AUD/USD

It's possible, Gold is on a rally.

Why do you disappear when anyone questions your boastings or assurances of what will happen? I've noticed this in a few posts now. Somebody recently called you out on deleting posts when your predictions were wrong.

Some of us are avid readers but cautious in tooting our own horn's cause we realise how difficult this industry is. You choose another path... fair enough, I guess.

Closed my long positions @ 0.97161. Pocketed 84 pip in such a volatile session. Waiting for next long move after ISM @ 10 am.

I'm over negative comments from others on here, I've disabled access to my fxbook account. Good luck to all and many green pips to you.

Oh, really? Then, why are at 9706? Where's the safe haven now?

Because everyone hates the US and their mickey mouse currency right now
And check out Gold! Over 50 bucks in a matter of mins.

Initial reaction before the drop.

When Gold is up, it means USD is down. Since 2008, USD has lost its safe haven status most time. Following those talking heads on TV about safe haven analysis may not be a good mindset to trade AUDUSD.

Entered long again @ 0.96792. Looking for a 70 pips run.

ok.... or you could have just answered my first question about explaining your massive drawdown.

Don't come online looking for some affirmation about how how awesome you are for you huge account growth when you've clearly displayed massive draw down on your account in the previous week.


Anyway, I feel I should end in the same, passive aggresive way as you.... ummm..... sunshines and rainbows to you and all and may we all find unicorns.

Yes I'm aware of the correlations as I trade them.

Gold up = USD down
Gold up = AUD/USD up
AUD/USD up = Dow up

And as I posted the AU chart, the correlation is as light as day.

I don't see the need to explain anything.

I was not looking for affirmation.

What Unicorns are you talking about??

If USD has lost it's safe haven status then why has USD been so strong recently?
It is still the safe haven currency.
If you make a comparative analysis of charts there isn't a perfect positive coorelation of gold up =audusd up or the inverse audusd up=gold up. Put it bar for bar and check for yourself.

Coorelations and what moves markets one day is not always the same, there are cycles and they do rotate.

First, let me make it clear, I am an American. I used to stick to save haven concept and lost a lot of money. What I said was that USD lost that status most of the time since 2008. Look at Libya revolution last year. USD dropped below parity with CHF. So safe haven is a comparison concept not an absolute gauge.

I agree with you about the first two market moves but not necessary the third one. I believe it's more important to look into the right side blank area of current chart than to watch what has been written on the wall before this point.

I can't be wrong, because I didn't make a statement of fact. I asked a question.

My question is that your track record implies you need over a 96% win rate to break even.

This seems like a problem to me, if it is what it appears to be at face value.

So, what is the reality here? or more specifically, how does your system/risk management account for the discrepancy between the data shows, and why that is not relevant or material to how your method will perform in the future?

And now I will make a direct statement... I noticed just as I am answering this that several here have also inquired as to what is going on... and rather than give an honest explanation, you take some sort of defensive posturing, either via a passive aggressive response, a non-response, or by saying, in effect, it's "none of your business because i don't have anything to prove to you"

And while you would be correct in saying such, the real problem is your quick to point out the success, but essentially even refusing to acknowledge the potential pitfalls.

I personally have found that every successful trader i've ever spoken with actually almost ENJOYS looking at the potential pitfalls... because it's a disregard of such pitfalls that would have prevented them from being successful in the first place.

and I suppose I do mean to rattle your cage here a bit, but not so much out of spite (though I kinda think you'll take it that way, as you react to questions about your trading methodology in a closed off and somewhat defensive manner...I can only assume a similar reaction when someone actually IS addressing you personally).... but it says something about a person when people on this forum ask questions, sometimes because they are looking to realize a dream, and think you may have SOME clue as to how thye might get there, or what lessons both good and bad they might learn from others... you, me...whoever....

and then you respond to their thoughts with some version of "forget you, I'm not gonna talk about it"

And yes, some are trolling... but, i've found the best, most effective response that stops trolls dead in their tracks... and I"m gonna tell you.

It's full, unabashed, sincere honesty. Honesty in acknowledging what they are possibly correct about, as well as a full explanation regarding things they are not correct about.

