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  • #3,641
  • May 31, 2012 12:25pm May 31, 2012 12:25pm
Quoting Czecze
Anyone else on UJ?

Maybe a little too premature to buy at this massive daily bear candle but the level is great and I also got a tight stop to shoot for a greater R.

But I will short for sure again at 78.7

Attachment
Was in 2 minds on this one because the level was actually support last just after the breakout back in February, so I passed. Does look like a strong level though.

There is a level down at 77.75 which also looks like a good solid level and this was resistance last.
  • #3,642
  • May 31, 2012 12:26pm May 31, 2012 12:26pm
Quoting mazdaq100
Has anyone taken the Gold SFP? I haven't as I wasn't sure if the swing point was significant enough and I couldn't find any other confluence to encourage me to take the trade.

I do struggle with defining exactly how significant a swing point needs to be in order to take an SFP against it. I would not call this swing point a significant one at all but I have seen many of these minor swing points work.

However, I am trying to be more disciplined and to not trade if I am in any doubt.
It's a good point maz.

As nymeria says, concentrate on the A grade set-ups that should leap out at us, the ones where we are scrabbling about trying to justify a trade should be left on the side imho.

Experience will also play a part over time, and of course keeping accurate records allows us to better understand how a certain pair likes to move.

Be fastidious, it pays.
  • #3,643
  • May 31, 2012 1:17pm May 31, 2012 1:17pm
Quoting Quidsey
It's a good point maz.

As nymeria says, concentrate on the A grade set-ups that should leap out at us, the ones where we are scrabbling about trying to justify a trade should be left on the side imho.

Experience will also play a part over time, and of course keeping accurate records allows us to better understand how a certain pair likes to move.

Be fastidious, it pays.
Thanks nymeria and Quidsey for your replies. Very good advice. I'm keeping a record of the SFPs I have rejected and the reasons for rejecting them so over time, I should get idea of what constitutes an A+ SFP setup and which are substandard.

I will concentrate on just the major swing points and the most obvious setups from now on.

One thing I have just thought of is if you have D1 bias, I do think it would be valid to take SFPs against minor swing points like these, but only in those circumstances.
  • #3,644
  • May 31, 2012 2:37pm May 31, 2012 2:37pm
Quoting mazdaq100
One thing I have just thought of is if you have D1 bias, I do think it would be valid to take SFPs against minor swing points like these, but only in those circumstances.
Yes, that's where your stats come in handy again.
  • #3,645
  • May 31, 2012 2:48pm May 31, 2012 2:48pm
This is going against my USDJPY trade I am still in but I will give it a go...good lvl,low risk, 3R.

FTA on that 15min kinda scary...

edit: 25% off the table..stopp loss below recent low

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ucad.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,646
  • May 31, 2012 3:03pm May 31, 2012 3:03pm
Some good points made by Nymeria & Quidsey that should be taken to heart.

Quoting nymeria
There are enough trades between SFP and the break & retests that there is no reason to take anything other than the most obvious set-ups.
Quoting Quidsey

concentrate on the A grade set-ups that should leap out at us, the ones where we are scrabbling about trying to justify a trade should be left on the side imho.
My limit triggered for the UCAD long, it's bounced and is fighting FTA right now.
  • #3,647
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:17am Jun 1, 2012 1:17am
EJ D1 SFP, now long @9690..... trading on freaky friday?
  • #3,648
  • Jun 1, 2012 1:34am Jun 1, 2012 1:34am
  • #3,649
  • Jun 1, 2012 2:42am Jun 1, 2012 2:42am
Not the cleanest break or level (and it's NFEP Friday), but EURGB breaking out long.

olpip
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp 01.may.12.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #3,650
  • Edited 3:32am Jun 1, 2012 2:48am | Edited 3:32am
NZDUSD yesterday was a bit frustrating. I couldn't be at my computer and I don't like setting trades to fire while I'm away. Had I been around, I'd have sold the break of the inside bar under the arrow (we were close to the level and momentum was fading) and been 50 pips ahead by now.

Oh well, plenty more where that came from (I hope).

Edited to add: new level forming at ~0.7498, and looking like about to be broken.

olpip.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 01.may.12.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #3,651
  • Jun 1, 2012 5:11am Jun 1, 2012 5:11am
Looking for RR on AUDUSD @ D1 Level 0.96655 (needs one more six in there )

Disappointed I got to busy with work to lodge a pending to catch the EURJPY retest.

