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Supply and Demand trading with Fibs

  • #861
  • May 31, 2012 5:42pm May 31, 2012 5:42pm
Quoting simond2002
Hey Sid,

Images attached. My view only of course - other traders may disagree with some or all
Simond, what are your thoughts on deciding the trades purely on what the rating from the odds enhancers, RR is one part, leaving the zone another but you also have, big picture, time at zone and how it arrives back as Dean says the "magnet effect"?

Keeping it a simple scoring system may help reduce the amount of estimation on if it's a zone or not
<---Look Left
  • #862
  • Jun 1, 2012 12:50am Jun 1, 2012 12:50am
Quoting IequalsS
Simond, what are your thoughts on deciding the trades purely on what the rating from the odds enhancers, RR is one part, leaving the zone another but you also have, big picture, time at zone and how it arrives back as Dean says the "magnet effect"?

Keeping it a simple scoring system may help reduce the amount of estimation on if it's a zone or not
Yes I agree, and for me it is SDZ/RR/Departure/Arrival/Big picture. No more, no less

For many reasons I've found the one that causes the most headache when scoring out a trade is the Supply/Demand Zone (SDZ). For example, we may understandably not want to trade a pivot on a H1 chart, however, it's not unreasonable to be on the lookout inside any D1 pivots to see whether or not there is a decent SDZ that conforms to our system. A robust set of trading rules helps eliminate the doubts on this one.

Also, I've gotten into the practice of first manually identifying the SDZ and then adding the indicator later just to see whether or not the two agree. If you notice, the indicator seems to have missed a quite nice looking Supply Zone on the original AUDJPY H1 chart around 77.80/77.90.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY 1.png Size: 37 KB
  • #863
  • Jun 1, 2012 6:23am Jun 1, 2012 6:23am
Quoting simond2002
Yes I agree, and for me it is SDZ/RR/Departure/Arrival/Big picture. No more, no less


Also, I've gotten into the practice of first manually identifying the SDZ and then adding the indicator later just to see whether or not the two agree. If you notice, the indicator seems to have missed a quite nice looking Supply Zone on the original AUDJPY H1 chart around 77.80/77.90.
Hey Simond2002,
What indicator are you talking about? I did not use an indicator in this chart. These were all manually chosen. I missed that zone as I did not know to look for it. Purple is just the color I choose to use, because blue conflicted with my candle colors. I am from Florida and I am a Florida gator fan hence my orange and blue candles. LOL!

Also if you do not mind what are the rules for SDZ like the one I missed? Does the little rally help support a strong level? etc.? And what about the level below it that seems to be similar. It has a small rally then a pretty strong drop. Can you explain the differences? Is it because it is more of a "V" shape (upside down) and would be considered more of a swing?

Does the indicator really help in choosing good levels? Should I use it to start with, or should I keep choosing them manually and then like you do apply it and see if I am right? How much value do you actually give the indicator?

Thanks....Oh and Happy Friday everyone!
-Sid
  • #864
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:03am Jun 1, 2012 8:03am
Quoting goldfish3
I agree. Buying the euro is not a prudent choice at the moment. But im foreseeing a correction reversal if not now then slightly lower around the 97 level.

Given that the BOJ is getting worried about the yen getting stronger and if it keeps going this way they are surely to intervene.

In the bigger picture the downward momentum has decreased slightly but not much at all.

Best,
-H
Got stopped out here. My entry was too hasty but the market still retraced after the bottom at 95.5 for a good 150 pips.

-H
  • #865
  • Edited Jun 2, 2012 2:11am Jun 1, 2012 8:04am | Edited Jun 2, 2012 2:11am
Quoting Siddhi69
Hey Simond2002,
What indicator are you talking about? I did not use an indicator in this chart. These were all manually chosen. I missed that zone as I did not know to look for it. Purple is just the color I choose to use, because blue conflicted with my candle colors. I am from Florida and I am a Florida gator fan hence my orange and blue candles. LOL!

Also if you do not mind what are the rules for SDZ like the one I missed? Does the little rally help support a strong level? etc.? And what about the level below it that seems to be similar....
Apologies Sid - I'd tested SupDem.exe (i think this is the name of the file) and noticed that it drew out lots of zones in a similar style and colour to the ones that you had marked out. During testing I also noticed that the indicator seemed to omit various zones (that by my rules would merit consideration), which is why I had supposed that you had applied it.

Anyhow, congrats to you if you're picking out the zones by hand . I always choose my zones manually. The only indicator I routinely use is a Bollinger Band but again I have strict rules on how I apply it. Incidentally, these rules are really only a working version of what Sam Seiden (who I consider my mentor) teaches.

Re your question about the levels I have attached a very basic graphic.

Re your point about the small rally and then pretty strong drop look again at the chart but this time step up the timeframe to an H1. What you should now see is a drop down into the zone followed by 5 candles of basing followed by a strong drop out of the zone. It is a Drop Base Drop (DBD) and demonstrates the importance of multi-time frame analysis. As always though, pulling the trigger and entering a live trade remains the sole responsibility of the indiviudal trader

Have a great weekend - we've got the Queen's Jubilee to prepare for here!
Attached Image
  • #866
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:12am Jun 1, 2012 8:12am
Okay so heres Gold, ,made awesome pips with this today. As we can see the market rallied like mad on bad US NFP (every number really). UK is already down and Yen is most likely at its peak before which BOJ wont let it go any higher. This gives gold and silver an opportunity to be safe havens.