Futhermore, if their only intent is to attack you... you'll find such honesty naturally attracts even more who will counter attack...because they don't care about whether your system is the secret to it all...or not... but they find it attractive that someone is willing to be so honest, and they won't be able to stand seeing some jackoff try to degrade someone UNFAIRLY... (that being the key word)

And when people open up like this, it creates potential helpful advisors, rather than cynical adversaries. It also keeps both parties open to learning from each other... maybe they really have an idea or suggestion that could help make what you have better.

Maybe you have something to show them that'll change the way they look things...and it might lead them to their dream much more quickly.

But, it seems you would rather not here it. That is either incredibly arrogant (because you know it all and no one has anything to give).... or incredibly insecure (because anythhing they say is a direct attack on you, and you can't stand the thought of that)

I mean, wow... really? this is an anonymous, nameless faceless forum after all.... no one here can be THAT much of a threat to you.

Anyway. I don't expect much of an answer. I just hope that sometime down the line, you consider this sort of thing as you persue trading (or life...whatever)

I mean, i couldn't be more honest when I say it really won't matter to me, or I think anyone else here, in any way at all.

but maybe, you'll find new ways of looking at trading, or the markets...and maybe someone will learn from you.

::::::

I mean, you did post your account results very publicly, and posted up when you took trades, and how much you made this day/week/etc....

so, if it's not for learning, and sharing, and getting real feedback from people who know better, as well as sharing your ways with those who know less.... what the hell is the point? to show off? to have others confirm that your "special" because you obviously can't decide that for yourself? personal validation? ego aggrandizement? just to pound on your chest as if to say "look at me do this thing you can't do, hahaha!"

Because if that's the case... rather than post your link to your Myfxbook stats, just put in your signature: "I'm here for me, not you, I only want your superficial praise but not your concern or anything other than unjustified approval, and if this one way street isn't to your liking.... then piss off"

At least I would have known ahead of time to not waste my brain power or the skin cells on my fingertips as I typed out my inquiry and thoughts.

Anyway, respond if your going to address anything I said above with an honest, non-defensive rebuttal if you care to. If it's not gonna be something mature and honest (you know, like the kind of communication that can actually share things between people)... then don't even bother.

I already have seen that you can do "trite, flippant, and dismissive" just fine... and such a response would only serve to validate to a greater degree what i've mentioned above.

X

P.S. - I don't expect a response, but would be pleasantly surprised should I see you actually address anything i've brought up here from a tone of cooperative communication and objective, well thought through rebuttals to what you disagree with.

Posts, like the one Forextraderx wrote, actually makes this forum attractive. That is joyful to read, well done once again sir

Furthermore, addressing Daytrader74, it would be more beneficial to some of us if you rather posted charts regarding your entries than just saying how much you made that day/week...

Just my two cents.

FF has the cash rate remaining the same next week. I read many articles stating high chances (75% or higher) that there'll be a rate cut. You guys think a rate cut's been priced in or there'll be a drop if it does?

I think some of it's been priced in, but there will of course be a "surprise" element as skeptics and optimists alike realize they are wrong... whatever the result ends up being.


I do know this... I'm not too concerned with whether they cut rates or not. However, if they cut rates, but the market starts to move up past todays highs and closes up there.... I'll look to get a longer term, somewhat large long position in the AUD.

and of course if they don't cut rates, and the market sells off strongly... I'll see this as a sign that we are on our way down...down... maybe even to 0.90

Either of these situations I find would be more profitable (and have a much higher accuracy) then trying to guess if they will or won't lower rates.

Why guess both what might happen, and then also what the market might do in response...

when you can just wait and see what does happen, and see what the market does in response. If they cut rates but price moves up... guess what? the rate cut was totally priced in.... and the market is telling you its now time to go up.

pretty logical actually. Thats how I will be looking to decide to trade it, if i do trade it.

X

thanks for your insight! i've been trying to figure out ways to see if something is "priced in" or not.

are there any other factors one should look at that may drop some clues? futures? bonds? if so, what are the things to look for?