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The perfect trading system

  • #421
  • May 17, 2012 1:04pm May 17, 2012 1:04pm
News are manipulated and could be deceptive. If you trade the 1000 pips circle or understand the weekly and monthly analysis, you will always be in a better position to understand where the fundamental news will push the price. I will discuss fundamental analysis one of the these days.

Quoting Mr.chia
articulate, i trading without looking the news, because some news is not right, i trading only looking the candle(weekly, daily,h4, h1 and m15), my analisys more important is weekly and daily candle,sometimes h4,h1 and m15, i am not so interest with fundamental analisys. How do you think,articulate?????i am have not time to looking the news and find others news.JBU
  • #422
  • May 18, 2012 8:50am May 18, 2012 8:50am
Quoting Articulate
News are manipulated and could be deceptive. If you trade the 1000 pips circle or understand the weekly and monthly analysis, you will always be in a better position to understand where the fundamental news will push the price. I will discuss fundamental analysis one of the these days.
articulate ,i am ready to listening , gbpusd pull back again, maybe good position for to put my buy limit, if pull to 1.5850, maybe time to buy, but i still waiting daily candle,i need 2 or 3 daily candle to make decision, but its depend how far its pull back, next week will be..........oh i am not patient.....he he
  • #423
  • May 20, 2012 1:28pm May 20, 2012 1:28pm
Quoting Mr.chia
articulate ,i am ready to listening , gbpusd pull back again, maybe good position for to put my buy limit, if pull to 1.5850, maybe time to buy, but i still waiting daily candle,i need 2 or 3 daily candle to make decision, but its depend how far its pull back, next week will be..........oh i am not patient.....he he
maybe 1 or 2 weekly candle to confirm, how do you think articulate???depend how far its pull back, some pairs need more than 3 weeks to confirm. i will wait your analisys .JBU
  • #424
  • May 21, 2012 5:47pm May 21, 2012 5:47pm
ARTICULATE, GBPUSD , i still waiting for sign to buy,when the price in zona 1.5850-1.5900 , AUDUSD AND NZDUSD position buy, in my analysis, how about your analysis.JBU
REgrads
  • #425
  • Edited May 24, 2012 5:55am May 23, 2012 3:15pm | Edited May 24, 2012 5:55am
[quote=Articulate;5677588]Mission accomplished! 50% retrace completed. After 50% retrace of 1000 pips move what next? Price can go either way. Yes it can either drop to 1.5300 or back to 1.6300 and above. I.5800 is the place to watch. Last month's gain is now totally wiped off. Price is currently sitting on both the monthly and weekly support. Will it hold or will Greece crisis turn the support to resistance? The weekly candles will tell us. Go back and read my post on how to recognise breakout for what to look out for.

/quote]

Before I begin my analysis let me discuss what happened last week. It took 14 candles about four months to complete a 1000 pips journey, but three weeks to complete a 500 pips reversal. Last week’s candle alone yielded over 400 pips. What happens clearly pointed out the important of patience and timing in forex trading. The monthly candle has reversed the gains for last month and is threatening to wipe out the gains for the last two months. it looks like a very large bear. Will it reverse the gains for the first four months of the year or end up a bullish candle with a long pin? Anything is possible in forex, but if you follow the market one weekly candle at a time, one resistance/support level at time, you will always be on the profitable track. Now back our discussion for this week.

Let me quote part of the post above to remind us of where I stand on the cable. Last week's candle closed at 1.5808, right on top of a support. You know I said after 50% retrace price could go either way. What do you do in such scenario? A full week's candle will tell you where price will go. It will close above 1.5800 to confirm reversal or below 1.5800 to indicate continuation of the bearish run. Then go back to your chart and identify the nearest support and resistance to know where it is heading. In this case the nearest support and resistance are as follows:

1.6000 - the psychological support turned resistance
1.5600 - the nearest support

While waiting for this week's candle to close what do we do?

Firstly, after the close of trading every Monday, check the candle for the week and see how it looks. A pin above the weekly candle is an indication of a failed bullish attempt while a pin below indicates a failed bearish attempt. Most times price movements on Mondays are usually false. Experienced day traders ignore Mondays and trade only from Tuesdays-Thursdays.