Big move up, very likely to retrace to fill up all the left out orders lying there. The key is to identifying where. 61.8 is an obvious point sitting on a decent pivot but the market might not return to it. My strategy is to start filling up my total 1.5% risk in 3 parts first at 23.6 (1600), 50 (1571) and last at 61.8 (1560)

All and any inputs are welcome.

Best,
-H
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold.png Size: 17 KB
  • #867
  • Jun 1, 2012 8:22am Jun 1, 2012 8:22am
Thanks for the graph and the info.

How do you guys handle when price spikes through a SDZ when it is driven by a news event? Do you still consider it a retest of the zone and therefore count it towards removing orders from a particular area? I could understand why you would still consider it a true retest seeing how most levels have some sort of limit orders at these zones. My question is do people remove their orders if it is just before a major news event and then when price recovers back to normal, they replace their orders? Or do they just leave them? My personal rules for trading tells me to not take a trade 30min. before or after a major news release.

In this case if I had a limit order at the supply zone I would have been stopped out fairly quickly.

I have added a chart.
-Sid
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy.png Size: 51 KB
  • #868
  • Edited Jun 2, 2012 2:14am Jun 1, 2012 2:43pm | Edited Jun 2, 2012 2:14am
Quoting Siddhi69
Hey Simond2002,
What indicator are you talking about? I did not use an indicator in this chart. These were all manually chosen. I missed that zone as I did not know to look for it. Purple is just the color I choose to use, because blue conflicted with my candle colors. I am from Florida and I am a Florida gator fan hence my orange and blue candles. LOL!

Also if you do not mind what are the rules for SDZ like the one I missed? Does the little rally help support a strong level? etc.? And what about the level below it that seems to be similar....
Sid, I got in caught in between trading and writing this afternoon and forgot to add this image. The DBD should hopefully disambiguate what we we were talking about and illustrate the AUDJPY zone in question and how it appears different over two timeframes - DBD on the H1 and the smaller area RBD on the M30.

As always though, pulling the trigger and entering a live trade remains the sole responsibility of the indiviudal trader
Attached Image
  • #869
  • Jun 2, 2012 3:03am Jun 2, 2012 3:03am
Could you link up your trade explorer with your journal please ? Thanks. :-)
  • #870
  • Jun 2, 2012 4:35am Jun 2, 2012 4:35am
Quoting simran99
Could you link up your trade explorer with your journal please ? Thanks. :-)
Any thoughts, help and comments appreciated

N.B. Please ignore the "Daily (D1)" field on the lower DBD chart. The chart is an H1 timeframe. Thanks.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: RBD.jpg Size: 225 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: DBD.jpg Size: 254 KB
  • #871
  • Jun 4, 2012 1:30am Jun 4, 2012 1:30am
Here is another one to watch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurcad.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #872
  • Jun 4, 2012 3:59pm Jun 4, 2012 3:59pm
Just spoted this one- may be it is still some chances to pik it up...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur-cad.jpg Size: 66 KB
  • #873
  • Jun 4, 2012 4:49pm Jun 4, 2012 4:49pm
There are a few more came up- check it out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp usd.jpg Size: 81 KB
  • #874
  • Jun 4, 2012 4:56pm Jun 4, 2012 4:56pm
Actually, EUR/GBP is in the zone right now on H4-someone who is dealing with M30 can make good profit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur gbp1.jpg Size: 103 KB
  • #875
  • Jun 5, 2012 1:02am Jun 5, 2012 1:02am
Hi Vitall,

Im on this trade, have already banked 30 pips moved my S/L in Profit and letting the trade run, its now a postive trade
  • #876
  • Jun 5, 2012 1:35am Jun 5, 2012 1:35am
Quoting cashforex
Hi Vitall,

Im on this trade, have already banked 30 pips moved my S/L in Profit and letting the trade run, its now a postive trade
Good job, cash
  • #877
  • Jun 5, 2012 3:30pm Jun 5, 2012 3:30pm
1 trade this week, lack of time due to work, 40 or so pips. hope you all caught this one.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.PNG Size: 61 KB
  • #878
  • Jun 5, 2012 5:46pm Jun 5, 2012 5:46pm
I'm waiting for this setup to be triggered
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #879
  • Jun 5, 2012 10:24pm Jun 5, 2012 10:24pm
Quoting simond2002
Yes I agree, and for me it is SDZ/RR/Departure/Arrival/Big picture. No more, no less

For many reasons I've found the one that causes the most headache when scoring out a trade is the Supply/Demand Zone (SDZ). For example, we may understandably not want to trade a pivot on a H1 chart, however, it's not unreasonable to be on the lookout inside any D1 pivots to see whether or not there is a decent SDZ that conforms to our system. A robust set of trading rules helps eliminate the doubts on this one.

Also, I've gotten into the practice of...
I started using the indi for a while, but because I am a newbie have decided to do it all by sight, if they don't hold, figure it out, I have found I am able to figure out the reasons why zones I pick don't work out and it really boils down to HTF at the moment.
<---Look Left
  • #880
  • Jun 6, 2012 12:13am Jun 6, 2012 12:13am
Quoting phi1ipp
I'm waiting for this setup to be triggered
Hi phi1ipp I'm watching the same zone
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