is essential
  • #3,665
  • Jun 4, 2012 2:12am Jun 4, 2012 2:12am
Quoting 9047
[url="http://www.sfe.com.au/content/prices/rtp15SFIB.html"]
... the link you refer to has no effect on rate changes, it's simply derived from futures contracts of AUD/USD at set expiry date or 3 & 10 years Bonds. That's similar to spot-forex ... but with time limit for a specific contract (which at the end of it rolls-over to the next period) The difference in prices is reflecting often a 'market's sentiment' ... which is shifting frequently and can not be applied as a reliable indicator to RBA decisions. Those guys have a quite conservative approach and always have been reacting rather later then in advance. So, firstly they need to see an effect of the last rate-cut
(negligible so far) then quarterly GDP and CPI data ... end of July. Anyway, check a history of any rate changes in Australia. http://www.rba.gov.au/
  • #3,666
  • Jun 4, 2012 2:37am Jun 4, 2012 2:37am
Short
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurAud_Short.png Size: 36 KB
Patience is essential
  • #3,667
  • Jun 4, 2012 2:40am Jun 4, 2012 2:40am
Quoting benem
Short
I have this level on my charts but won't take it personally. I'm also a bit of a nit.

Hope this helps buddy, gl.
  • #3,668
  • Jun 4, 2012 2:45am Jun 4, 2012 2:45am
Quoting sam0182
I have this level on my charts but won't take it personally. I'm also a bit of a nit.

Hope this helps buddy, gl.
Yes blind touch on this is a bit crazy...i'd prefer a PA.....
going to the dentist
Patience is essential
  • #3,669
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:08am Jun 4, 2012 8:08am
.
Attached Image
WARNING: Don't follow me as I'm just learning
  • #3,670
  • Jun 4, 2012 9:00am Jun 4, 2012 9:00am
Pairs are moving...eur/gbp & g/chf lining up now.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: egbp.jpg Size: 111 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gchf.jpg Size: 93 KB
  • #3,671
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:33am Jun 4, 2012 11:33am
Quoting sam0182
Pairs are moving...eur/gbp & g/chf lining up now.
I also have that gbp/Chf level marked up....We have same eyes
Patience is essential
  • #3,672
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:36am Jun 4, 2012 11:36am
Sam, don't tell me you also spotted this one too??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audcad.gif Size: 22 KB
Patience is essential
  • #3,673
  • Jun 4, 2012 11:46am Jun 4, 2012 11:46am
I had the audcad level marked but it's very similar to setups on other pairs
So I may concentrate on those
  • #3,674
  • Jun 4, 2012 2:33pm Jun 4, 2012 2:33pm
UCHF looking prime...may opt out of the GCHF setup for this one if it comes around...very nice, prime trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf.jpg Size: 161 KB
  • #3,675
  • Jun 4, 2012 7:35pm Jun 4, 2012 7:35pm
USD/CHF has busted support...my short limit is in @ .9594
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  • #3,676
  • Jun 4, 2012 7:50pm Jun 4, 2012 7:50pm
A corresponding EU setup as well...EU looking very clean, love this over/under S&R
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu setup.jpg Size: 123 KB
  • #3,677
  • Jun 4, 2012 8:56pm Jun 4, 2012 8:56pm
@sam
@benem

hi guys, thanks a lot for your great setups.

in this view things become much more clear.

can you do me a favour?

if there is a sfp in a chart, please mark it for me, i want to learn to regonize sfp s.

best regards

as
  • #3,678
  • Jun 4, 2012 9:30pm Jun 4, 2012 9:30pm
I'll direct this one to the more experienced SFP traders, Benem & others...

Quoting astock
@sam
@benem

hi guys, thanks a lot for your great setups.

in this view things become much more clear.

can you do me a favour?

if there is a sfp in a chart, please mark it for me, i want to learn to regonize sfp s.

best regards

as
  • #3,679
  • Jun 5, 2012 1:45am Jun 5, 2012 1:45am
i like this level better
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chf.gif Size: 18 KB
Support the Resistance
  • #3,680
  • Jun 5, 2012 1:51am Jun 5, 2012 1:51am
Quoting megel
i like this level better
Certainly one to watch. Likewise, I'll be watching GCHF a little higher for a short.

Taking some heat right now with euro longs, always love kicking the week off like this
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