Secondly, go to your Daily trade-friendly chart and see where the RSI is. Has it taken a dip into the yellow zone below 30 point mark. My daily trade-friendly chart tells me that the time is getting ripe to go long, but it can go as low as 20.56 point Will it get there? I don't know, but technical analysis tells me that 20.65 is the safest point in history to place a buy on the daily-friendly chart. In case, it doesn't get there, the failure of at least 3-4 daily candles to break a support while the RSI is in the yellow zone is a signal that it is safe to enter a trade.

If you are interested in a short term trades (50 pips or less) while waiting for the daily candles to give you signals whether to go long or short, go to your H4 50 PPAA chart and trade in the direction of the weekly from Tuesday until you receive signals first from the daily chart and finally the weekly chart.

What do I mean by trade in the direction of the weekly? If by Tuesday of any week, the week's candle is bearish, sell at every pull back if four H4 candles fail to break higher. Conversely if the week's candle is bullish, buy at every pull back if four H4 candles fail to break lower.

For H4 50 PPAA, you should aim at about 50 pips per trade. You should either set you TP at 50 pips or close these trades two H4 candles after your entry candle. For example if you enter the trade at the 8:00 a.m. candle, you either close it when you get 50 pips of close the trade at 8:00 p.m. candle. Remember, these short term trade while waiting for signals on the higher time frames.


I attach the weekly, monthly daily and H4 charts as usual for a better understanding of the above analysis.

Enjoy your week!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbusd - monthly.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbusd - weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbusd - daily friendly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gpbusd - h4.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #426
  • May 24, 2012 10:58am May 24, 2012 10:58am
AUDUSD AND NZDUSD still waiting for daily candle , we need 2 or 3 candle reverse, maybe last week or wait 2 weeks again , my analysis for buy is wrong, patient.......i need patient.......... he he , it just 1 daily candle reverse. JBU
  • #427
  • May 24, 2012 1:46pm May 24, 2012 1:46pm
Quoting Mr.chia
AUDUSD AND NZDUSD still waiting for daily candle , we need 2 or 3 candle reverse, maybe last week or wait 2 weeks again , my analysis for buy is wrong, patient.......i need patient.......... he he , it just 1 daily candle reverse. JBU
If you want to trade currency pairs, you need to understand them. Here is the updated 20 years Mastercharts for AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Replicate the chart on your platform, insert 50 PPAA and study carefully how the weekly, daily and H4 candles behave around the various levels. Furthermore, use my monthly price action analysis to identify where prices are in Nov/Dec for some few years, and the highest and lowest prices for each year. This exercise will give you a better understanding of these pairs and assist you in taking a better decision.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd 20 years.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd 20 years.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #428
  • May 28, 2012 6:19am May 28, 2012 6:19am
Quoting Articulate

1.6000 - the psychological support turned resistance
1.5600 - the nearest support
Here is the nearest support and resistance levels:

1.6300 - Masterchart Resistance
1.6000 - the psychological resistance
1.5800 - the nearest resistance
1.5600 - the nearest support
1.5300 - Masterchart support

The weekly trend is still bearish, but 1.5600 is a barrier to the bear for now. Let us wait for the end of today's trading for an indication of where the weekly candle is going. Will it be a bear or bull? The daily friendly chart is screaming buy, supported by optimism about Greece. Let's wait and see what the weekly candle will say tomorrow.
  • #429
  • May 28, 2012 11:33am May 28, 2012 11:33am
Quoting Articulate
Here is the nearest support and resistance levels:

1.6300 - Masterchart Resistance
1.6000 - the psychological resistance
1.5800 - the nearest resistance
1.5600 - the nearest support
1.5300 - Masterchart support