Loving Silver from 28.01 and 28.78. Look to add at the a retest of 27.53 level or most likely will wait for a retest of the bigger 27.33 (D1 level).
  • #3,652
  • Jun 1, 2012 7:16am Jun 1, 2012 7:16am
Quoting 9047
Looking for RR on AUDUSD @ D1 Level 0.96655 (needs one more six in there )

Disappointed I got to busy with work to lodge a pending to catch the EURJPY retest.

Loving Silver from 28.01 and 28.78. Look to add at the a retest of 27.53 level or most likely will wait for a retest of the bigger 27.33 (D1 level).
I might wait on silver and not be to greedy.

Looking at the next stop for the EJ turns the clock way back. To a time when we were all relieved that the Y2K bug didn't bring about the end of the world and the Eurozone was busy seeing the new millennium in with a recession. At this time the EJ set a record pounding out an all time low at about 88.90.

So park one eye attachment A (Y2K) and the second on attachment B (now).

So back in the day the levels are:

  1. Rally highs @ 96.11 (our next stop)
  2. Trusty old yen pair spike into the FTA @ 95.11
  3. RR after all time lows @ 91.28
  4. Rock bottom - waiting for test @ 89.90


And today EJ is a lovely see of red today marks 9 consecutive down days. I haven't looked back but I'd hazard a guess that this is possibly a record! (Crikey why did I exit my short at the FTA the other day!!!!). Importantly we've broken the D1 97.043 with a lovely re-test. But we haven't been into this price range since .... you guessed it the world was subjected to Windows ME - (this operating system caused such dismay that no-one wanted to use computers - hence causing the recession! Shame on you Bill).

So has EJ priced in all the pain ahead into the last 9 days or are we going to see the streak continue into next week? Will we find a new all-time low? Time will tell and the levels will be an interesting test of just how much this is a memory game.

Enjoy!

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a_eurjpy_y2k.jpg Size: 125 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: b_eurjpy_2day.jpg Size: 69 KB
  • #3,653
  • Edited 5:36am Jun 3, 2012 5:25am | Edited 5:36am
very interesting setup on AUD/USD daily... SFP with huge pinbar.

Failed to break low from November 2011 (red line) and low from several days ago (blue line).

Additional EUR/USD daily printed a nice bullish engulfing.

How to play is the question now...

1) wait for a better price to buy on a dip
2) just use for direction for further trades
------------------
USD/CAD has 2 nice levels to watch for upcoming week.

1) 1.03 area - we have seen a retest on a intraday basis but we might get another chance to buy into it if we are being presented with SFP or different pattern

2) 1,042 area - we can see a SFP on a daily chart BUT the actual last candle is showing too much strenght to just short blindly i.m.o. . Better idea probably is to wait for an intraday setup or a break and retest for additional longs

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD(Daily)20120603122016.jpg Size: 106 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UCAD.png Size: 30 KB
  • #3,654
  • Jun 3, 2012 6:02am Jun 3, 2012 6:02am
[quote=Czecze;5723397]very interesting setup on AUD/USD daily... SFP with huge pinbar.]

yes a great pinbar, i think following wizards advice, we have to look for an entry ( sfp, pinbar, eb ) in the 1 hour timeframe
  • #3,655
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:35pm Jun 3, 2012 2:35pm
What I'm watching this week...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 172 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au1.jpg Size: 98 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 96 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.jpg Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd.jpg Size: 102 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: nj.jpg Size: 96 KB
  • #3,656
  • Jun 3, 2012 2:36pm Jun 3, 2012 2:36pm
One more...
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  • #3,657
  • Jun 3, 2012 8:50pm Jun 3, 2012 8:50pm
What I'm looking for this week.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audnzd_20120604.jpg Size: 93 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd_20120604.jpg Size: 83 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurjpy_20120604.jpg Size: 87 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurnzd_20120604.jpg Size: 101 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd_20120604.jpg Size: 85 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy_20120604.jpg Size: 70 KB
  • #3,658
  • Jun 3, 2012 9:11pm Jun 3, 2012 9:11pm
Great charts 9047, thanks for posting.
  • #3,659
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:31pm Jun 3, 2012 10:31pm
Revised EURAUD over lunch break.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud_v2_20120604.jpg Size: 78 KB
  • #3,660
  • Jun 3, 2012 10:37pm Jun 3, 2012 10:37pm
Quoting sam0182
Great charts 9047, thanks for posting.
Thanks Sam ... your charts tend to more accurate than mine

Looks like my EURNZD might be wrong.

Keeping a close eye on any of AUD crosses in the lead up to RBA meeting tomorrow. General predictions are for 0.5-0.75 basis point cut.
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