The weekly trend is still bearish, but 1.5600 is a barrier to the bear for now. Let us wait for the end of today's trading for an indication of where the weekly candle is going. Will it be a bear or...
ARTICULATE,TQ I WILL WAITING YOUR POSTING JBU
  • #430
  • May 29, 2012 9:21am May 29, 2012 9:21am
Articulate ,may u tell me your analisys about audusd and nzdusd,still bearish ??or i STILL need waiting for weekly candle???
  • #431
  • May 29, 2012 10:08am May 29, 2012 10:08am
Quoting Articulate
Here is the nearest support and resistance levels:

1.6300 - Masterchart Resistance
1.6000 - the psychological resistance
1.5800 - the nearest resistance
1.5600 - the nearest support
1.5300 - Masterchart support

The weekly trend is still bearish, but 1.5600 is a barrier to the bear for now. Let us wait for the end of today's trading for an indication of where the weekly candle is going. Will it be a bear or bull? The...
This week’s candle is still bearish, but a very small bear (76 pips) as at the time or writing, the daily candles have been consolidating for the past 3-4 days within the same tight range. What is the meaning of this? This is a clear evidence of consolidation. Price is being pressed like a "spring" and once the pressure is released price will fly through either red line below or yellow line above.

In this scenario, what do you do as a trader? Generally, most traders will wait for the break of either above the yellow line to go long and below the red line to sell. However, a trader with understanding of the Masterchart levels and 1000 PPPA, will realise that the ideal place for sell is at least 1.6300 or 1.6636 (if priced turnd from here) and the ideal place for buy is at least 1.5300.

In view of the fact that we are far from 1.6300/1.6636 and closer to 1.5300, is it wise to go long (buy) here? A trader with a superior trading strategy will:

a) Switch to the daily friendly chart and will see buy signal

b) See that the last three daily candles have fail to break 1.5650

c) See that it is safe to place a buy between 1.5600 and 1.5700

d) Will see the daily candles with two identical pins are clear sign of reversal

d) Will see that last week's candle is floating on the 1.5600 support

e) Will see from the monthly that a giant bear is usually followed by a bull since financial meltdown in 2008. Why? The economies of most countries are in shambles. It is therefore a matter of good news followed by the bad ones.

My recommendation therefore is wait for the 4th candle from London open i.e. 8:00 p.m. London time today to place your buy, within the range in c) above.

As you can see, I have my buy limit at 1.5600. If is not taken by then, I will check the chart at 8:00 p.m. to place my buy for another ride to at least 1.6000 or 1.6300 or even 1.6636 for another 1000 pips ride to the top, over the next 15-30 days.

In case I am wrong with my analysis, my stop loss is 50 pips below 1.5600 i.e. 1.5550.

This is the way to plan a trade. Have a comprehensive plan in place, including an exit strategy in case things go wrong.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2greece gpbjpy - monthly.gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2greece gpbjpy - weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2greece gpbjpy - daily.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 2greece gpbjpy - daily rose hook.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #432
  • May 29, 2012 4:43pm May 29, 2012 4:43pm
Quoting ha-pattern
The Holy Grail is never caught, just chased. Some tire, others don't know when to stop, and a very few say, "This is enough for me."
I like it
  • #433
  • May 30, 2012 3:12am May 30, 2012 3:12am
Quoting Articulate
This week’s candle is still bearish, but a very small bear (76 pips) as at the time or writing, the daily candles have been consolidating for the past 3-4 days within the same tight range. What is the meaning of this? This is a clear evidence of consolidation. Price is being pressed like a "spring" and once the pressure is released price will fly through either red line below or yellow line above.

[color=black][font=Verdana]In case I am wrong with my analysis, my stop loss is 50 pips below 1.5600 i.e....

The weekly bear is getting bigger (about 150+ pips) As you can see from the charts, my pending order at 1.5600 was taken and is now in -29 pips (loss) because the daily and weekly candle broke through 1.5600 barrier. Is it a false breakout or genuine continuation of the bearish run? Will it close above or below 1.5600? Is the trade premature? The close of this week's candle will tell. However, my exit strategy is at 1.5550. If you are in this trade, pick any stop loss you are comfortabe with because If 1.5600 is taken, then 1.5300, Masterchart support, is a huge possibility.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: new greece gpbusd - weekly.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: new greece gpbusd - daily.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #434
  • May 30, 2012 9:36am May 30, 2012 9:36am
thanks, very interesting, but there is no such perfect trading system..
  • #435
  • May 30, 2012 1:31pm May 30, 2012 1:31pm
Quoting Articulate
The weekly bear is getting bigger (about 150+ pips) The daily and weekly candle broke through 1.5600 barrier. Is it a false breakout or genuine continuation of the bearish run? Will it close above or below 1.5600? Is the trade premature?
The stop loss at 1.5550 was taken. The trade above was definitely premature. This further confirms that the weekly candle as the most reliable guide. Although five continous bearish candles at this time of the year is very unusual, but in forex anything can happen. An exit strategy should be an intergral part of your trading plan, because anything can happen in forex. What is however sure is that whatever happens the weekly candle will never deceive you.

The Greece crisis is still having a gripping effect on the market. Spain is beginning to appear on the horizon. The bears are in control all over. The next few weeks will be interesting. I will now shift my attention to the weekly candles and share anything intersting here.

Enjoy the rest of the week!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: new greece gpbusd - weekly.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #436
  • May 30, 2012 1:42pm May 30, 2012 1:42pm
Quoting reynuevo
thanks, very interesting, but there is no such perfect trading system..

You are right, nothing is perfect in this imperfect world. The inclusion of an exit strategy is what make this a perfect system. You enter trades based on sound analysis and you know when and where to exit on your own terms.
  • #437
  • May 30, 2012 7:08pm May 30, 2012 7:08pm
Quoting Articulate
You are right, nothing is perfect in this imperfect world. The inclusion of an exit strategy is what make this a perfect system. You enter trades based on sound analysis and you know when and where to exit on your own terms.
articulate i am agree with you, weekly candle ,most important for reverse trend, i have 2 position sell audusd 0,9860 and 0,9790 and hit my TP this morning 0,9715,thanks Jesus, now i still waiting nzdusd hit my TP 0.7475,i sell 0.7620 and 0.7555
  • #438
  • May 31, 2012 7:25am May 31, 2012 7:25am
On the way up, the EURUSD from its lowest level at 0.82225 in year 2000, the pair broke the long-term boundary 1.2000 in 2003. Since then it made 2 attemtps in 2004 and 2005 to break this but failed. A third attempt was made in 2010 which also failed. The general sentiment now is that the pair is making a fouth attemp at 1.2000, some people are even beginning to talk of parity i.e. 1.0000. My view 1.2000 is a huge possibily, but 1.2500 needs to clearly taken by the weekly, then we attack 1.2000, before we begin to talk about parity. For the EURO, it is matter of 500 pips a time.

Because I don't trade Euro regularly how the price will behave between now and 1.2000 is the area I will be watching carefully.

I attach the monthly and weekly charts for the above analysis.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: new eurusd - monthly.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: new eurusd - weekly.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #439
  • May 31, 2012 11:11am May 31, 2012 11:11am
Quoting Articulate
On the way up, the EURUSD from its lowest level at 0.82225 in year 2000, the pair broke the long-term boundary 1.2000 in 2003. Since then it made 2 attemtps in 2004 and 2005 to break this but failed. A third attempt was made in 2010 which also failed. The general sentiment now is that the pair is making a fouth attemp at 1.2000, some people are even beginning to talk of parity i.e. 1.0000. My view 1.2000 is a huge possibily, but 1.2500 needs to clearly taken by the weekly, then we attack 1.2000, before we begin to talk about parity. For the...
finally i take profit my nzdusd 0.7532,
articulate, i agree with you , I don't trade Euro regularly too, wait in the zona 1.1000 -1.2000,waiting for 1 reverse weekly candle ,must pull back 400-500pip, and put buy limit , 1.2000 very strong zona, but articulate, you must know too many crazy trader just follow the direction , he he he
  • #440
  • May 31, 2012 5:22pm May 31, 2012 5:22pm
Hi Articulate,

GBPUSD is about to complete the 1000 pips run from 1.63 to 1.53, should I place a buy limit at 1.53 or wait for a reversal candle. Thanks.
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